51 Points achieved, next target ... | Page 2 | Vital Football

51 Points achieved, next target ...

Doncaster's two games in hand are both away, they still have 13 aways to play.

Accrington are slowly drifting away, their form over the last eight games puts them 12th in the form table.

Much-fancied Fleetwood are now 15th, having picked up three points from the six games since they sacked Joey Barton. I wonder where they will end up, now cheque book football is no longer allowed?
 
Scotimp said:
Doncaster's two games in hand are both away, they still have 13 aways to play.

Accrington are slowly drifting away, their form over the last eight games puts them 12th in the form table.

Much-fancied Fleetwood are now 15th, having picked up three points from the six games since they sacked Joey Barton. I wonder where they will end up, now cheque book football is no longer allowed?
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Back in the Northern Premier League I hope.
 
I've just had a look through our remaining fixtures and done a rough prediction of what I think our results could be, even with losing another 6 games and a few draws in here and there i think we can get another 41 points on the board and that's being pessimistic. That would end us on 92, which could either be enough for 2nd or if we're unlucky 3rd place judging by the last few seasons.
 
Spinimp said:
I've just had a look through our remaining fixtures and done a rough prediction of what I think our results could be, even with losing another 6 games and a few draws in here and there i think we can get another 41 points on the board and that's being pessimistic. That would end us on 92, which could either be enough for 2nd or if we're unlucky 3rd place judging by the last few seasons.
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One of course could use the reknown Fishy league predictor.

https://thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php

The only good thing to come out Grimsby other than the A46!
 
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I’ve just had a go. Put in just our modest results ie a few defeats and draws and allowed it to do its thing and we finished second to Donny. If you let it work the whole thing out I think it said 4th or 5th :unsure:
 
I think our next target should be to maintain our average of 2 points per game and just let all the others bust a gut (Evans), to try and catch us. UTI
 
Eweimps said:
I’ve just had a go. Put in just our modest results ie a few defeats and draws and allowed it to do its thing and we finished second to Donny. If you let it work the whole thing out I think it said 4th or 5th :unsure:
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A little thing called unconsious bias comes into play when one inputs results however, harsh one thinks they are being.
 
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Although the league is decided by having gained the highest points total, it follows that the team which drops fewest points will win. Points dropped can never be regained, they are lost forever. You can only move up if teams above you drop points. With that in mind, the current situation is this -

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It's noticeable that a month ago the widespread question was, "Do we really think that we are promotion contenders?" The question is no longer asked and more likely to be regarding can we be in the top two?
 
Ex-Ref said:
It's noticeable that a month ago the widespread question was, "Do we really think that we are promotion contenders?" The question is no longer asked and more likely to be regarding can we be in the top two?
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For me, there are four things that have concentrated the feeling that a top two position is a real possibility,

1) the draw against Peterborough, followed by the win at Portsmouth, draw at Hull and outplaying Doncaster, showed we are as good, if not better than our peers at the top of the table,
2) some great performances against a number of different clubs, sometimes with what were nominally our weaker teams, where opposition managers and fans have said we are the best team they have played against this year,
3) the inability of other teams (with the possible exception of Doncaster) to maintain a run that challenges the top two. Both Peterborough and Portsmouth have flattered to deceive and then faltered as they were in striking distance of the top. Several times Hull have had the chance to create a gap at the top and then lost two on the trot to drop back to 2nd or 3rd,
4) we are beginning to run down the season. We are over the mid-way hump and every week there is less time for teams in the middle of the league and bottom of the play-offs to put together a run to overhaul us.

Meanwhile, we have consistently been reeling in 2 points a game, even against the top teams in the league. I think our status amongst the other teams has also changed, we are now the team to catch and no longer the team they expect to blow up as the season progresses.
 
Now, this set of messages is titled 51 points achieved.
Yes, but:
I've just been doing a study all national divisions with a fully completed 46 game programme (this dates back to the 1950-51 season and covers what is now the Championship, FL1, FL2 and National League Premier) (also adjusted all earlier leagues to 3 points for a win, put back any points deducted, and re-ordered all tables accordingly).
From all that (177 tables in total), 50 points would on average be enough to finish above bottom four places. However, on 55 occasions 50 points was not enough, on 32 occasions 51 points was not enough, on 16 occasions 52 points was not enough, on 7 occasions 53 points was not enough, and on 1 occasion 54 points was not enough (that team was relegated in 4th spot with 55 points).

So! Conclusion is we are far from safe fron relegation at the moment !!! 🙄🙄🙄
 
To me, the thing we've done really well is beat the poor teams. We've played 17 times against the teams currently in 9th position and downwards, and won 14 of them. That's very much better than any other team, and if we repeat that in the second half of the season that would be another 36 points (there are only 15 games against them left).

Capture.PNG
 
HoofGrantBrown said:
Now, this set of messages is titled 51 points achieved.
Yes, but:
I've just been doing a study all national divisions with a fully completed 46 game programme (this dates back to the 1950-51 season and covers what is now the Championship, FL1, FL2 and National League Premier) (also adjusted all earlier leagues to 3 points for a win, put back any points deducted, and re-ordered all tables accordingly).
From all that (177 tables in total), 50 points would on average be enough to finish above bottom four places. However, on 55 occasions 50 points was not enough, on 32 occasions 51 points was not enough, on 16 occasions 52 points was not enough, on 7 occasions 53 points was not enough, and on 1 occasion 54 points was not enough (that team was relegated in 4th spot with 55 points).

So! Conclusion is we are far from safe fron relegation at the moment !!! 🙄🙄🙄
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Have you got a tin hat mate 😂🤣
 
cherryexile said:
Now that we are on 51 points and Keith's mystical relegation minimum.
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Its not mystical, its more a statement of fact that a 50 point haul will ensure safety from relegation. I have not been back through the records, but has a club ever been relegated on 50 points? I know the last time the Imps were in the 3rd tier it was a high points total to avoid the drop back to the 4th tier, 49 points rings a bell. But, generally 50 points is easily sufficient to avoid demotion.
 
HoofGrantBrown said:
Now, this set of messages is titled 51 points achieved.
Yes, but:
I've just been doing a study all national divisions with a fully completed 46 game programme (this dates back to the 1950-51 season and covers what is now the Championship, FL1, FL2 and National League Premier) (also adjusted all earlier leagues to 3 points for a win, put back any points deducted, and re-ordered all tables accordingly).
From all that (177 tables in total), 50 points would on average be enough to finish above bottom four places. However, on 55 occasions 50 points was not enough, on 32 occasions 51 points was not enough, on 16 occasions 52 points was not enough, on 7 occasions 53 points was not enough, and on 1 occasion 54 points was not enough (that team was relegated in 4th spot with 55 points).

So! Conclusion is we are far from safe fron relegation at the moment !!! 🙄🙄🙄
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And therein lies the problem with all of this: the compacted nature of this season is likely to produce very inconsistent outcomes and a different set of variables - just look at the skewed data relating to home advantage to begin with. Will that change over the second half of the season? I think this season has some big surprises in store yet.
 
The Electric Banana said:
A little thing called unconsious bias comes into play when one inputs results however, harsh one thinks they are being.
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I notice more than a little on Mark Lawrenson’s BBC predictions )))
Do people judging unconscious bias also have unconscious bias? Or confirmation bias?
 
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