In some areas of the UK certainly. Even in areas where there hasn't been an increase you would expect a change in the sample mix,as you test more widely as opposed to just care homes and hospitals,as the virus peters out.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Sincilbanks
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In some areas of the UK certainly. Even in areas where there hasn't been an increase you would expect a change in the sample mix,as you test more widely as opposed to just care homes and hospitals,as the virus peters out.
Sincilbanks
Vital Football Hero
There's been an increase in *capacity* can't see a significant increase in tests processed
If you look at the 7 day average-on the 1st July it was 136,728 and increased to 153,253 on the 29th,an increase of 12%. The last 2 days (31.7 and 1.8) show a huge increase to 206,656 and 190,220.
stokeimp
Vital 1st Team Regular
Won't take issue with any of your points, but would just say that an old friend of ours is in a local care home (and is getting stir crazy because they won;t let the residents out!) and he is being tested fortnightly, and the staff weekly
Sincilbanks
Vital Football Hero
That is excellent news, my partners father however has been tested once since May
Sincilbanks
Vital Football Hero
So any increase in testing in the last 2 days is kind of irrelevant to the increase that's been happening in the last 3 to 4 weeks. And a 12% increase isn't really significant when compared to the rise in cases. New cases are now estimated to be 4,200 per day (up from 3,200) which is a 31% rise per day over the last 3 weeks or so.
Prevalance in the population is now approximately 1 in 1500
On the 15th July it was 1 in 1800
On the 2nd July it was 1 in 2000
And as a final kicker, if these new cases are simply a result of increased testing then all that means is we have put the brakes on too late, it's been rising long before we knew the scale of it and we're behind the curve (yet again)
Chesterimp
Vital Football Hero
Has anyone else been contacted to participate in a research project by NHS/Imperial College/Ipsos Mori for Covid antibody prevalence via large sample testing (hence Mori's involvement)
I received my testing kit a couple of days ago, did the test this morning (negative). All helps the cause.
I received my testing kit a couple of days ago, did the test this morning (negative). All helps the cause.
There may be a trend, but the scatter and confidence intervals are pretty wide -
0.03% may have the virus, but the 95% confidence interval is 0.01-0.06%
(data of 3 weeks ago) https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...land17july2020#covid-19-infection-survey-data
HitherImp
Vital Football Hero
Also that PHE are sending in targeted testing into areas of concern now, even door-to-door in some cases. Still a long way to go though
HitherImp
Vital Football Hero
I haven't but a friend has, they're taking a big sample here!
I live in Leicester which is still in partial lockdown and had a PHE doorstep visit just recently-the test was negative.
Our daughter said two of her friends (in their 30s) had randomly received kits and both tested positive.
NottyImp
Vital Football Legend
I assume they're now isolating for 14 days?
Sincilbanks
Vital Football Hero
None of the numbers are going in the right direction though, unfortunately...
Sincilbanks
Vital Football Hero
They'll be fine, they are young and healthy, it's only the old and ill who are affected by this virus...
Sincilbanks
Vital Football Hero
The Atlantic with a long article about the car crash that is the US reaction to this pandemic..
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/09/coronavirus-american-failure/614191/
In the first half of 2020, SARS‑CoV‑2—the new coronavirus behind the disease COVID‑19—infected 10 million people around the world and killed about half a million. But few countries have been as severely hit as the United States, which has just 4 percent of the world’s population but a quarter of its confirmed COVID‑19 cases and deaths.
Trump could have spent those crucial early weeks mass-producing tests to detect the virus, asking companies to manufacture protective equipment and ventilators, and otherwise steeling the nation for the worst.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/09/coronavirus-american-failure/614191/
In the first half of 2020, SARS‑CoV‑2—the new coronavirus behind the disease COVID‑19—infected 10 million people around the world and killed about half a million. But few countries have been as severely hit as the United States, which has just 4 percent of the world’s population but a quarter of its confirmed COVID‑19 cases and deaths.
Trump could have spent those crucial early weeks mass-producing tests to detect the virus, asking companies to manufacture protective equipment and ventilators, and otherwise steeling the nation for the worst.
Sincilbanks
Vital Football Hero
Japan experiencing the apparently mythical 2nd wave
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...the-virus-had-gone-now-it-s-spread-everywhere
But now the island nation is facing a formidable resurgence, with Covid-19 cases hitting records nationwide day after day. Infections first concentrated in the capital have spread to other urban areas, while regions without cases for months have become new hotspots. And the patient demographic -- originally younger people less likely to fall seriously ill -- is expanding to the elderly, a concern given that Japan is home to the world’s oldest population.
Experts say that Japan’s focus on the economy may have been its undoing. As other countries in Asia, which experienced the coronavirus earlier than those in the West, wrestle with new flare ups of Covid-19, Japan now risks becoming a warning for what happens when a country moves too fast to normalize -- and doesn’t adjust its strategy when the outbreak changes.
While Japan declared a state of emergency to contain the first wave of the virus, it didn’t compel people to stay home or businesses to shut. That was ended in late May and officials quickly pivoted to a full reopening in an attempt to get the country’s recessionary economy back on track. By June, restaurants and bars were fully open while events like baseball and sumo-wrestling were back on -- a stark contrast to other places in the region like Singapore which were re-opening only in cautious phases.
Japan’s haste may have been premature, say experts.
“This is the result of the government prioritizing economic activity by getting people to move around again over infection control,” said Yoshihito Niki, a professor of infectious diseases at Showa University’s School of Medicine.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...the-virus-had-gone-now-it-s-spread-everywhere
But now the island nation is facing a formidable resurgence, with Covid-19 cases hitting records nationwide day after day. Infections first concentrated in the capital have spread to other urban areas, while regions without cases for months have become new hotspots. And the patient demographic -- originally younger people less likely to fall seriously ill -- is expanding to the elderly, a concern given that Japan is home to the world’s oldest population.
Experts say that Japan’s focus on the economy may have been its undoing. As other countries in Asia, which experienced the coronavirus earlier than those in the West, wrestle with new flare ups of Covid-19, Japan now risks becoming a warning for what happens when a country moves too fast to normalize -- and doesn’t adjust its strategy when the outbreak changes.
While Japan declared a state of emergency to contain the first wave of the virus, it didn’t compel people to stay home or businesses to shut. That was ended in late May and officials quickly pivoted to a full reopening in an attempt to get the country’s recessionary economy back on track. By June, restaurants and bars were fully open while events like baseball and sumo-wrestling were back on -- a stark contrast to other places in the region like Singapore which were re-opening only in cautious phases.
Japan’s haste may have been premature, say experts.
“This is the result of the government prioritizing economic activity by getting people to move around again over infection control,” said Yoshihito Niki, a professor of infectious diseases at Showa University’s School of Medicine.
Do you have a link to the database that you are getting the figures from. The official govt figures are showing a flat trend. On July 1st the 7 day average was 857 cases,July 31st it was down to 737.
