Coronavirus | Page 6 | Vital Football

Coronavirus

NottyImp said:
Yes, I've seen that reported. I never expected the mortality rate to be as high as the originally quoted 3 - 4% figure, if only because that was based on incomplete data. Neither do I expect it to be as low as 0.02% as quoted on this thread.

We won't know for quite some time what it really is. However, back-of-the-envelope calculations are possible. New Jersey's Governor has just tweeted that SARS-CoV-2 has killed more people in his State in 6 weeks than the last 3 seasonal 'flu outbreaks combined. With the pandemic far from over, that suggests a lethality of at least 3 times that of a typical seasonal 'flu virus.

And that isn't the only relevant factor, of course. SARS-CoV-2 has a far higher infection ratio than typical 'flu. Estimates again vary, but the lowest I've seen is 2.5 and the highest (suggested from Ireland) is 5. 'Flu is typically around 1.3- 1.4. That makes it probably 3 times as contagious as 'flu.

*reaches for back of envelope again*

If you're keen on risk assessment, you multiply the factors. 3 x 3 gives us a figure of 9 - let's round that to 10. That means SARS-CoV-2 is 10 times as high a risk as seasonal 'flu. Or, to put it another way, it will probably put something like *10 times* the pressure on health services if allowed to run free as seasonal 'flu would. Think about that for a moment, especially in the context of headlines that often speak of the NHS "at breaking point" in just a typical 'flu season.

That's what lock-down is about - in this country, at least. If your health system goes into melt-down, more people die from everything. Many more.
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Best educated guesses on CFR so far are somewhere between 0.5 and 1%.
 
So our Poundshop Churchill skipped 5 Cobra meetings?!

Probably too much like hard-work with some detailed thought required for a lazy gobshite like him.
 
NottyImp said:
So our Poundshop Churchill skipped 5 Cobra meetings?!

Probably too much like hard-work with some detailed thought required for a lazy gobshite like him.
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The key takeaway for me is that pandemic was number 1 in the governments disaster probabilities, an exercise took place in 2016 (as they do regularly) and *none* of the recommendations were even followed up on...

Our government infrastructure is absolutely f**king massive and yet we were apparently unable to deal with implementing 2 different activities of significant size at the same time...

Boris not attending meetings is absolutely standard Boris behaviour and could have been predicted by anyone I reckon..
 
Sincilbanks said:
The key takeaway for me is that pandemic was number 1 in the governments disaster probabilities, an exercise took place in 2016 (as they do regularly) and *none* of the recommendations were even followed up on...

Our government infrastructure is absolutely f**king massive and yet we were apparently unable to deal with implementing 2 different activities of significant size at the same time...

Boris not attending meetings is absolutely standard Boris behaviour and could have been predicted by anyone I reckon..
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Yep, I knew about that 2016 exercise.

Governance in this country - regardless of who is in power - is sclerotic.

And let's not forget that Michael Gove was quite clear that this country has had "enough of experts".
 
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Not exactly convinced by the Department of Health and Social Care's rebuttal yesterday. While there might be the odd valid point in it, a lot of it is just responses saying yeah we did something to challenges of inactivity, or they just answer a different question. This one is particularly bad. It's basically, it is ridiculous to suggest something that wasn't suggested.

Claim - By the time the Prime Minister chaired a COBR meeting on March 2 ‘the virus had sneaked into our airports, our trains, our workplaces and our homes. Britain was on course for one of the worst infections of the most insidious virus to have hit the world in a century.'

Response - This virus has hit countries across the world. It is ridiculous to suggest that coronavirus only reached the UK because the Health Secretary and not the PM chaired a COBR meeting.



https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52362099

Gee, I wonder what possible arcane, unknowable magic we could dream up to find out the answer? Oh hang on we could, y'know, test people who were there to find out...that thing we do to track a virus' spread and isolate and quarantine the infected and those who came into contact with them? Jeez, as an admission that we kind of just gave up this is as close as it gets...
 
Sincilbanks said:
Excellent news for getting furlough payments to companies. First signs are this will be pretty straightforward? If so that's something the government has done very well...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52346685
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Absolutely, praise where it's due. As I've said to you previously, the Government's response financially and economically has been good. Perhaps Rishi Sunak is actually competent.

Although, I think he's wrong on this issue:

"Speaking at Monday's news briefing, UK chancellor Rishi Sunak rejected claims the government was too slow to cancel large sporting events in the days before the coronavirus lockdown was enforced."
 
Sincilbanks said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52362099

Gee, I wonder what possible arcane, unknowable magic we could dream up to find out the answer? Oh hang on we could, y'know, test people who were there to find out...that thing we do to track a virus' spread and isolate and quarantine the infected and those who came into contact with them? Jeez, as an admission that we kind of just gave up this is as close as it gets...
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WHO reporting only 2-3% infected. The *only* way to come out of lock-down with such low numbers is mass testing and contact-tracing.
 
sedgleyimp said:
The tests beginning at Oxford tomorrow will still take months to get right if at all. Vaccine production does not occur on a Hollywood timescale unfortunately
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Totally, if we get a vaccine in a year of starting investigating it will be the fastest vaccine development in human history.

mRNA vaccine primer here, because the media will be hooking onto this as the next big news thing soon I suspect

https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243
 
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