The Business/Finance/Economics Thread | Page 21 | Vital Football

The Business/Finance/Economics Thread

The Cheesecake Factory's share price is higher now than it was in Feb 2020. I'm not sure if it's because of the market's fizziness or because they are going to emerge into a much less competitive market post-pandemic.
 
BodyButter said:
The Cheesecake Factory's share price is higher now than it was in Feb 2020. I'm not sure if it's because of the market's fizziness or because they are going to emerge into a much less competitive market post-pandemic.
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I don’t know anything about Cheescake factory though I recognise the name, seems quite popular in the states.

I think casual dining will rebound in the trendy , affordable places, over here the two big ones are Nando’s and Wagamama. Nando’s is private, however I’ve piled in on The Restaurant Group who own Wagas. I’ve also piled in on the cheapo, casual gyms - The Gym Group. As you say, all helped by the demise of the higher cost operations who couldn’t survive.
 
@BodyButter and @danvilla2 supposedly they have some new innovative style restaurants or services that they've come up with. Plus you have a lot of independent places going out of business so less competition, cheaper real estate. They'll be one of the winners now as they come out of this even stronger.

My recovery plays are SPG - the Mall REIT (biggest position, people love malls and they're still going), Spirit Airlines - Ryanair of America (probably the first to recover because of its low cost but risky), small position in Airbnb (I'll be out of this by the end of the year its just a trade) and I have a speculative position in $AMC theatres which will either go to zero or double.
 
danvilla2 said:
Whats the deal with them CDX? Historical Financials look shocking yet share price has trebled... all looks a bit speculative
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Wall Street Bets on Reddit successfully pumped it. There is 140% short interest. So looks like a short squeeze. Another theory emerged that market makers fucked up and sold too many calls without hedging enough shares. Truth be told I don't fully understand it. The theory is that it was a 'gamma squeeze' something related to the concentration of $60 call options purchased by WSB. Some random on reddit who allegedly has a financial background and who was shorting the stock said $100-200MM was lost at hedge funds and trading desks today. Supposedly there was significant interest in ensuring the price closed below $60 today which it didnt.

I understand the market perspectives a little better than what actually happened. Bear case is they are a brick and mortar business in an industry that is increasingly moving toward digital. So the market had priced it for death, aka another Blockbuster.

However, the bulls make a case that the business is not dead yet. They have $300MM free cash flow. They are moving toward a digital business. A new generation of consoles has just been released and at least in the near and medium-term people still want physical disks, consoles etc. for computer games.

I think you'll see something similar with $AMC. Its another market viewed as dead. I have a small spec position (less than $500) because I dont think thats true either. I understand it with Gamestop because I have not set foot in one in 5+ years. I have been to cinemas and I intend to go to the cinema when things are back to normal. I think the stock will at least double by summer but who knows. Its either $0 or 100% price appreciation. I think they only have enough cash to get to the summer however I think anyone who has made it this far will survive.
 
Honestly kind of feels like one of Trumps laws except he hates the media. Adapt or die for these news outlets IMO.
 
CDX_EIRE said:
Honestly kind of feels like one of Trumps laws except he hates the media. Adapt or die for these news outlets IMO.
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Ultimately some of the 'FANG' companies will have to adapt to governments worldwide, antitrust/competition laws will come for them.
 
https://nope-its-lily.medium.com/gamestop-power-to-the-market-players-part-1-d8863f2f8604

@danvilla2

Gamestop: Power to the Market Players (Part 1)

Apparently we all decided it’s 2006 again, because the hottest tech stocks around are $GME and $BB. I can’t wait until we can use AIM again and I can break out my Zune. So what’s going on exactly?
If you’ve been anywhere in the trading universe, it’s been partly a meme and partly a higher calling to long $GME since about July/August 2020, when everyone suddenly realized the short interest on $GME actually exceeded its available float. In English, this meant that there were more shares sold short (a strategy to benefit from the stock price going down, this involves borrowing a share to sell with the intent to repurchase it at a lower cost later) than actually available to buy. How does this happen exactly?

The moral of the story here is retail, for better or for worse, finally learned how to weaponize options. We’ll see what happens next.
 
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I see Gamestop almost hit $150 today. It's currently at $88. That's still up on where it opened today, $65.
 
The market was insanity today and its only 12PM - a massive correction can only be around the corner.
 
Yeah I have a much bigger cash position now and I bought a couple of things on the dip this morning. Sold out a lot of the more speculative stuff right at the top. Got a little lucky.

Only spec position open now is AMC which is high risk high reward. They've enough to get them to July but my theory is most companies that have made it this far will survive.
 
CDX_EIRE said:
Yeah I have a much bigger cash position now and I bought a couple of things on the dip this morning. Sold out a lot of the more speculative stuff right at the top. Got a little lucky.

Only spec position open now is AMC which is high risk high reward. They've enough to get them to July but my theory is most companies that have made it this far will survive.
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Congratulations. It seems that WSB are looking to short squeeze AMC too.
 
Apparently, Gamestonk got up to around $350 in the premarket. It's at $234 right now and falling fast. Will it go back to $10 today?
 
The stock market has gone mad, if they do bankrupt these hedge funds it might cause a short-term market crash.

A lot of seemingly strong companies dipped quite a bit today. Which I assume was companies covering their short positions and unwinding some of their longs.
 
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