Spursex
Alert Team
But of course, you weren't lying - you did what you think was the best you could do, under whatever circumstances fate had handed you..
Covid, Phase II. Commonsense is the order of the day.
- Thread starter Spursex
- Start date
But of course, you weren't lying - you did what you think was the best you could do, under whatever circumstances fate had handed you..
SheringhamNo10
Vital Squad Member
Yes and No.
No country can say they have done all they could, apart from New Zealand and maybe Australia.
Having said that, I think it was very difficult at the beginning of this pandemic for governments in general. Trying to balance to risk of covid v the economy was always going to be impossible.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it goes without saying that every government would have acted differently had they known in February/March what they know today.
I moved back to Ireland 4 years ago from the Uk, where I lived for the past 30 odd years.
We are currently debating the same, did the government do enough, why didn’t we follow a zero covid strategy?
The government will argue that its impossible with a border to N Ireland which is a valid point. My own view is that both the Uk and Ireland should adopt a zero covid strategy now together, a two island approach to eliminating covid on both islands by restricting entry and operating green zones as those zones become covid free. It’s the only way for it to be effective. Some will say the horse has already bolted and this is true but on the other hand we must protect against variants that potentially reduce the effectiveness of current vaccines.
An agreement between the Uk and Ireland is dreamland however on a political level. Brexit, the EU, the current row over the AZ vaccine.
Politics and common sense rarely go hand in hand.
I do have some sympathy for decision makers in regard to covid though as I honestly feel they are dammed if they do and dammed if they don’t.
Nick Real Deal
Vital Football Legend
I understand hindsight blah, blah. Boris is not bringing the hindsight factor in though. He is saying he believes the govt and scientists did everything they could to prevent 100,000 plus people dying. He is standing by it.
He could be inferring that his hands were tied at certain stages when decisions were made.
Early on Boris even visited hospitals with no mask and was shaking covid patients hands on camera. That is a serious underestimation of the disease and sending totally the wrong message. There are many more examples of the govt failing to respond in the right way or soon enough.
This is what I base my point on....for Boris to say the govt did all they could is either misinformed, stupid, deluded or a lie. Boris is very intelligent so for me it only leaves the second two accusations.
It certainly is not accurate.
I could list the poor decisions or wrong decisions myself, a professional would have a field day.
He could be inferring that his hands were tied at certain stages when decisions were made.
Early on Boris even visited hospitals with no mask and was shaking covid patients hands on camera. That is a serious underestimation of the disease and sending totally the wrong message. There are many more examples of the govt failing to respond in the right way or soon enough.
This is what I base my point on....for Boris to say the govt did all they could is either misinformed, stupid, deluded or a lie. Boris is very intelligent so for me it only leaves the second two accusations.
It certainly is not accurate.
I could list the poor decisions or wrong decisions myself, a professional would have a field day.
Greavswasthegreatest
Vital Football Legend
If you contractual agree to Best Endeavours the customer can expect you to do absolutely anything they think is needed to be done to sort fix or achieve their issue/desire....dangerous territory imo and experience. There is no get out clause.
Spursex
Alert Team
I don't know why you're struggling with this; none of what you point to is a falsehood, it isn't a lie - what it can be is being misled, underinformed, not having enough info to hand or too strong an adherence to the scientific advice - it can even be making decisions too late, that and NOT wearing masks (here you go again) is not a lie - NO mask was the scientific advice, which this and every government in the world was following, until it didn't..
Which it did back in June (NOT before!!!!!!)
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/who-updates-guidance-on-masks-heres-what-to-know-now
- So, as you can see from above there is not, there never was and never will be a bizarre conspiracy in respect of masks!!!
Boris's premise is simple, based on the prevailing advice i.e. who's advice won out from SAGE and the four sub-committees, they followed that advice (You really should read the minutes to be fully informed).
Look you've already got the Mask issue completely and utterly wrong, I get why, things get fuzzy, dates get hazy, advice has changed so many times half of us don't know our arse from our elbow during the early stages of this - hence why I started this thread.
We had some vehemently arguing that they had quasi-science from a small group nowhereland hospital that disputed all the known findings to date, that had off-the-shelf cures that even an American President was trumping (excuse the pun) - so like it or not with this backdrop, all we can do is calmly and rationally examines the decisions that were made and when they made them and what evidence was there to support them, even when subsequently proved to be wrong.
That's a lifetime away from deliberately lying or deliberately misleading.
When we finally (as we must) get in control of this thing, the investigations will and the recriminations can begin in earnest, until then calling one man out of the hundreds of the great and the good who are/where part of these decisions a liar is simply wrong.
But if that and believing in conspiracies gets you through to the other side, that's up to you. We all want someone to blame for this. Good luck!
Spursex
Alert Team
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55825480
Well worth reading the rest of the article and watching all the video's to understand what makes deniers tick...
Can't we just round them all up and stick them all on the IOW? Oh hold on a minute...
Debunking the Covid deniers who enter hospitals
By Christopher Giles
BBC Reality Check
Published
18 hours ago
image captionThe video shot inside the hospital shows a patient in a bed and several medical staff attending to him
A man making false and misleading statements about Covid-19 tried to remove a sick coronavirus patient from East Surrey Hospital, and is wanted by police.
The man filmed himself arguing with doctors in the ward, demanding to be allowed to take the patient home. Doctors at the hospital are seen in the video warning against such an action - stating that the patient would die if he left their care.
It follows a trend of people filming supposedly "empty hospitals" and then posting them online and encouraging others to do the same, spread on social media platforms.
In a statement, Michael Wilson, chief executive of Surrey and Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust, said: "Any suggestion that Covid-19 doesn't exist or isn't serious is not only extremely disrespectful to the NHS staff caring for patients affected by the virus, but it also puts the lives of others at risk."
The video has been shared thousands of times on social media. The man behind the camera makes a number of discredited claims - albeit ones that are very popular in Covid-19 conspiracy communities online.
What's wrong with his statements?
Well worth reading the rest of the article and watching all the video's to understand what makes deniers tick...
Can't we just round them all up and stick them all on the IOW? Oh hold on a minute...
Debunking the Covid deniers who enter hospitals
By Christopher Giles
BBC Reality Check
Published
18 hours ago
image captionThe video shot inside the hospital shows a patient in a bed and several medical staff attending to him
A man making false and misleading statements about Covid-19 tried to remove a sick coronavirus patient from East Surrey Hospital, and is wanted by police.
The man filmed himself arguing with doctors in the ward, demanding to be allowed to take the patient home. Doctors at the hospital are seen in the video warning against such an action - stating that the patient would die if he left their care.
It follows a trend of people filming supposedly "empty hospitals" and then posting them online and encouraging others to do the same, spread on social media platforms.
In a statement, Michael Wilson, chief executive of Surrey and Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust, said: "Any suggestion that Covid-19 doesn't exist or isn't serious is not only extremely disrespectful to the NHS staff caring for patients affected by the virus, but it also puts the lives of others at risk."
The video has been shared thousands of times on social media. The man behind the camera makes a number of discredited claims - albeit ones that are very popular in Covid-19 conspiracy communities online.
What's wrong with his statements?
Greavswasthegreatest
Vital Football Legend
Holocaust Denial ....Covid Denial what is wrong with our societies?
Spursex
Alert Team
Fcuk knows Greavsie, I despair, I really do.
When did we ever breed such utterly stupid people - maybe parents' warnings about watching too much tele (substitute internet) really did have a point?
Spursex
Alert Team
Covid vaccine ‘can’t fail’ to slow spread of virus, says Jonathan Van-Tam
Tom Whipple, Science Editor
Thursday January 28 2021, 9.00am, The Times
Health
Science
A member of the Royal Navy prepares an injection at a coronavirus vaccination facility at Bath racecourse. The UK has so far vaccinated about 10 per cent of the population, the highest rate in Europe
BEN BIRCHALL/PA
There is no doubt that vaccines will reduce coronavirus transmission, according to England’s deputy chief medical officer.
Jonathan Van-Tam said the vaccines “couldn’t fail” to slow the spread of infections, as well as preventing disease — and that studies were under way to assess their effects.
Previously Professor Van-Tam had said that people should not assume that they could not spread the virus just because they had been vaccinated.
The vaccines do not stop all infection, and it is possible that some who are vaccinated might be asymptomatic and unaware that they are infectious.
However, at the Downing Street press conference he and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, said it was inconceivable that they would not have clear effects on the ability of people to spread the virus, and hence on the national R number.
“As scientists we believe on first principles that vaccines with the very high level of effectiveness that we are seeing from the clinical trials really couldn’t fail to have some effect on transmission,” Professor Van-Tam said, adding that it was a question of “to what extent” rather than whether they would.
The findings of studies investigating this will be key in deciding how the country is able to open up. Effective blocking of transmission will enable us to reach herd immunity far more effectively. It will also mean that it is worthwhile vaccinating groups not at risk of illness, in order to stop them becoming part of chains of transmission.
“When we have clarity on the extent, that will then open up a whole range of further questions about the future deployment of vaccines . . . about how vaccines might play a role in keeping transmission low in the UK,” he said.
Sir Patrick said: “You don’t have vaccines to this degree of efficacy without there being some effect but we can’t put a number on it at the moment. I think it is really important that as these are rolled out across the world, we monitor and understand — Israel has started doing that and they are beginning to get some data out. They have said they won’t have any firm data for a few weeks yet and we’re going to be in the same position. But these are important questions because . . . it will also determine to what extent these vaccines can be used across the wider society to reduce transmission overall.”
Eleanor Riley, from the University of Edinburgh, said that a small amount of transmission in vaccinated people was not necessarily a bad thing. “In two or three years time, we will actually be quite glad that there’s a little bit of virus being spread around by people who are vaccinated,” she said. Those small amounts of virus, spreading through those who have enough defences to no longer get sick, become in effect an immunological top-up. “We may get to the point where there’s just enough virus circulating that immunity is naturally boosted, without the need for vaccines.”
The development comes as a new study from Imperial College London has revealed that the number of people infected with coroanvirus has hit its highest level recorded in England since May. The study, which looked at more than 167,000 volunteers tested in England between January 6 and 22, showed that infections had flattened but remained at the highest level recorded by the researchers.
The findings suggest that the national prevalence of the virus was 1.57 per cent, or 157 per 10,000 people. Regional prevalence was highest in London, at 2.83 per cent; in the South West it was 0.87 per cent.
Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at Imperial, said: “The number of people infected with the virus is at the highest level that we’ve recorded since we began testing last May. We’re not seeing the sharp drop in infections that happened under the first lockdown and if infections aren’t brought down significantly hospitals won’t be able to cope with the number of people that need critical care.
“I think the suggestion now that there is a decline happening, particularly in some regions, may reflect now that the restrictions through lockdown are beginning to have some effect on the prevalence.”
Tom Whipple, Science Editor
Thursday January 28 2021, 9.00am, The Times
Health
Science
A member of the Royal Navy prepares an injection at a coronavirus vaccination facility at Bath racecourse. The UK has so far vaccinated about 10 per cent of the population, the highest rate in Europe
BEN BIRCHALL/PA
There is no doubt that vaccines will reduce coronavirus transmission, according to England’s deputy chief medical officer.
Jonathan Van-Tam said the vaccines “couldn’t fail” to slow the spread of infections, as well as preventing disease — and that studies were under way to assess their effects.
Previously Professor Van-Tam had said that people should not assume that they could not spread the virus just because they had been vaccinated.
The vaccines do not stop all infection, and it is possible that some who are vaccinated might be asymptomatic and unaware that they are infectious.
However, at the Downing Street press conference he and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, said it was inconceivable that they would not have clear effects on the ability of people to spread the virus, and hence on the national R number.
“As scientists we believe on first principles that vaccines with the very high level of effectiveness that we are seeing from the clinical trials really couldn’t fail to have some effect on transmission,” Professor Van-Tam said, adding that it was a question of “to what extent” rather than whether they would.
The findings of studies investigating this will be key in deciding how the country is able to open up. Effective blocking of transmission will enable us to reach herd immunity far more effectively. It will also mean that it is worthwhile vaccinating groups not at risk of illness, in order to stop them becoming part of chains of transmission.
“When we have clarity on the extent, that will then open up a whole range of further questions about the future deployment of vaccines . . . about how vaccines might play a role in keeping transmission low in the UK,” he said.
Sir Patrick said: “You don’t have vaccines to this degree of efficacy without there being some effect but we can’t put a number on it at the moment. I think it is really important that as these are rolled out across the world, we monitor and understand — Israel has started doing that and they are beginning to get some data out. They have said they won’t have any firm data for a few weeks yet and we’re going to be in the same position. But these are important questions because . . . it will also determine to what extent these vaccines can be used across the wider society to reduce transmission overall.”
Eleanor Riley, from the University of Edinburgh, said that a small amount of transmission in vaccinated people was not necessarily a bad thing. “In two or three years time, we will actually be quite glad that there’s a little bit of virus being spread around by people who are vaccinated,” she said. Those small amounts of virus, spreading through those who have enough defences to no longer get sick, become in effect an immunological top-up. “We may get to the point where there’s just enough virus circulating that immunity is naturally boosted, without the need for vaccines.”
The development comes as a new study from Imperial College London has revealed that the number of people infected with coroanvirus has hit its highest level recorded in England since May. The study, which looked at more than 167,000 volunteers tested in England between January 6 and 22, showed that infections had flattened but remained at the highest level recorded by the researchers.
The findings suggest that the national prevalence of the virus was 1.57 per cent, or 157 per 10,000 people. Regional prevalence was highest in London, at 2.83 per cent; in the South West it was 0.87 per cent.
Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at Imperial, said: “The number of people infected with the virus is at the highest level that we’ve recorded since we began testing last May. We’re not seeing the sharp drop in infections that happened under the first lockdown and if infections aren’t brought down significantly hospitals won’t be able to cope with the number of people that need critical care.
“I think the suggestion now that there is a decline happening, particularly in some regions, may reflect now that the restrictions through lockdown are beginning to have some effect on the prevalence.”
Spursex
Alert Team
Completely and totally agree with this:
No jab, no job policy should be the law
The Government should move quickly to prevent a wave of court cases and grumbling from unions
The lawyers are already gearing up for a lucrative fight. The unions are planning their campaigns, and human resources departments across the country will be nervously checking their textbooks. With vaccines for Covid-19 rolling out at record speed, lots of employers are starting to insist their staff get a shot.
Charlie Mullins, the often less than lovable founder of Pimlico Plumbers, put it most pithily, insisting on a “no jab, no job” policy, and many others will soon follow his lead. The trouble is, employment lawyers are already starting to push back. From unfair dismissal, to discrimination, to potential violations of human rights laws, the courts could soon be cluttered with claims from employees who feel they have been unfairly treated.
But hold on. This is crazy. There are lots of jobs where you can’t work from home, and plenty of factories and offices that will remain closed if people don’t get vaccinated. Of course, no one should be forced to take the vaccine if they don’t want to. But they have to accept it may limit their employment options. Businesses already face plenty of uncertainty without the additional anxiety of a blizzard of legal claims.
The solution is simple. Parliament should legislate for no jab, no job this week – and that way everyone will know where they stand and can start planning for the future.
With the vaccination campaign gathering speed all the time – we are getting close to half a million shots a day and that may increase as more supply becomes available – it is not long before the working-age population starts getting offered an injection. Already, plenty of employers are starting to think about that.
Mullins has taken the lead, insisting that the guys who work for his plumbing empire have to get vaccinated. It is not hard to see his point. It is going to be difficult to visit lots of houses every day to fix leaking pipes and wonky boilers if you might catch Covid. But it is not just plumbers.
A shop or restaurant will be far easier to run if you know all the staff have been vaccinated. So will an airline, or a gym. And so, for that matter, will a care home, a dental practice, a law firm, a construction site, or just about any business that you care to think about. If a few people refuse to take a shot, then you have to maintain safety protocols and social distancing, or may have to carry on working from home long after it is really necessary.
HR consultancies are already reported to be drawing up databases of who has and hasn’t been vaccinated so they know who to hire. Here’s the problem, however. No one is really sure whether it is legal or not.
The lawyers and unions are already preparing the ground for potential complaints. It could count as unfair dismissal, for example, if the employee may potentially work anyway. Or it could be classed as discrimination, especially if staff argue they have ethical or religious objections to getting an injection.
There may well be claims under human rights legislation as well, if staff can claim their rights have been violated. That could all turn out to be very expensive. In reality, we may find in just a few weeks’ time that workplaces which could start opening up again remain closed because lawyers, insurers and HR experts warn the legal risks are too high.
Of course, no one should be forced to take the shot if they don’t want to. There is an argument for mandatory vaccination, but it is a huge infringement of civil liberties, and we have probably seen enough of those in the past year to last a lifetime. People should be free to choose. But that doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be any consequences of their decision.
There are plenty of countries where you are only allowed in with a vaccination certificate, and it is up to you whether you want to travel there or not. In the same way, anyone who prefers not to be vaccinated may have to accept it limits their employment opportunities. If they don’t like that, tough.
Of course, a no jab, no job policy may be legal already. We don’t really know, and there will be plenty of employers who will argue it is perfectly OK. And yet, over the years, companies have learned through bitter experience to live in fear of the employment tribunals and the courts.
Legislation has a way of being twisted in the interests of the employees rather than the employer, and the record so far shows the UK’s Supreme Court will usually take the side of the workers over their bosses. It might be a year or two before a test case makes its way through the system – after all these things are never quick – and until the judges have made a decision no one knows where they are.
There is enough uncertainty around for businesses already. They don’t know when they can reopen. They don’t know when offices will be functioning again. They don’t even know if their customers will remember who they are once everything gets back to normal. The last thing anyone needs is a year of uncertainty over whether it is legal to insist on a jab or not. There is a simple solution to that.
Parliament should pass a one-line bill this week making it clear that it is legal to discriminate on the grounds of whether a person has been vaccinated against Covid-19, and that no claims on the grounds of unfair dismissal will be accepted.
That will settle the matter once and for all, and stop the employment lawyers and unions in their tracks. And employers can start thinking about reopening factories, shops and restaurants for the spring and summer once everyone who wants to be has been vaccinated – without worrying about the legal consequences.
No jab, no job policy should be the law
The Government should move quickly to prevent a wave of court cases and grumbling from unions
The lawyers are already gearing up for a lucrative fight. The unions are planning their campaigns, and human resources departments across the country will be nervously checking their textbooks. With vaccines for Covid-19 rolling out at record speed, lots of employers are starting to insist their staff get a shot.
Charlie Mullins, the often less than lovable founder of Pimlico Plumbers, put it most pithily, insisting on a “no jab, no job” policy, and many others will soon follow his lead. The trouble is, employment lawyers are already starting to push back. From unfair dismissal, to discrimination, to potential violations of human rights laws, the courts could soon be cluttered with claims from employees who feel they have been unfairly treated.
But hold on. This is crazy. There are lots of jobs where you can’t work from home, and plenty of factories and offices that will remain closed if people don’t get vaccinated. Of course, no one should be forced to take the vaccine if they don’t want to. But they have to accept it may limit their employment options. Businesses already face plenty of uncertainty without the additional anxiety of a blizzard of legal claims.
The solution is simple. Parliament should legislate for no jab, no job this week – and that way everyone will know where they stand and can start planning for the future.
With the vaccination campaign gathering speed all the time – we are getting close to half a million shots a day and that may increase as more supply becomes available – it is not long before the working-age population starts getting offered an injection. Already, plenty of employers are starting to think about that.
Mullins has taken the lead, insisting that the guys who work for his plumbing empire have to get vaccinated. It is not hard to see his point. It is going to be difficult to visit lots of houses every day to fix leaking pipes and wonky boilers if you might catch Covid. But it is not just plumbers.
A shop or restaurant will be far easier to run if you know all the staff have been vaccinated. So will an airline, or a gym. And so, for that matter, will a care home, a dental practice, a law firm, a construction site, or just about any business that you care to think about. If a few people refuse to take a shot, then you have to maintain safety protocols and social distancing, or may have to carry on working from home long after it is really necessary.
HR consultancies are already reported to be drawing up databases of who has and hasn’t been vaccinated so they know who to hire. Here’s the problem, however. No one is really sure whether it is legal or not.
The lawyers and unions are already preparing the ground for potential complaints. It could count as unfair dismissal, for example, if the employee may potentially work anyway. Or it could be classed as discrimination, especially if staff argue they have ethical or religious objections to getting an injection.
There may well be claims under human rights legislation as well, if staff can claim their rights have been violated. That could all turn out to be very expensive. In reality, we may find in just a few weeks’ time that workplaces which could start opening up again remain closed because lawyers, insurers and HR experts warn the legal risks are too high.
Of course, no one should be forced to take the shot if they don’t want to. There is an argument for mandatory vaccination, but it is a huge infringement of civil liberties, and we have probably seen enough of those in the past year to last a lifetime. People should be free to choose. But that doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be any consequences of their decision.
There are plenty of countries where you are only allowed in with a vaccination certificate, and it is up to you whether you want to travel there or not. In the same way, anyone who prefers not to be vaccinated may have to accept it limits their employment opportunities. If they don’t like that, tough.
Of course, a no jab, no job policy may be legal already. We don’t really know, and there will be plenty of employers who will argue it is perfectly OK. And yet, over the years, companies have learned through bitter experience to live in fear of the employment tribunals and the courts.
Legislation has a way of being twisted in the interests of the employees rather than the employer, and the record so far shows the UK’s Supreme Court will usually take the side of the workers over their bosses. It might be a year or two before a test case makes its way through the system – after all these things are never quick – and until the judges have made a decision no one knows where they are.
There is enough uncertainty around for businesses already. They don’t know when they can reopen. They don’t know when offices will be functioning again. They don’t even know if their customers will remember who they are once everything gets back to normal. The last thing anyone needs is a year of uncertainty over whether it is legal to insist on a jab or not. There is a simple solution to that.
Parliament should pass a one-line bill this week making it clear that it is legal to discriminate on the grounds of whether a person has been vaccinated against Covid-19, and that no claims on the grounds of unfair dismissal will be accepted.
That will settle the matter once and for all, and stop the employment lawyers and unions in their tracks. And employers can start thinking about reopening factories, shops and restaurants for the spring and summer once everyone who wants to be has been vaccinated – without worrying about the legal consequences.
Nick Real Deal
Vital Football Legend
Washington Post on Boris stating we did everything we could.
" a broad swath of scientists, public health experts and citizens heaped scorn on the prideful assertion "
Wales Online
Sickened NHS Doctor scolds Boris after we did everything we could comment.
The Mirror
Chris Whitty admitted the govt acted too slowly on policies such as face mask rules.
Ace London Economic
" few could argue the govt did everything it could "
I News
Lists a number of missed opportunities and ignored SAGE advice.
Piers Morgan branded the statement a LIE.
Alistair Campbell similar to above.
That is a cross section of scientists, doctors media and politicians who did not accept Boris's specific words were true when he said we did everything we could.
" a broad swath of scientists, public health experts and citizens heaped scorn on the prideful assertion "
Wales Online
Sickened NHS Doctor scolds Boris after we did everything we could comment.
The Mirror
Chris Whitty admitted the govt acted too slowly on policies such as face mask rules.
Ace London Economic
" few could argue the govt did everything it could "
I News
Lists a number of missed opportunities and ignored SAGE advice.
Piers Morgan branded the statement a LIE.
Alistair Campbell similar to above.
That is a cross section of scientists, doctors media and politicians who did not accept Boris's specific words were true when he said we did everything we could.
Spursex
Alert Team
It's name-calling, but they cannot point to a lie, it's been offensive, because as i said, he/his government and the experts they listened to got it wrong, as well sometimes getting it right.
As I've already showed the 'mask' one is an utterly ridiculous nonsense - once of course you understand that we were in lockstep with the WHO - the worlds supposedly supreme authority on these matters - and that includes any nonsense about t being a big conspiracy.
Nick Real Deal
Vital Football Legend
It doesn't matter who was at fault. I'm not blaming anyone.
Scorn, sickened, admission ( by Whitty ), few could argue, ignored Sage advice, LIE ( Piers Morgan )
These are damning opinions on the statement by Boris.
Despite WHO advice on masks it doesn't mean you cant exceed that advice by being extra precautionary. Or exceed advice on lockdowns, travel etc. If you do the least it means you could have done more. Ok, you damage the economy slightly sooner than it would have been.
We have our own expert scientists to test face mask protection levels , we dont need the WHO. Straight away the alarm bells should have been ringing....let's do the testing ourselves to see if masks offer any protection.
Spursex
Alert Team
Of course, it doesn't mean you can't exceed the SOP, that's the epitome of leadership and decision making, just as it is when you don't.
As I said, yor hindsight is wonderful, but we are a member and adhere to their principles - which is why we have been for many decades. That doesn't make you a liar or inadequate, but it might mean your own scientists and experts aren't up to the job or refusing to give opinions unless they have a scientific basis for doing so (read the minutes!) whereas you and I, can, of course, go with gut instinct as we only have to answer to ourselves.
It's easy then, isn't it?
Last edited:
Spursex
Alert Team
More good news..albeit, a little way off..
https://www.theguardian.com/society...e-shown-to-be-nearly-90-effective-in-uk-trial
Novavax Covid vaccine shown to be nearly 90% effective in UK trial
Government has ordered 60m doses of jab, which appears to work well against Kent variant
Sarah Boseley, Nicola Davis and Archie Bland
Fri 29 Jan 2021 08.39 GMT First published on Thu 28 Jan 2021 23.56 GM
Novavax trial at the Royal Free Hospital, north London. The Novavax vaccine will be manufactured for the UK on Teesside. Photograph: Kirsty O’Connor/PA
Another vaccine against Covid, trialled in the UK , has been shown to be nearly 90% effective and to work against the UK and South African variants of the virus.
The UK vaccines taskforce has bought 60m doses of the Novavax vaccine, one of seven in its portfolio, and it will be manufactured on Teesside in the UK. If it is given emergency authorisation by the UK regulator, it could boost the country’s immunisation programme and solve the potential problems over the supply of the other two vaccines in use.
Results show that the Novavax vaccine, which has been going through late-stage trials in the last few months, is highly protective against variant of coronavirus that emerged in Kent. It also gives some protection – though less – against the variant causing even more concern in South Africa, which scientists think may be capable of evading the vaccines currently in use.
Prof Paul Heath, the chief investigator of the UK Novavax trial, said he was delighted by the news and hailed it as a “great step forward”. He said the results indicated it would be possible to “keep up and in fact get ahead of” additional new strains of the virus in future.
“The technology … is such that they can adapt quickly,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Friday. “We can expect to see if required new vaccines, or bivalent vaccines where two different strains are joined together in one vaccine, and that now can be done at pace so that we can keep up with these variants should they prove to be difficult to prevent with the vaccine that we have at the moment.”
The US -based Novavax said the results of its phase 3 final trials in the UK, involving 15,000 people, showed 89.3% efficacy. Almost 4,000 people in the study (27%) were in the over-65 age group, who are most at risk from the virus. Half the cases of Covid in the trial were identified as caused by the variant that emerged in Kent, known as B117.
1:00
Novavax Covid vaccine nearly 90% effective in UK trial – video
Half of those involved were given a placebo. Among the participants, there were six cases of symptomatic Covid in those given the vaccine and 56 in those who were not.
The vaccine had higher efficacy against the original coronavirus, 95.6%, and 85.6% against the UK variant – so 89.3% overall.
Clive Dix, the chair of the UK vaccines taskforce, said: “These are spectacular results, and we are very pleased to have helped Novavax with the development of this vaccine. The efficacy shown against the emerging variants is also extremely encouraging. This is an incredible achievement that will ensure we can protect individuals in the UK and the rest of the world from this virus.”
The health secretary, Matt Hancock, said the vaccine was potentially another breakthrough against the epidemic in the UK.
“This is positive news and, if approved by the medicines regulator, the Novavax vaccine will be a significant boost to our vaccination programme and another weapon in our arsenal to beat this awful virus,” he said.
“I’m proud the UK is at the forefront of another medical breakthrough and I want to thank the brilliant scientists and researchers, as well as the tens of thousands of selfless volunteers who took park in clinical trials. The NHS stands ready to roll this vaccine out as quickly as possible to those most at risk if it is authorised.”
The study in South Africa was an earlier stage 2 trial and did not show such strong results. About 90% of the cases identified among participants in the trial were caused by the variant. There were 15 cases identified among people given the vaccine and 29 in the placebo group, giving an efficacy of 60%. About a third of the participants had antibodies, believed to have been a result of previous infection by the original coronavirus, which had not protected them against the variant.
Novavax now plans to design a vaccine specifically to work against the variant in South Africa.
“The 60% reduced risk against Covid-19 illness in vaccinated individuals in South Africans underscores the value of this vaccine to prevent illness from the highly worrisome variant currently circulating in South Africa, and which is spreading globally,” said Prof Shabir Madhi of University of the Witwatersrand, principal investigator in the trial in South Africa.
The Novavax vaccine is different from the Oxford/AstraZeneca or the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines. It contains spike proteins, produced by moth cells infected with a genetically modified virus, together with a substance called an adjuvant which boosts the immune response. However, like the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab it can be stored at between 2 and 8C, meaning it requires only normal refrigeration, making it easier to deliver it to patients.
The vaccines minister, Nadhim Zahawi, was one of the volunteers in the Novavax trial. He said: “I am particularly thrilled to see such positive results. I want to thank the thousands of trial volunteers, without whom these results would not have been possible.
“It will now be for the regulator to do its crucial work in assessing the efficacy and safety of this vaccine, but if approved it will be a further boost to our vaccination programme.”
If you have been affected or have any information, we'd like to hear from you. You can get in touch by filling in the form below, anonymously if you wish or contact us via WhatsApp by clicking here or adding the contact +44(0)7867825056. Only the Guardian can see your contributions and one of our journalists may contact you to discuss further.
Novavax, like the other manufacturers, has initiated a rolling review of its data with the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Authority. The regulator has been scrutinising the data from lab work and early trials since mid-January, to speed up the approval process. Other vaccines have been approved within weeks of publication of their final results.
The supply of a third vaccine in the UK will be very welcome and may ease the row with Europe, which is demanding some of the vaccines being made in the UK by AstraZeneca after a plant in Belgium failed to produce as much as hoped. There have also been supply issues with the Pfizer jab.
https://www.theguardian.com/society...e-shown-to-be-nearly-90-effective-in-uk-trial
Novavax Covid vaccine shown to be nearly 90% effective in UK trial
Government has ordered 60m doses of jab, which appears to work well against Kent variant
Sarah Boseley, Nicola Davis and Archie Bland
Fri 29 Jan 2021 08.39 GMT First published on Thu 28 Jan 2021 23.56 GM
Novavax trial at the Royal Free Hospital, north London. The Novavax vaccine will be manufactured for the UK on Teesside. Photograph: Kirsty O’Connor/PA
Another vaccine against Covid, trialled in the UK , has been shown to be nearly 90% effective and to work against the UK and South African variants of the virus.
The UK vaccines taskforce has bought 60m doses of the Novavax vaccine, one of seven in its portfolio, and it will be manufactured on Teesside in the UK. If it is given emergency authorisation by the UK regulator, it could boost the country’s immunisation programme and solve the potential problems over the supply of the other two vaccines in use.
Results show that the Novavax vaccine, which has been going through late-stage trials in the last few months, is highly protective against variant of coronavirus that emerged in Kent. It also gives some protection – though less – against the variant causing even more concern in South Africa, which scientists think may be capable of evading the vaccines currently in use.
Prof Paul Heath, the chief investigator of the UK Novavax trial, said he was delighted by the news and hailed it as a “great step forward”. He said the results indicated it would be possible to “keep up and in fact get ahead of” additional new strains of the virus in future.
“The technology … is such that they can adapt quickly,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Friday. “We can expect to see if required new vaccines, or bivalent vaccines where two different strains are joined together in one vaccine, and that now can be done at pace so that we can keep up with these variants should they prove to be difficult to prevent with the vaccine that we have at the moment.”
The US -based Novavax said the results of its phase 3 final trials in the UK, involving 15,000 people, showed 89.3% efficacy. Almost 4,000 people in the study (27%) were in the over-65 age group, who are most at risk from the virus. Half the cases of Covid in the trial were identified as caused by the variant that emerged in Kent, known as B117.
1:00
Novavax Covid vaccine nearly 90% effective in UK trial – video
Half of those involved were given a placebo. Among the participants, there were six cases of symptomatic Covid in those given the vaccine and 56 in those who were not.
The vaccine had higher efficacy against the original coronavirus, 95.6%, and 85.6% against the UK variant – so 89.3% overall.
Clive Dix, the chair of the UK vaccines taskforce, said: “These are spectacular results, and we are very pleased to have helped Novavax with the development of this vaccine. The efficacy shown against the emerging variants is also extremely encouraging. This is an incredible achievement that will ensure we can protect individuals in the UK and the rest of the world from this virus.”
The health secretary, Matt Hancock, said the vaccine was potentially another breakthrough against the epidemic in the UK.
“This is positive news and, if approved by the medicines regulator, the Novavax vaccine will be a significant boost to our vaccination programme and another weapon in our arsenal to beat this awful virus,” he said.
“I’m proud the UK is at the forefront of another medical breakthrough and I want to thank the brilliant scientists and researchers, as well as the tens of thousands of selfless volunteers who took park in clinical trials. The NHS stands ready to roll this vaccine out as quickly as possible to those most at risk if it is authorised.”
The study in South Africa was an earlier stage 2 trial and did not show such strong results. About 90% of the cases identified among participants in the trial were caused by the variant. There were 15 cases identified among people given the vaccine and 29 in the placebo group, giving an efficacy of 60%. About a third of the participants had antibodies, believed to have been a result of previous infection by the original coronavirus, which had not protected them against the variant.
Novavax now plans to design a vaccine specifically to work against the variant in South Africa.
“The 60% reduced risk against Covid-19 illness in vaccinated individuals in South Africans underscores the value of this vaccine to prevent illness from the highly worrisome variant currently circulating in South Africa, and which is spreading globally,” said Prof Shabir Madhi of University of the Witwatersrand, principal investigator in the trial in South Africa.
The Novavax vaccine is different from the Oxford/AstraZeneca or the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines. It contains spike proteins, produced by moth cells infected with a genetically modified virus, together with a substance called an adjuvant which boosts the immune response. However, like the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab it can be stored at between 2 and 8C, meaning it requires only normal refrigeration, making it easier to deliver it to patients.
The vaccines minister, Nadhim Zahawi, was one of the volunteers in the Novavax trial. He said: “I am particularly thrilled to see such positive results. I want to thank the thousands of trial volunteers, without whom these results would not have been possible.
“It will now be for the regulator to do its crucial work in assessing the efficacy and safety of this vaccine, but if approved it will be a further boost to our vaccination programme.”
If you have been affected or have any information, we'd like to hear from you. You can get in touch by filling in the form below, anonymously if you wish or contact us via WhatsApp by clicking here or adding the contact +44(0)7867825056. Only the Guardian can see your contributions and one of our journalists may contact you to discuss further.
Novavax, like the other manufacturers, has initiated a rolling review of its data with the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Authority. The regulator has been scrutinising the data from lab work and early trials since mid-January, to speed up the approval process. Other vaccines have been approved within weeks of publication of their final results.
The supply of a third vaccine in the UK will be very welcome and may ease the row with Europe, which is demanding some of the vaccines being made in the UK by AstraZeneca after a plant in Belgium failed to produce as much as hoped. There have also been supply issues with the Pfizer jab.
SheringhamNo10
Vital Squad Member
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...uck-deal-to-guarantee-vaccine-supply-12204044
Interesting article, gives an insight into why the U.K. is leading the way on vaccines and why the EU are scrambling around like clowns.
The U.K. government has had its fair share of criticism throughout but credit where credit is due.
Interesting article, gives an insight into why the U.K. is leading the way on vaccines and why the EU are scrambling around like clowns.
The U.K. government has had its fair share of criticism throughout but credit where credit is due.
Spursex
Alert Team
We all wondered how much notice the commission would take of Ireland if there was ever a time when a trade dispute looked likely, and now we know; absolutely none what so ever. I know it was subsequently reversed but I was shocked to see them behave so arbitrarily and so it should act as a timely warning to both Dublin and London, who now should both know that they need to keep a clear open channel of communication between them and not let Brussels desire to flex their muscles ruin our common need for a good relationship, to that end I was really pleased to see that if and when (and we will eventually) have spare vaccines, Ireland will get them first.
As you say, this government got absolute pelters and criticism from all directions when it opted out of the EU common approach, but it got this 100% right. Good on them, they deserve credit for it.
Spursex
Alert Team
The fall out in Europe over the arbitrary way the Commission in Brussels behaved isn't going away, all week I've been hearing from german contacts that the press there are fuming over the fact that no one is to be held to account, and that they're actually all slapping each other's backs at how wonderful they've behaved!
So when I read this, thought it was worth sharing..
Furious Germany will not forget EU vaccine disaster when Brussels seeks more bailout money
The EU has only itself to blame for its vaccine saga, as its botched pandemic response exposes cracks in the union
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 2 February 2021 • 2:00pm
No such thing as euroscepticism exists in the Federal Republic. At least not in the way it is understood in its various forms in the UK, the Netherlands, the Nordics, Eastern Europe, France, Italy, or (spasmodically) Ireland. But the scale of this error has left its mark on the German collective mind.
Die Zeit calls this episode “the best advertisement for Brexit”. Bild Zeitung calls it “checkmate Brussels”. There is a knock-about feel to these outbursts. What ought to worry the Commission and Germany’s pro-EU elites more is a deeper critique of the EU project from very well-informed quarters.
Daniel Stelter, Germany’s corporate guru, writes in the insider publication Manager Magazin that this crisis has exposed something rotten at the core. “It is dawning on the German and European population that the political class has failed across the board in meeting the enormous economic and social challenges of the Corona crisis. It marks the accelerating decline of the EU,” he said.
He accused politicians of “trying to throw sand in our eyes” and seeking to divert blame with squalid populist gestures. “Everybody in the economic sphere now knows that whenever there is a problem at a production site in the EU, there is a risk of being hit with an export ban: vaccines today, biotech tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow what?”
“This destruction of trust in the EU as a place of business (Standort EU) is all of a piece with its tendency towards over-regulation and planned-economy control. The gap between wish and reality in the EU is greater than ever. By failing to procure vaccines, the EU has validated Brexit and given all EU citizens an objective reason for euroscepticism,” he said.
The danger for Europe lies in the intersecting effect of vaccine paralysis and an even longer economic downturn. The glacial roll-out and lack of doses may delay recovery by three months. That is an extremely expensive failure in terms of political credibility and recessionary metastasis.
“We see the EU's vaccine crisis having three successive inter-related effects: a prolonged lockdown, a longer second leg of our double-dip recession, and an anti-incumbent mood,” said Wolfgang Münchau's EuroIntelligence.
The vaccine saga exposes a great number of EU pathologies, starting with the breathtaking absence of apology. Heads would roll in a democratic state. The EU’s constitutional structure shields the executive from accountability. Ursula von der Leyen breezily insisted yesterday that the handling of vaccine procurement had been a great success.
Sandra Gallina, the EU trade negotiator elevated to director-general of health, was defiant before a committee of Euro-MPs. The EU is in the “top league” on vaccine roll-out. “I’m not jealous of what Biden is doing because in actual fact the situation here in Europe is, may I say, better,” she said. On vaccines? Really?
Officials cannot shake the habit of self-congratulation. Martin Selmayr, the Commission’s eminence grise, tweeted that the jabs were proceeding marvellously: the EU had vaulted ahead of Africa. Such is the pontine doctrine of Commission Infallibility.
The errors made in acquiring vaccines were not accidental. They were inherent in the ideology of the institution. This dysfunctional culture keeps making mistakes each time it ventures into a new terrain, and then has great trouble correcting itself. Without revisiting the maddening themes of farm and fish policy, what about the EU’s first stab at a carbon emissions trading scheme? It was a byword for market illiteracy. Nobody died. It has now been reformed. But you don’t get such a second chance in a pandemic.
In this case it was an elemental error to put trade hagglers in charge of a health emergency. Rather than spend months trying to drive down the price - when the imperative was time - the Commission should have done the opposite. Germany’s IfO Institute said it should have paid a dose premium to bring forward production since the cost of pandemic measures in lost GDP is hundreds of times greater. IfO calculates that the economic utility of each shot is €1,500.
The EU treated Big Pharma as the enemy when it should have been pulling out all the stops to help these companies. “Liability and indemnification, these were really important for us,” said Ms Gallina yesterday. Well quite. That was the problem.
One can sympathise with the desire to hold the 27 states together, which necessarily slows everything down and leads to the lowest common denominator. “Just imagine what might have happened if some richer or luckier member countries such as Germany, the home of BioNTech, had used their clout and deep pockets to secure a disproportionate share of vaccines for themselves,” said Holger Schmieding from Berenberg Bank.
But even here, the Commission’s motive was in part to take Big Pharma down a few notches by acting as a unified bloc and showing who was boss. It was about power. Just as the Brexit negotiations were about power, not trade, and certainly not about peace in Northern Ireland.
However you distribute the blame, the fact remains that the Commission seized on the pandemic to increase its powers and then botched the operation horribly. So what will this mean for confidence in its management of the €750bn Recovery Fund, the other great power-grab by Brussels since Ursula von der Leyen took the helm?
The German, Dutch, Austria, and Nordic parliaments are already suspicious over the use of this slush fund. Allegations that Italian premier Giuseppe Conte was conspiring to siphon off money for political patronage triggered last week’s collapse of his government. The Bundestag’s Grand Inquisitor, Wolfgang Schauble, is already growling.
It is going to be much harder to rustle up another fiscal stimulus, a Recovery Fund Mark II. One awaits the icy response when Northern taxpayers are asked to cough up hundreds of billions more. Germany agreed to fund big transfers after the first wave of Covid because Italy and Spain had been devastated, while the North had been largely spared. Nobody has been spared this time.
But if there is no mega-stimulus, Club Med will be left languishing in structural depression, notwithstanding an initial dead cat bounce from reopening. One thing everybody agrees on is that monetary union cannot survive another protracted slump in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. The debt ratios will spiral higher. Polities will react.
So when I read this, thought it was worth sharing..
Furious Germany will not forget EU vaccine disaster when Brussels seeks more bailout money
The EU has only itself to blame for its vaccine saga, as its botched pandemic response exposes cracks in the union
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 2 February 2021 • 2:00pm
This article is an extract from The Telegraph’s Economic Intelligence newsletter. Sign up here to get exclusive insight from two of the UK’s leading economic commentators – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and Jeremy Warner – delivered direct to your inbox every Tuesday.
The EU’s vaccine disaster is not enough in itself to crystallise Germany’s mounting exasperation with Brussels and the European Institutions. But it vastly complicates the next big test of the Brussels regime: how to prevent another lost decade and a sovereign debt crisis in the Club Med bloc, and who will pay for the rescue.No such thing as euroscepticism exists in the Federal Republic. At least not in the way it is understood in its various forms in the UK, the Netherlands, the Nordics, Eastern Europe, France, Italy, or (spasmodically) Ireland. But the scale of this error has left its mark on the German collective mind.
Die Zeit calls this episode “the best advertisement for Brexit”. Bild Zeitung calls it “checkmate Brussels”. There is a knock-about feel to these outbursts. What ought to worry the Commission and Germany’s pro-EU elites more is a deeper critique of the EU project from very well-informed quarters.
Daniel Stelter, Germany’s corporate guru, writes in the insider publication Manager Magazin that this crisis has exposed something rotten at the core. “It is dawning on the German and European population that the political class has failed across the board in meeting the enormous economic and social challenges of the Corona crisis. It marks the accelerating decline of the EU,” he said.
He accused politicians of “trying to throw sand in our eyes” and seeking to divert blame with squalid populist gestures. “Everybody in the economic sphere now knows that whenever there is a problem at a production site in the EU, there is a risk of being hit with an export ban: vaccines today, biotech tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow what?”
“This destruction of trust in the EU as a place of business (Standort EU) is all of a piece with its tendency towards over-regulation and planned-economy control. The gap between wish and reality in the EU is greater than ever. By failing to procure vaccines, the EU has validated Brexit and given all EU citizens an objective reason for euroscepticism,” he said.
The danger for Europe lies in the intersecting effect of vaccine paralysis and an even longer economic downturn. The glacial roll-out and lack of doses may delay recovery by three months. That is an extremely expensive failure in terms of political credibility and recessionary metastasis.
“We see the EU's vaccine crisis having three successive inter-related effects: a prolonged lockdown, a longer second leg of our double-dip recession, and an anti-incumbent mood,” said Wolfgang Münchau's EuroIntelligence.
The vaccine saga exposes a great number of EU pathologies, starting with the breathtaking absence of apology. Heads would roll in a democratic state. The EU’s constitutional structure shields the executive from accountability. Ursula von der Leyen breezily insisted yesterday that the handling of vaccine procurement had been a great success.
Sandra Gallina, the EU trade negotiator elevated to director-general of health, was defiant before a committee of Euro-MPs. The EU is in the “top league” on vaccine roll-out. “I’m not jealous of what Biden is doing because in actual fact the situation here in Europe is, may I say, better,” she said. On vaccines? Really?
Officials cannot shake the habit of self-congratulation. Martin Selmayr, the Commission’s eminence grise, tweeted that the jabs were proceeding marvellously: the EU had vaulted ahead of Africa. Such is the pontine doctrine of Commission Infallibility.
The errors made in acquiring vaccines were not accidental. They were inherent in the ideology of the institution. This dysfunctional culture keeps making mistakes each time it ventures into a new terrain, and then has great trouble correcting itself. Without revisiting the maddening themes of farm and fish policy, what about the EU’s first stab at a carbon emissions trading scheme? It was a byword for market illiteracy. Nobody died. It has now been reformed. But you don’t get such a second chance in a pandemic.
In this case it was an elemental error to put trade hagglers in charge of a health emergency. Rather than spend months trying to drive down the price - when the imperative was time - the Commission should have done the opposite. Germany’s IfO Institute said it should have paid a dose premium to bring forward production since the cost of pandemic measures in lost GDP is hundreds of times greater. IfO calculates that the economic utility of each shot is €1,500.
The EU treated Big Pharma as the enemy when it should have been pulling out all the stops to help these companies. “Liability and indemnification, these were really important for us,” said Ms Gallina yesterday. Well quite. That was the problem.
One can sympathise with the desire to hold the 27 states together, which necessarily slows everything down and leads to the lowest common denominator. “Just imagine what might have happened if some richer or luckier member countries such as Germany, the home of BioNTech, had used their clout and deep pockets to secure a disproportionate share of vaccines for themselves,” said Holger Schmieding from Berenberg Bank.
But even here, the Commission’s motive was in part to take Big Pharma down a few notches by acting as a unified bloc and showing who was boss. It was about power. Just as the Brexit negotiations were about power, not trade, and certainly not about peace in Northern Ireland.
However you distribute the blame, the fact remains that the Commission seized on the pandemic to increase its powers and then botched the operation horribly. So what will this mean for confidence in its management of the €750bn Recovery Fund, the other great power-grab by Brussels since Ursula von der Leyen took the helm?
The German, Dutch, Austria, and Nordic parliaments are already suspicious over the use of this slush fund. Allegations that Italian premier Giuseppe Conte was conspiring to siphon off money for political patronage triggered last week’s collapse of his government. The Bundestag’s Grand Inquisitor, Wolfgang Schauble, is already growling.
It is going to be much harder to rustle up another fiscal stimulus, a Recovery Fund Mark II. One awaits the icy response when Northern taxpayers are asked to cough up hundreds of billions more. Germany agreed to fund big transfers after the first wave of Covid because Italy and Spain had been devastated, while the North had been largely spared. Nobody has been spared this time.
But if there is no mega-stimulus, Club Med will be left languishing in structural depression, notwithstanding an initial dead cat bounce from reopening. One thing everybody agrees on is that monetary union cannot survive another protracted slump in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. The debt ratios will spiral higher. Polities will react.
Spursex
Alert Team
Part II
Berlin will have to decide whether to embrace a genuine fiscal and debt union: the Hamiltonian solidarity - all for one, and one for all - that was carefully dodged last year. The decision may have to be made in the run-up to the German elections in September in a mood of disgust over the vaccines. “Germany is going to have another moment of truth,” said David Marsh, head of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.
We have yet to discover how much financial and economic damage has been done below the water line by Covid. Delayed recovery undoubtedly means that debt legacies in southern Europe will be even worse than suggested by the main forecasting bodies just weeks ago. Italy’s debt may approach 170pc of GDP.
The default policy setting in the eurozone is austerity-lite. Covid relief is winding down across Club Med. It is not as bad as the demonic tightening after the Lehman crisis but arguably the needs are even greater this time. Bank of America says there is a fiscal gap of 10pc of GDP.
The contrast with the Rooseveltian blast-off policies in the US is staggering. If Joe Biden gets most of his latest stimulus package, the accumulated total will be 25pc of GDP in direct crisis relief and fiscal transfers since last March.
The EU’s €750bn Recovery Fund is more publicity stunt than macro-stimulus. Half come in the form of loans that mostly displace borrowing that would have happened anyway. The €390bn in actual grants is spread over five years between 27 countries. Italy will receive just 0.7pc of GDP a year once its own payments as an EU net contributor are stripped out. The sums arriving this year are just a trickle.
“Since last summer a bubble of complacency has surrounded the EU’s recovery package,” said Prof Adam Tooze from Columbia University. The Recovery Fund has already been dwarfed by a 10pc collapse in fixed capital investment last year, compared to 1.7pc in the US.
“By virtually every measure, the recession in Europe in 2020 was far worse and the policy response less adequate. The conclusion is inescapable. For all the commendable determination to avoid the mistakes of 2010, the ECB, Europe’s governments and the Commission have not done enough. What Europe needs most of all is a second big fiscal push,” he wrote.
Once again, the ECB will have to paper over trouble with funny money. It will have to continue its disguised (or at least denied) monetary-fiscal rescue of southern European governments. Should it cease to do so - or even hint at an end to bond purchases - markets will take instant flight. The implicit sovereign bankruptcy of Italy will become explicit. Debt restructuring will be on the table. That will unleash the political demons.
The German constitutional court - the self-described “people’s court” - has already ruled that the ECB is acting ultra vires and beyond its legal mandate. None of us know whether Germany will let the ECB go full Reichsbank or whether it will finally say that enough is enough. But either way that decision will have to be confronted over the next year or two. When it comes, the vaccine nightmare will not be forgotten or forgiven.
Berlin will have to decide whether to embrace a genuine fiscal and debt union: the Hamiltonian solidarity - all for one, and one for all - that was carefully dodged last year. The decision may have to be made in the run-up to the German elections in September in a mood of disgust over the vaccines. “Germany is going to have another moment of truth,” said David Marsh, head of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.
We have yet to discover how much financial and economic damage has been done below the water line by Covid. Delayed recovery undoubtedly means that debt legacies in southern Europe will be even worse than suggested by the main forecasting bodies just weeks ago. Italy’s debt may approach 170pc of GDP.
The default policy setting in the eurozone is austerity-lite. Covid relief is winding down across Club Med. It is not as bad as the demonic tightening after the Lehman crisis but arguably the needs are even greater this time. Bank of America says there is a fiscal gap of 10pc of GDP.
The contrast with the Rooseveltian blast-off policies in the US is staggering. If Joe Biden gets most of his latest stimulus package, the accumulated total will be 25pc of GDP in direct crisis relief and fiscal transfers since last March.
The EU’s €750bn Recovery Fund is more publicity stunt than macro-stimulus. Half come in the form of loans that mostly displace borrowing that would have happened anyway. The €390bn in actual grants is spread over five years between 27 countries. Italy will receive just 0.7pc of GDP a year once its own payments as an EU net contributor are stripped out. The sums arriving this year are just a trickle.
“Since last summer a bubble of complacency has surrounded the EU’s recovery package,” said Prof Adam Tooze from Columbia University. The Recovery Fund has already been dwarfed by a 10pc collapse in fixed capital investment last year, compared to 1.7pc in the US.
“By virtually every measure, the recession in Europe in 2020 was far worse and the policy response less adequate. The conclusion is inescapable. For all the commendable determination to avoid the mistakes of 2010, the ECB, Europe’s governments and the Commission have not done enough. What Europe needs most of all is a second big fiscal push,” he wrote.
Once again, the ECB will have to paper over trouble with funny money. It will have to continue its disguised (or at least denied) monetary-fiscal rescue of southern European governments. Should it cease to do so - or even hint at an end to bond purchases - markets will take instant flight. The implicit sovereign bankruptcy of Italy will become explicit. Debt restructuring will be on the table. That will unleash the political demons.
The German constitutional court - the self-described “people’s court” - has already ruled that the ECB is acting ultra vires and beyond its legal mandate. None of us know whether Germany will let the ECB go full Reichsbank or whether it will finally say that enough is enough. But either way that decision will have to be confronted over the next year or two. When it comes, the vaccine nightmare will not be forgotten or forgiven.
Greavswasthegreatest
Vital Football Legend
My summary ...Unaccountable unelected decision makers are very dangerous self indulgent individuals.
