#COVID19 | Page 881 | Vital Football

#COVID19

Strett said:
This is where ITTO's argument when charging the government with too late and too long, falls down; we'd be in eternal cycle if it wasn't for the vaccine, as, even though the CMO and CMI were saying that herd immunity is the goal, it can only be achieved with natural immunity along with vaccination immunity.
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Not really. Will is broadly right the vaccine development was not affected by lockdown and you are broadly right that without a vaccine there would be endless cycles.

What you are perhaps forgetting is that we lost 125000 and counting with lockdowns. Would clearly have been much worse if we had done nothing.
 
Strett said:
No, for the modellers they are just numbers; pulled out their arses.
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If you're going to make accusations like that you'd better be able to back it up.
Precisely which parameters of the model were incorrect, and which parameters would you have used instead.
 
Calvin Plummer said:
I've posted about the economic damage for a long time, as usual the poor and young will be disproportionately disadvantaged. It's probable that deaths due to economic damage will surpass that of the actual pandemic.

Part why I've been so frustrated that we haven't locked down quickly and hard which would have allowed us to leave far more quickly and minimise the economic fallout.
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This is exactly the point. Bojo's inability to attend meetings and take things seriously meant we wasted months. The damage by this incompetent twat is felt both in the numbers of dead AND those financially struggling. It is a balance to some extent but one the tories kept getting wrong.
 
i am a tree said:
If you're going to make accusations like that you'd better be able to back it up.
Precisely which parameters of the model were incorrect, and which parameters would you have used instead.
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Lets take the biggest puller of rectal models, the eminent Neil (I'll sneak out to shag my mistress, while the country is under curfew) Ferguson. Which he defended as an "error of judgement"

He was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die. There were fewer than 200 deaths.

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.

Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus.
 
Strett said:
Be honest. You've just pulled that out of your arse.
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No part a, and of course part b. But if we had of:

A) been prepared for a pandemic as we were advised to be.

B) taken it seriously and put in measures far earlier

C) not ignored the Kent variant for months and instead made idiotic promises about Christmas.

Then it is clear deaths and disruption would be significantly reduced.

Tell me if this government had ignored advice about a terrorist attack and over 120k had died would you still be justifying this shite?
 
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