"I'm afraid it isn't as simple as some seem to think." | Page 4 | Vital Football

"I'm afraid it isn't as simple as some seem to think."

To bowdlerise the brilliant Chris Morris on the equally exceptional 'The Day Today':

"A thousand people died from coronavirus today. But they were old and would have died soon anyway. "
 
I think we can get this done reasonably quickly. We should remove the lock-down and open care-homes and hospital wards to as many visitors as possible, especially encouraging young, asymptomatic corana-virus carriers to visit their elderly and disabled relatives.

Although, it does strike me that this is a bit haphazard. Perhaps it would simply be better to ship all these people off to covid-camps to get the job done. A solution that seems fittingly final.

With good planning, I think we could be watching football by early August.

What do you think, Brendan Bradley?
 
Brendan Bradley said:
We'll know at the end of the year.
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Aye, there's the rub. Trouble with this thing is we can only see it in the rear view mirror. Is Sweden right or is New Zealand right? Is Bolsonara right or Merkel right?

This is being made up as is goes along as no one has a scooby doo. It's not an old person's, soon to die, killer. An otherwise healthy 32 year old was helped into a body bag by a doctor I know.

Complacency will cost lives, an overreaction will cost jobs - and lives. As for the garbage coming out of the White House....
 
I bet Brendan loves Logans run. His Eugenics Master Dominic Cummings Esq is on the expert medical 'ehem' committee!
 
NottyImp said:
I think we can get this done reasonably quickly. We should remove the lock-down and open care-homes and hospital wards to as many visitors as possible, especially encouraging young, asymptomatic corana-virus carriers to visit their elderly and disabled relatives.

Although, it does strike me that this is a bit haphazard. Perhaps it would simply be better to ship all these people off to covid-camps to get the job done. A solution that seems fittingly final.

With good planning, I think we could be watching football by early August.

What do you think, Brendan Bradley?
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Unbelievably enough, your first paragraph was pretty much the UK governments first strategy plan, with their "herd immunity' idea.
 
Brendan Bradley said:
We'll know at the end of the year. This is different because it's very severe on the elderly, but for anyone under 50 with no other complaint it's a barely visible blip on the chart. All the excess deaths are in the age groups over 70.

And he's not the only scientist who holds that opinion there are many others (including the one advising the Swedish government) but the point about experts is well taken

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Cross posted from the Coronavirus thread

Initial work by the Economist on estimated excess deaths from various countries.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

So far, Italy’s national statistical bureau has published figures of deaths from all causes for only 1,700 of the country’s 7,900 municipalities, covering the period until April 4th. We have analysed a sample of these areas, including Bergamo, which contain 7.2m of the 10m residents in Lombardy, the worst-affected region. Between March 1st (the week Lombardy passed 50 official fatalities) and April 4th , this sample suffered about 6,100 official covid-19 deaths , according to our estimate. In the same period, it registered 12,800 excess deaths . This suggests that the official numbers captured 48% of the true estimated excess.

Spain’s national epidemiology centre is publishing figures for deaths from all causes. Between March 11th (the week Spain passed 50 official fatalities) and April 7th , the country recorded 13,800 official covid-19 deaths . In the same period it registered 21,100 excess deaths . This suggests that the official numbers captured 65% of the estimated excess.

The data on excess deaths up to April 7th show that Spain’s weekly deaths have reached a plateau. However, the epidemiology centre has been retrospectively revising total mortality numbers upwards, so it may still augment the most recent figures.

France’s national statistical bureau has published figures for deaths from all causes up to April 6th. Between March 10th (the week France passed 50 official fatalities) and April 6th , the country recorded 8,900 official covid-19 deaths , including those from care homes. In the same period it registered 11,400 excess deaths . This suggests that the official numbers captured 78% of the estimated excess.

Britain’s daily covid-19 toll, which is published by the health ministry and based on submissions from hospitals, reached 16,000 on April 19th. However, the national statistical bureau has produced an expanded covid-19 estimate after analysing the probable causes mentioned on death certificates up to April 10th. These revised numbers are shown in our charts.

Between March 14th (the week England and Wales passed 50 official fatalities) and April 10th , the region recorded 10,300 official covid-19 deaths , according to the revised estimate. In the same period it registered 15,200 excess deaths . This suggests that the official numbers captured 68% of the estimated excess.

The Dutch national statistical bureau has published figures for deaths from all causes up to April 12th. Between March 16th (the week the Netherlands passed 50 official fatalities) and April 12th , the country recorded 2,600 official covid-19 deaths . In the same period it registered 6,200 excess deaths . This suggests that the official numbers captured 43% of the estimated excess.

The Swedish national statistical bureau is publishing regular figures for deaths from all causes. Between March 25th (the week Sweden passed 50 official fatalities) and April 7th the country recorded 555 official covid-19 deaths . In the same period it registered 780 excess deaths . This suggests that the official numbers captured 71% of the estimated excess
 
Yes, yes, Sincilbanks. But most of those deaths in Sweden are just old people who are getting in the way of my inalienable right to watch football.
 
Retimp said:
One thing is for sure we ALL have to die of something.....eventually
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I received an e-mail from Nigeria last week that said if I sent them my bank details they would take £9.99 out of my account and I wouldn't have to die; ever.

I sent off the details and am now just waiting to see if it works. Nothing to lose from trying.
 
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Donald cannot be wrong everytime, surely?. Anyway I'll try the bleach later, but will give those toilet blocks a taste for starters!!!
 
cherryexile said:
I received an e-mail from Nigeria last week that said if I sent them my bank details they would take £9.99 out of my account and I wouldn't have to die; ever.

I sent off the details and am now just waiting to see if it works. Nothing to lose from trying.
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There was something on another thread. The same man was offering help with mathematics.
 
SIMJON said:
Unbelievably enough, your first paragraph was pretty much the UK governments first strategy plan, with their "herd immunity' idea.
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It's apparently even worse than that, the Telegraph reporting (and showing evidence) that hospitals were told to send older people out of the hospitals and back to care homes, and I quote, "two policy douments were published on March 19 and April 2 to transfer patients who no longer required hospital-level treatment, and set out a blueprint for care homes to accept patients who had Covid19 or had not been tested" (I believe that actually means patients who had Covid19 and then recovered, even I can't believe they were sending people who had tested positive and still showing symptoms back to care homes)

I suspect if deaths in care homes are measure we'll see a significant rise from about 2 weeks after these were published.

And in a lovely piece of Whitehall mandarin, Humphrey Appleby-esque speak, one is quoted as saying the policy to offload patients was designed as a "stiff broom" to free up capacity in the hospitals.

A DHSS official is quoted as saying "the safety of staff and residents 'is our top priority' and rules had been updated so those discharged from hospital would be tested, well hoo-f**king rah...

Of course if the government had got it's finger out over testing back in February we would have sufficient testing to have done this from the start and probably save several thousand lives of our most elderly and vulnerable...

Edited to add, and let's not forget the care home workers put at risk as well, so lavishly endowed by our government with PPE that they are making a single mask last a week
 
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