Coronavirus | Page 44 | Vital Football

Coronavirus

"Boris Johnson has indicated he has not read a government-commissioned report setting out urgent measures needed to prepare for a possible second wave of coronavirus, telling the Commons only that he was “aware” of it."

Godd to see Johnson on top of things, as usual. :lol:
 
Some fantastic news coming out of an Oxford University study and reported in the Telegraph this morning:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ugh-herd-immunity-prevent-second-coronavirus/

Not a mention of this on the BBC or The Guardian though as far as I can tell. Why on earth not? Isn't this extremely worthwhile news to report from a very credible research source?

Sadly, it seems their headlines today are all about preparing for the second wave and the race to vaccine...

But of course, they've got no fear-mongering agenda whatsoever...
 
SwedishImp said:
Some fantastic news coming out of an Oxford University study and reported in the Telegraph this morning:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ugh-herd-immunity-prevent-second-coronavirus/

Not a mention of this on the BBC or The Guardian though as far as I can tell. Why on earth not? Isn't this extremely worthwhile news to report from a very credible research source?

Sadly, it seems their headlines today are all about preparing for the second wave and the race to vaccine...

But of course, they've got no fear-mongering agenda whatsoever...
Click to expand...

Love to read it, but it's paywalled...
 
Sincilbanks said:
Love to read it, but it's paywalled...
Click to expand...

There you go (there's also 1-month free subscription on the DT at the moment)...

The UK may have already achieved a sufficient level of herd immunity to stop a second wave of coronavirus, an Oxford University study has suggested.
Scientists believe the "threshold" of herd immunity may have been lowered because many people may already be immune to the disease without ever having caught it.

According to a new model produced by an Oxford University team led by Professor Sunetra Gupta, as little as 20 per cent of the population may need to be resistant to the virus in order to prevent a new epidemic spreading.

"It is widely believed that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) required to prevent a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 is in excess of 50 per cent for any epidemiological setting," the study says.

"Here, we demonstrate that HIT may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses.

"These results help to explain the large degree of regional variation observed in seroprevalence and cumulative deaths, and suggest that sufficient herd immunity may already be in place to substantially mitigate a potential second wave."

Leading experts have already suggested that a sizeable number of people may have immunity against coronavirus because of its similarity to viruses including the common cold.

The Oxford model, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, suggests that when resistant people mix with non-resistant people, the herd immunity "threshold" drops sharply.

Read the full study here

"Given the mounting evidence that exposure to seasonal coronaviruses offers protection against clinical symptoms, it would be reasonable to assume that exposure to SARS-CoV-2 itself would confer a significant degree of clinical immunity," the study says.

"Thus, a second peak may result in far fewer deaths, particularly among those with comorbidities in the younger age classes."

Last month, Sir John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford University, who is working with a team at Oxford to develop a vaccine, said there was likely to be a "background level" of protection for a "significant number of people".

"There is probably background T-cell immunity in people before they see the coronavirus, and that may be relevant that many people get a pretty asymptomatic disease," he said.
 
"The UK may have already achieved a sufficient level of herd immunity to stop a second wave of coronavirus, an Oxford University study has suggested.
Scientists believe the "threshold" of herd immunity may have been lowered because many people may already be immune to the disease without ever having caught it."

Well that's not what the study says to me?
"Given the mounting evidence that exposure to seasonal coronaviruses offers protection against clinical symptoms (9), it would be reasonable to assume that exposure to SARS-CoV-2 itself would confer a significant degree of clinical immunity. Thus, a second peak may result in far fewer deaths, particularly among those with comorbidities in the younger age classes."

"Equally, seropositivity measures of 10-20% are entirely compatible with local levels of immunity having approached or even exceeded the HIT, in which case the risk and scale of resurgence is lower than currently perceived."

Reduce it, yes? Reduce deaths, yes? Reduce deaths significantly for younger age groups? Yes,

Stop a second wave? Doesn't say that?

Which isn't to say this isn't good news, of course it is. Let's hope the appropriate peer review bears it out...
 
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