#COVID19 | Page 411 | Vital Football

#COVID19

You are mixing up what a resigned member of sage Is saying and what the govt is saying. Many govt attributed statements are actually kite flying by the media. At present some MP are floating the idea that if some things have to close to limit risk, would it be better to close pubs rather than schools. This is a valid adult debate. At present, very little backlash has been voiced, so if required could become policy. At present no official line has been taken on this. To make out a throw away personal comment by a past advisor as being official policy is pushing it even for you.
 
Pope John XXIII said:
Lockdown Will Need To Be 'Tightened' If Schools Are Fully Reopened, Says Neil Ferguson https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/neil-ferguson-schools-lockdown_uk_5f2a7a88c5b6e96a22ab8cc8

I am so pissed off reading this.

This is the exact opposite of what they were saying in May and June when they were calling teachers cowards and communists for asking whether it was safe to return before summer.

Back then they talked exclusively about primary schools, as if secondaries didn't exist. Now, magically, older teens can spread it just as much as adults; something they mysteriously didn't ever talk about back then.

Too late. We have to open, not doing so is simply not an option
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Yes, as I was at pains to point out. Gove was lying when he said he knew it was perfectly safe for schools to return. Not that he was necessarily wrong in his conclusion, just that nobody knew. There is obviously a bit more data now and lessons to be learnt from many countries around the world that have done it well and others that have done it very poorly.

If Ferguson is right (and I'm sure the knowledgeable folk on here will be along soon to say he's a discredited scientist with a poor reputation in further tatters and that he is solely responsible for the UK's economic collapse), let's hope we can get R down to <0.66 before September, just to be on the safe side. (I presume he means a relative rise of 0.5 rather than an addition of the absolute value of 0.5.)
The error bracket on his analysis is a rise in R of 0.2-0.5, so schools re-opening when R is 0.83 might still be ok.

Having said that, I don't know what the assumptions in his model are. If it is a return to school with exactly the same operating practices as last September then it isn't really relevant because you will, no doubt, have different policies and practices aimed at reducing transmission.
 
Polly 433 said:
You are mixing up what a resigned member of sage Is saying and what the govt is saying. Many govt attributed statements are actually kite flying by the media. At present some MP are floating the idea that if some things have to close to limit risk, would it be better to close pubs rather than schools. This is a valid adult debate. At present, very little backlash has been voiced, so if required could become policy. At present no official line has been taken on this. To make out a throw away personal comment by a past advisor as being official policy is pushing it even for you.
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Is it the media what is kite flying or the government?
They are known to do that. The media is just the conduit.

He didn't resign because he's a bad scientist (which he may or may not be). He resigned because he broke the lockdown rules to shag someone. That has no bearing on his model.


And, again, the complaint was that official policy was that schools reopening was definitely safe back in May. That wasn't a throwaway comment by a disgraced scientist, it was the cabinet on every news outlet that they bothered to talk to.
 
in_the_top_one said:
Is it the media what is kite flying or the government?
They are known to do that. The media is just the conduit.

He didn't resign because he's a bad scientist (which he may or may not be). He resigned because he broke the lockdown rules to shag someone. That has no bearing on his model.


And, again, the complaint was that official policy was that schools reopening was definitely safe back in May. That wasn't a throwaway comment by a disgraced scientist, it was the cabinet on every news outlet that they bothered to talk to.
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I am not claiming what they are saying it is right or wrong. What I am attempting to highlight, is some attempting to describe politicians as officially announcing something when it is a non official advisor.

Kite flying is a well recognised way of testing public opinion but let’s recognise it for what it is rather than claim it is official policy.
 
in_the_top_one said:
There y'go. I told you someone would be along any second to discredit him :-)
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You misinterpret discredit of him rather than questioning the status of the announcement. His opinion is valid as a leading academic in the field but he now has no official status. Thus it is not an official statement and cannot be painted as such.
 
Polly 433 said:
I am not claiming what they are saying it is right or wrong. What I am attempting to highlight, is some attempting to describe politicians as officially announcing something when it is a non official advisor.

Kite flying is a well recognised way of testing public opinion but let’s recognise it for what it is rather than claim it is official policy.
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I read it that Pope was complaining about the official policy back in May and June where they were claiming it was safe and vilifying teachers and now it appears that teenagers are capable of spreading it just as well as adults.
I'm sure official policy hasn't changed and that the government expect schools to fully reopen in September. Whether they tighten up other areas as Ferguson suggests MIGHT be necessary is a different debate.
I doubt they will though. I also doubt it is necessary. What is galling is the unfounded overconfidence of ministers back in May.
 
Polly 433 said:
You misinterpret discredit of him rather than questioning the status of the announcement. His opinion is valid as a leading academic in the field but he now has no official status. Thus it is not an official statement and cannot be painted as such.
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I guess we're at cross purposes.
I didn't see Pope claiming that Ferguson's comment was going to lead to policy. That's something you introduced.
 
Polly 433 said:
You are mixing up what a resigned member of sage Is saying and what the govt is saying. Many govt attributed statements are actually kite flying by the media. At present some MP are floating the idea that if some things have to close to limit risk, would it be better to close pubs rather than schools. This is a valid adult debate. At present, very little backlash has been voiced, so if required could become policy. At present no official line has been taken on this. To make out a throw away personal comment by a past advisor as being official policy is pushing it even for you.
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Excuse me?

Do you want to point out where in my post I said the word "government" or mentioned the current government specifically? Or even policy?
 
It was Ferguson and Imperial College’s wild predictions (that up to 500,000 people in Britain could die of the virus) that were comical. That was just before he was forced to resign after breaking the lockdown rules by having an affair with a polyamorous lover; we can gloss over this though as it’s not relevant, neither is the fact that his partner (Antonia Staats) is a left-wing campaigner.

It’s pretty reasonable to state that Ferguson and modelling have an appalling track record.
When his Covid model was applied to Sweden by Uppsala University, it forecasted 90,000 deaths by the end of May if there was no lockdown. True figures: 4,350 deaths by the end of May (5,747 to date)

This tolerance in the figures is not new though. He does have previous when it comes to catastrophism.
In 2005 he said up to 200million people could die from bird flu – the final global death toll 2003-2009 was 292.
In 2009, the UK government based its ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ for the impact of swine flu in Britain on Ferguson’s models, saying around 65,000 people could die. Guess what? In the end just 457 people died.

I’d quite happily play soggy biscuit with Mr Ferguson, because the chances of him hitting the target are close to zero.
 
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Apollyon said:
@Our Kids Dad time to put these into Off Topic as recorded in th Triple M minutes for you to do THREE WEEKS AGO
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+1
This is the revolving incinerator forum with occasional threads about Triumph Mods, canal boats, brie and the royal family. People need to get that into their thick heads so we can return to the glory days; the ones that we all reminisce about when perusing the popsheet, over a glass of parnsip wine, chap.
 
Apollyon said:
Theres an off topic section for this sort of waffle.

FisHcakes and trainers are part of the football scene chap.
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Purpose of a forum is to have people visiting and posting.

More people will post with these threads where they are, because they are interesting to a fair few people; hence the number of posts.

It's the off season and the part of the transfer window where fuck all is happening. It's taken the club two weeks to finally decide to retain the manager. So there isn't much football to talk about.

You know what these threads are and you know what you need to do to avoid them. It's not hard. I don't post on threads I have no interest in.

I would hope OKD would keep them here.
 
Pope John XXIII said:
Purpose of a forum is to have people visiting and posting.

More people will post with these threads where they are, because they are interesting to a fair few people; hence the number of posts.

It's the off season and the part of the transfer window where fuck all is happening. It's taken the club two weeks to finally decide to retain the manager. So there isn't much football to talk about.

You know what these threads are and you know what you need to do to avoid them. It's not hard. I don't post on threads I have no interest in.

I would hope OKD would keep them here.
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Could not agree more. Without the temptation of these, I'd have never come back on and it goes without saying that it'd be poorer on here sans moi.
 
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