Football League likely to resume behind closed doors | Page 2 | Vital Football

Football League likely to resume behind closed doors

Taylor82 said:
I'm not homophobic. Come around, look at my CD collection. You'll find Queen, George Michael, Pet Shop Boys. They're all bummers.
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So fuck the brother then!!!! Apollyon would!!

(I'm joking Apollyon before you have another strop!)
 
Pope John XXIII said:
I agree.

I think we could possibly see a total redefining of football if we don't have a vaccine soon

I cannot see how next season starts with fans attending, and if fans aren't attending well over half the FL clubs won't be able to go on at all. I doubt many could survive a season like that

Mass, coordinated administration to lay off all the players and expensive contracts, an embracing of part time operating at least in the lower two divisions, possibly a deprofessionalisation of the whole FL is possible. Anyone who doesn't have a sugar daddy is fucked.

And of course, vultures will immediately claim that the PL needs to be a closed shop as a result.
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I honestly cannot see a coordinated administration; it would create far more problems for some Clubs than it would solve.

The only party who would benefit from that kind of move would be the players, who, incidentally, are guaranteed their money regardless of what happens, including Admin..

Lets look at how a coordinated administration would impact on Forest: Cash, Worrall, Johnson, Mighten, Samba and Sow all become free agents overnight.

The vultures would be in before the Official Receivers ink was dry; most if not all would be off in an instant.

The best part of 40m in transfer fees disappearing, although we would get 200k for the players who progressed through the Academy.

The Academy would be next in the cross hairs; all of the promising players we have nurtured will be off to PL Clubs.

Then we have the best Manager we have had since Frank Clarke who will also be out of contract; do you think he would stay and watch a mass exodus of players?

I do not think so somehow.

You are correct about the game being redefined but, when the dust has settled, I do not think it will be to the liking of you and me.

The greed of the PL Clubs will determine what happens and it will not be pretty when they start to flex their muscles.

They will undoubtedly press for the ring fenced option but I doubt they will get that sanctioned by UEFA and FIFA; they will be aware of that and will settle for a PL1 and PL2.

I have thought for some while now that a PL1 and PL2 is inevitable; being a natural cynic I think the current situation gives them the opportunity to make it happen while the rest of the Clubs are on their knees struggling for survival.

The regionalisation of football will become a distinct possibility for L1 and L2 with all clubs turning semi pro.

You can bet your mortgage that while most of the Country are busy marvelling at the heroics of the NHS workers, the greedy bastards in the PL will be busy working out how many other Clubs they can shaft to their advantage.
 
mao tse tung said:
I honestly cannot see a coordinated administration; it would create far more problems for some Clubs than it would solve.

The only party who would benefit from that kind of move would be the players, who, incidentally, are guaranteed their money regardless of what happens, including Admin..

Lets look at how a coordinated administration would impact on Forest: Cash, Worrall, Johnson, Mighten, Samba and Sow all become free agents overnight.

The vultures would be in before the Official Receivers ink was dry; most if not all would be off in an instant.

The best part of 40m in transfer fees disappearing, although we would get 200k for the players who progressed through the Academy.

The Academy would be next in the cross hairs; all of the promising players we have nurtured will be off to PL Clubs.

Then we have the best Manager we have had since Frank Clarke who will also be out of contract; do you think he would stay and watch a mass exodus of players?

I do not think so somehow.

You are correct about the game being redefined but, when the dust has settled, I do not think it will be to the liking of you and me.

The greed of the PL Clubs will determine what happens and it will not be pretty when they start to flex their muscles.

They will undoubtedly press for the ring fenced option but I doubt they will get that sanctioned by UEFA and FIFA; they will be aware of that and will settle for a PL1 and PL2.

I have thought for some while now that a PL1 and PL2 is inevitable; being a natural cynic I think the current situation gives them the opportunity to make it happen while the rest of the Clubs are on their knees struggling for survival.

The regionalisation of football will become a distinct possibility for L1 and L2 with all clubs turning semi pro.

You can bet your mortgage that while most of the Country are busy marvelling at the heroics of the NHS workers, the greedy bastards in the PL will be busy working out how many other Clubs they can shaft to their advantage.
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I agree with you on the general greed, but I fundamentally disagree on the inevitability of a PL1 and 2.

Both leagues would have no more than 16-18 teams, probably no more than 16 in the top flight. That's the draw for the top sides to vote for it. But that still means PL teams sharing their bounty with 12-14 other teams. Why would they want to do that?

I guarantee that they would get the requisite 14 votes to reduce the PL to 16 teams so long as 16 felt totally sure they would be on the right side of that line.

Top sides might vote to share PL money with more teams ONLY if the other clubs allow the end of collective bargaining and allow the big boys to negotiate their own TV deals. But that is the end of the PL concept; it won't be billions left over for the rest, it will be peanuts. Not SBC money but eventually it won't be much different.

So I am sceptical about the inevitability of this. If a European league appeared then it would be more logical, or if the PL governance changed to give more power to the top six. Beyond that, I just don't see it. There isn't enough motivation for 14 teams to vote to share their loot with so many more clubs.

It won't bring in a lot more TV money; who will really care about PL 2? What is different about it? Call it now and you have such big ratings getters as Preston, Millwall and Brentford. Derby would just squeeze in.

Sheffield Wednesday, Stoke, Birmingham, Ipswich, Bolton and Sunderland, all relatively big TV draws, would be out.
 
Try this for a scenario

- a number of clubs (let's say 30) across the football league announce that they are not going to be able to continue trading behind closed doors. They ask for emergency assistance or they will go into administration and likely liquidation. This includes at least 4 in the SBC (let's pretend it's Barnsley, Hull, Charlton, Wigan)

- they lobby for a mass collective administration for the entire football league in which all players and staff are released from their contracts. Clubs will then resign players (not necessarily the same ones!) According to either a salary cap or what they can afford

- National media start talking about the Football league going back to the stone age, heading down to non-league level of football, etc. How can the football league remain connected to the PL if it does this? The quality difference will make no sense.

- Several SBC clubs voice support for the plan, including some biggies; Sheffield Wednesday, Birmingham, Swansea, Reading.

- others, such as Derby, Cardiff, Forest (and others) oppose and threaten legal action. They sound out the PL about a PL2 and get told to fuck off.

- Leeds, West Brom, Fulham all declare their absolute opposition to the idea. However, rather than joining with legal action from the other clubs, they ask the PL for "help", citing their league positions and and readiness to join the league. The stumbling block is that there are too many of them.

- as the impass goes on and a new season still doesnt start, a couple of the opponent's (Bristol, Brentford) waver and offer tentative support to the "phoenix plan" as it becomes known. What seemed like a ridiculous idea now stands a better than 50% chance of being voted through.

- the turning point comes when a PL team (let's say Bournemouth hypothetically) announce that they cannot continue to finance themselves in the PL. Having had inside advice that the Phoenix plan is likely to get enough votes to pass if the SBC big three all leave (WB, L, F) they ask to be relegated to the SBC.

- PL agrees this; they then arbitrarily promote Leeds, West Brom and Fulham to make a 22 member league.

- SBC then has enough votes to carry the Phoenix plan. The whole FL goes into administration. All players and staff released.

- 22 PL teams snap up some talent, on fairly modest contracts, largely by budgeting to not renew expensive existing contracts.

- a free for all in the FL leaves clubs scrambling to put sides together. The distinction in quality between the leagues is largely lost. Immediately there is talk of regionalizing L1 and 2. This is discussed as happening next season.

- Karen Brady (or someone like her) goes in press demanding an end to relegation from the PL. She argues that PL clubs need financial security and assurance, and that the "chaos" in the FL means that there is no way the PL can allow such its members to be relegated into what is effectively a non league competition, let alone letting such low level teams hopelessly try to compete with the elite.

- meanwhile top clubs across Europe look to safeguard their income. The CL is expanded into an actual league for the following season. Clubs agree to keep it small for now (just 10 teams or so, playing 18 times). They will remain in their domestic leagues, so domestic leagues need sorting.

- in exchange for voting in a closed shop (maybe a "temporarily" closed shop, or promotion by election), the PL agrees to split into two leagues. A PL1 of just 6 teams and a PL 2 of 16. PL1 play each other 4 times, so just 32 games. There is one qualification spot for the new European league, with Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea or Man U having guarentees spots

One promotion relegation spot between the two leagues. PL1 clubs can opt out of the cups.
 
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I honestly cannot see that happening, Pope.

There are some elements which would appeal to me, but I am not the one who will be making the decisions; they will be made by the 20 teams in the PL.

There will be two factors which will drive the decision making process; greed for the top six or seven and self preservation for the rest.

I cannot see a 23 team PL happening for next season - that would be the case if the current top 3 get promoted, because there is not a chance in hell of a team being relegated if the campaign is not completed; the whole shooting match would grind to a halt, mired in legal action if they try.

UEFA would not allow it in a season which runs up to an already delayed Euro 20

The top clubs would veto it without a second thought; the last thing they will think about is what is fair or just or morally right.

You are correct in stating that a two tier PL would mean less teams in each division which means less gate money and a dilution of the TV money.

Personally, I think the top Clubs would buy that all day long.

Where is the real big jump in revenues going to come from for the big Clubs?

From the domestic game?

Sure, there will be some increases in revenues if things carry on as they are, but I do not think the increases will be enough to satisfy the likes of Liverpool or Manchester City in the long run.

The big increases will come from Europe.

AC Milan and other top Clubs are already making noises about extending the scope of the CL, and about ensuring there is a fast track in place for the top Clubs, which by passes any pre qualification.

A reduced PL would guarantee that there are dates free for more CL games to be played; more CL games brings in far more money than the PL could ever generate.

A last 16 stage of the CL with two groups of 8 playing home and away, for instance, would have the likes of Amazon waving a blank cheque at UEFA

A reduced PL2 of 16 or 18 teams would be enough to ensure no games would be played on CL nights, something the EFL have been in dispute with UEFA about for some time now.

I do not think a class action of administration would get beyond the talking stage; the long term ramifications for each Club would be catastrophic.

It sounds like a football agents wet dream, because the only benefactors in all of that would be the players and agents who are guaranteed their money; it would not surprise me if it was an agent who first floated the idea, it is that bad.

I would even question the legality of it, not to mention how morally repugnant it is.

We will be definitely be looking at a totally different footballing landscape in a few Months time.

Some Clubs will go to the wall, of that I am certain, others will be looking for opportunities - you can bet Mel has his team of crack lawyers all over this one.

You would hope that whatever happens, common sense will prevail and Clubs will start to live within their means, which is exactly the one thing which will not happen.
 
Like I said though, I believe it requires 14 teams to vote through any changes. Are the likes of Brighton going to vote a load of their money away? And to effectively relegate themselves away from the big gate and big TV money games? Why would they do that?
 
Pope John XXIII said:
Like I said though, I believe it requires 14 teams to vote through any changes. Are the likes of Brighton going to vote a load of their money away? And to effectively relegate themselves away from the big gate and big TV money games? Why would they do that?
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Are you assuming there will still be a large difference between what PL1 and PL2 clubs will earn in TV money?

I think that gap would narrow considerably; the PL already finance around a third of the teams in the Championship with parachute payments and if the TV packages are arranged creatively, package PL1 and PL2 games together for instance, there is no reason why the likes of SKY and BT will not pay a bit more.

If that gap can be narrowed it will provide all the motivation for most Clubs to buy in.

There are a group of teams in the PL, which total around 12 Clubs, who know they are realistic relegation candidates each season; Brighton are one of them.

Its all well and good for those sides to look down on the bottom three and think "fuck you, I'm alright Jack", but deep down they know their turn is just around the corner.

A softer landing in a PL2 would be much more preferable than to do what Sunderland did.
 
mao tse tung said:
Are you assuming there will still be a large difference between what PL1 and PL2 clubs will earn in TV money?

I think that gap would narrow considerably; the PL already finance around a third of the teams in the Championship with parachute payments and if the TV packages are arranged creatively, package PL1 and PL2 games together for instance, there is no reason why the likes of SKY and BT will not pay a bit more.

If that gap can be narrowed it will provide all the motivation for most Clubs to buy in.

There are a group of teams in the PL, which total around 12 Clubs, who know they are realistic relegation candidates each season; Brighton are one of them.

Its all well and good for those sides to look down on the bottom three and think "fuck you, I'm alright Jack", but deep down they know their turn is just around the corner.

A softer landing in a PL2 would be much more preferable than to do what Sunderland did.
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No, I am saying that the existing £5bn TV deal split between 32-34 sides will be a lot less attractive to the PL clubs than continuing to split it between 20.

You probably know this already but this link is very good on how much clubs get.

https://talksport.com/football/3763...ned-tv-and-their-final-position-180518283150/

They all get about £90m+ as a basic guarenteed income from TV deals, per season. They all get that, with prize money, additional televised games over 10 and then European money differentiating the teams.

If you add another dozen teams they are all going to get less, not more. Sure, the next TV deal might be worth more money as a result of having more teams they can televise.

But it won't be so valuable that all those teams continue to get a guarenteed £90m a year. The teams joining would be less valuable; you can see the value Sky puts on them from the TV deal they strike with the FL.

So I can't see any way in which a PL2 will do anything other than decrease the amount of money available to all the teams. And they won't vote for that.

With PL1 reduced to 16 teams to allow a PL2, teams like West Ham, Brighton, Bournemouth all know that they are likely to spend a lot of their time playing in the new lower league rather than the higher one; relegation will presumably be from 14th down. Why would they vote for that?

We are talking about a choice between a soft landing if they are relegated, but relegation becomes much more likely, or a hard landing but it's less likely to ever happen.

I suspect the businessmen- especially the foreign ones where owning a PL club is more a lifestyle and presentation thing akin to owning a Yacht- would probably pick the short term option 2
 
Pope John XXIII said:
No, I am saying that the existing £5bn TV deal split between 32-34 sides will be a lot less attractive to the PL clubs than continuing to split it between 20.

You probably know this already but this link is very good on how much clubs get.

https://talksport.com/football/3763...ned-tv-and-their-final-position-180518283150/

They all get about £90m+ as a basic guarenteed income from TV deals, per season. They all get that, with prize money, additional televised games over 10 and then European money differentiating the teams.

If you add another dozen teams they are all going to get less, not more. Sure, the next TV deal might be worth more money as a result of having more teams they can televise.

But it won't be so valuable that all those teams continue to get a guarenteed £90m a year. The teams joining would be less valuable; you can see the value Sky puts on them from the TV deal they strike with the FL.

So I can't see any way in which a PL2 will do anything other than decrease the amount of money available to all the teams. And they won't vote for that.

With PL1 reduced to 16 teams to allow a PL2, teams like West Ham, Brighton, Bournemouth all know that they are likely to spend a lot of their time playing in the new lower league rather than the higher one; relegation will presumably be from 14th down. Why would they vote for that?

We are talking about a choice between a soft landing if they are relegated, but relegation becomes much more likely, or a hard landing but it's less likely to ever happen.

I suspect the businessmen- especially the foreign ones where owning a PL club is more a lifestyle and presentation thing akin to owning a Yacht- would probably pick the short term option 2
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Yes, on current figures, it would be a hard sell for the likes of Brighton to take a drop in income, but that is on the assumption that everything remains as it is; I just cannot see that happening and the chaos that is heading down the track will give the big clubs the perfect smokescreen to stick the knife in.

The gap between what the top PL Clubs earn and what Barcelona and Real Madrid earn is growing; last season Barcelona cleared 1.1bn Euro (£960m) - Manchester United came closest with earnings of £730m; Manchester City and Liverpool cleared just over 500m; that is a huge gap.

The main difference between what happens in La Liga and the PL is that the top Clubs arrange their own TV deals; that does not account for all of the difference but it makes a very big contribution.

The very top PL Clubs cannot and will not allow that the continue.

If they attempt to get a resolution through the PL which gives the top Clubs more TV revenue, it would not get past first base.

A reduced League season gives the top Clubs many options for generating additional revenue - high paying friendlies and an extended CL - but as you state, it would be a hard sell for the other PL Clubs.

That leaves the nuclear option; threatening to leave for a European League.

The Italian sides are already pushing for this option; if the English Clubs show any enthusiasm the prospect will become more realistic.

I do not think this would be what the top Clubs really want, but it would be very useful as far as leverage goes.

What would the PL be worth in TV terms if the top Clubs left?

Not very much.

The economic reality of the situation would kick in for Clubs like Brighton; they might be earning 90m now but faced with the option of earning 60/70m or 30m what do you vote for?

Its purely hypothesis at the moment, but I think we will be witnessing greed like we have never seen before.
 
Have to say this is actually quite an interesting and diverting debate.

I generally lean towards mao's theory of PL fooking everyone over. The one thing that might be being overlooked is that there is still, however tenuous, a link between all the leagues. That ability to be able to go from div 2 make weights to euro champions is part of the magic and dna of football. Break that link and i think you risk breaking football.

The powers that be have a classic dilemma on their hands and it will be interesting to see how they handle it. They are not constrained in the same way as say govt or other businesses so have the opportunity to show why football is great or that football as we know it has expired.
 
mao tse tung said:
Yes, on current figures, it would be a hard sell for the likes of Brighton to take a drop in income, but that is on the assumption that everything remains as it is; I just cannot see that happening and the chaos that is heading down the track will give the big clubs the perfect smokescreen to stick the knife in.

The gap between what the top PL Clubs earn and what Barcelona and Real Madrid earn is growing; last season Barcelona cleared 1.1bn Euro (£960m) - Manchester United came closest with earnings of £730m; Manchester City and Liverpool cleared just over 500m; that is a huge gap.

The main difference between what happens in La Liga and the PL is that the top Clubs arrange their own TV deals; that does not account for all of the difference but it makes a very big contribution.

The very top PL Clubs cannot and will not allow that the continue.

If they attempt to get a resolution through the PL which gives the top Clubs more TV revenue, it would not get past first base.

A reduced League season gives the top Clubs many options for generating additional revenue - high paying friendlies and an extended CL - but as you state, it would be a hard sell for the other PL Clubs.

That leaves the nuclear option; threatening to leave for a European League.

The Italian sides are already pushing for this option; if the English Clubs show any enthusiasm the prospect will become more realistic.

I do not think this would be what the top Clubs really want, but it would be very useful as far as leverage goes.

What would the PL be worth in TV terms if the top Clubs left?

Not very much.

The economic reality of the situation would kick in for Clubs like Brighton; they might be earning 90m now but faced with the option of earning 60/70m or 30m what do you vote for?

Its purely hypothesis at the moment, but I think we will be witnessing greed like we have never seen before.
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Er United make far more in TV revenue than Barcelona lol

As always it's commercial revenue that is increasing the focus for big clubs (and why this crisis might be good for United as they're the only English club to really drive this).
 
Behind closed doors means UEFA will relax the domestic blackout of Saturday games played between 2.45-5.15.

Whether ifollow, or any home-brewed streaming platform, could support the traffic is another question. Maybe the remaining games this season will be a beta for 2020-2021.

AFAIA, season ticket holders should receive a free pass for any game left to play.

So, there will be revenue.
 
BlackGold said:
Behind closed doors means UEFA will relax the domestic blackout of Saturday games played between 2.45-5.15.

Whether ifollow, or any home-brewed streaming platform, could support the traffic is another question. Maybe the remaining games this season will be a beta for 2020-2021.

AFAIA, season ticket holders should receive a free pass for any game left to play.

So, there will be revenue.
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Bandwidth is interesting, so will be the schedule, they're talking about 3-4 games a week per club.
 
Not just the clubs that are driven by money and particularly commercial revenue.

UEFA are desperate to finish the Champions and Europa League, officially for the ‘integrity’ of the competition but in reality they stand to lose hundreds of millions if they don’t complete them.
 
Has anyone seen the proposal for a regionalised championship next year?

Apparently in the Sun on Sunday.

Each FL division would have a north and south with each team playing only 22 games. Presumably only top club goes up. Idea is to cut the season down and reduce traveling.

Clubs aren't keen
 
Pope John XXIII said:
Has anyone seen the proposal for a regionalised championship next year?

Apparently in the Sun on Sunday.

Each FL division would have a north and south with each team playing only 22 games. Presumably only top club goes up. Idea is to cut the season down and reduce traveling.

Clubs aren't keen
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it’s an absolute shit idea to be honest. It would completely take away from what it’s all about for me and would it really make much difference financially?
 
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