Forget Bury & Northampton but who else? | Vital Football

Forget Bury & Northampton but who else?

GRSGimmer

GRSGimmer

Vital Squad Member
Bury down and Cobblers can not catch us but it would be a brave man to predict the other 2 to go down - MK Dons look beyond help but who else - Rochdale, Oldham, Wombles, Walsall, Oxford or even us? Not sure 52 even will be enough.
 
Oldham have to play Rochdale, AFC ,Southend, Donny and Northampton.

Rochdale have to play Oldham, Bradford, Plymouth (all without their leading scorer Henderson), Oxford, Charlton.

AFC have got Oldham, Wigan, Donny, Bury.

Mk have got Southend, Bradford, Scunthorpe, Shrewsbury

Walsall have got Scunthorpe, Northampton, Bradford, Fleetwood
 
I think we have enough points now. I'm sure we will get at least one more point between now and the end of the season to make absolutely sure. A bit concerning we seem to have forgotten how to win games, but there will be a large turn over of players in the summer, so I don't think it should effect next season too much
 
Both MK and Walsall only have one home game each left. MK have Southend and Walsall have Northampton.

Unfortunately, they both still have to go to Bradford who are on a terrible run (apart from beating us, obviously). Don't know if they think they are on their summer holidays now they have dropped out of the play off picture.

With Rochdale battling their way out of it, I would still on balance go for MK and Walsall
 
Could be that our last ditch goal today sends Oldham down.

The bottom 3 look gone.

Rochdale are on a great revival (didn't see a win at Peterboro coming tho). The fact they have done so well over the last 6 weeks is the only reason they can still survive. They are doing a Gills/Plymouth and it's made it a lot tighter down there.

Dons, Oxford (& us?) just need to dot the "i's" to make sure we survive.

So I reckon the last spot will be between Oldham & Walsall.
 
It you look at everything including fixtures and goal difference the likelihood of everyone getting above us even if we didn't get another point is remote to say the least .I believe Lovell knows that it he gets the team lined up defensively in every game we will be safe .Grinding out results is not a great way to finish the season but if it gets us over the line .There is no prizes for finishing outside the top six .I am a bit surprised that Blackburn apart we have been fairly flat of late .I believe it points to exits within the team let alone the senior squad players .
Southend would have affected everyone . Including Lovell up to that moment ,I think he would have given many the benefit of the doubt in terms of new contracts .
 
After the season we've had can you really blame anyone for worrying Wayne? We've had one of the worst beginnings to a season that I've ever experienced in my time supporting the Gills, where we looked dead certs for relegation. Following our amazing surge up the table thanks to sir Steve, safety looked assured. But as football goes, we've hit a rough patch and we've slowly sunk down the table again.

We're probably safe, if nothing else it would be incredibly unlucky to get relegated with 52 points, but until we're mathematically safe there will always be those who worry.
 
Its a good job most of you doom mongers were not around when thing looked really dire - we all doomed.

We have been safe for weeks
 
I was happily holidaying in Athens when we played Forest on the last day of the season. It was only mathematically possible that we might go down if we lost and other results went against us. I was confident. And then the messages started pinging on my phone. That day scarred me. We are in a much better position than then. This year it is almost mathematically impossible for us to go down. Almost.
 
IMO it is the last relegation spot (21st) that is still up for grabs. With Bury doomed, Northampton and MK unlikely to escape, the team finishing 21st could well achieve 52/53 points with the permutation of games still to come with several of the bottom 6 or 7 sides still to play each other. Accepting we have a better goal difference it is unlikely to be us and I doubt we will lose the remaining 4 games. A critical game is Rochdale - Oldham tomorrow night.
 
If teams had played the same matches as us (42), then we could potentially be 4 points off relegation with 4 games to play. It's not that impossible for us to go down!
 
It is not currently impossible for us to finish on 64 points, or 52. Neither total will see us relegated.
 
LSB2 said:
If teams had played the same matches as us (42), then we could potentially be 4 points off relegation with 4 games to play. It's not that impossible for us to go down!
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Ah, but the teams with a game in hand are Rochdale and Oldham, and their games in hand are against each other on Tuesday. They can't both win, so either Rochdale win and we'd be 6 clear of Oldham in 21st, Oldham win and we'd be 7 clear of Rochdale, or they draw, and we'd still be 6 clear of Rochdale.

So basically, at full time on Tuesday, absolute worst case scenario would be that we're 6pts clear of the relegation zone, with 4 to play (for the team in 21st), 3 to play for us.

Wayne's bedwetter alert's going to go off in a minute.
 
The team in worst form near the bottom 4 is Walsall. Their only recent win was a scraped 1-0 against Bury, they have a winnable home game against Northampton left but their other 3 are away. They could easily go down with 51 points.
 
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