Layton_Seasider
Vital Football Hero
Yesterday was the most welcome of wins, the first time in nearly 2 years we have notched 3 league wins in a row. So as the season gets closer to ending, yes I know it's just over 3 months off, or 14 weeks, we will all start to look at permutations of our promotion odds or the probability.
I've had a look back at the final standings of previous League 1 tables (excluding the 2019/20 'Covid' season) and worked with the data and compiled averages as a very rough guide for what we may need to do to gain promotion from here on in.
Points totals:
22/23: Auto - 98. Play Off - 77
21/22: Auto - 90. Play Off - 83
20/21: Auto - 87. Play Off - 74
18/19: Auto - 91. Play Off - 73
17/18: Auto - 96. Play Off - 71
Average for auto = 92.4
Average for play offs = 75.6
We are currently on 45 points from 28. So to go up automatically, and with just 18 games to go, there is a liklihood we would need 48 more points, which would mean 15 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. Or 16 wins and 2 losses. Very unlikely!
To go up via the playoffs we could possibly need just 31 more points, which would mean 10 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses! (Or other permutations of and including that total).
Then in the playoffs games 2 wins out of 3. That is certainly doable.
Looking at games we have, we have a lot of top and bottom clubs to play.
I've had a look back at the final standings of previous League 1 tables (excluding the 2019/20 'Covid' season) and worked with the data and compiled averages as a very rough guide for what we may need to do to gain promotion from here on in.
Points totals:
22/23: Auto - 98. Play Off - 77
21/22: Auto - 90. Play Off - 83
20/21: Auto - 87. Play Off - 74
18/19: Auto - 91. Play Off - 73
17/18: Auto - 96. Play Off - 71
Average for auto = 92.4
Average for play offs = 75.6
We are currently on 45 points from 28. So to go up automatically, and with just 18 games to go, there is a liklihood we would need 48 more points, which would mean 15 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. Or 16 wins and 2 losses. Very unlikely!
To go up via the playoffs we could possibly need just 31 more points, which would mean 10 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses! (Or other permutations of and including that total).
Then in the playoffs games 2 wins out of 3. That is certainly doable.
Looking at games we have, we have a lot of top and bottom clubs to play.