Coronavirus | Page 50 | Vital Football

Coronavirus

Sincilbanks said:
Japan experiencing the apparently mythical 2nd wave

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...the-virus-had-gone-now-it-s-spread-everywhere

But now the island nation is facing a formidable resurgence, with Covid-19 cases hitting records nationwide day after day. Infections first concentrated in the capital have spread to other urban areas, while regions without cases for months have become new hotspots. And the patient demographic -- originally younger people less likely to fall seriously ill -- is expanding to the elderly, a concern given that Japan is home to the world’s oldest population.

Experts say that Japan’s focus on the economy may have been its undoing. As other countries in Asia, which experienced the coronavirus earlier than those in the West, wrestle with new flare ups of Covid-19, Japan now risks becoming a warning for what happens when a country moves too fast to normalize -- and doesn’t adjust its strategy when the outbreak changes.

While Japan declared a state of emergency to contain the first wave of the virus, it didn’t compel people to stay home or businesses to shut. That was ended in late May and officials quickly pivoted to a full reopening in an attempt to get the country’s recessionary economy back on track. By June, restaurants and bars were fully open while events like baseball and sumo-wrestling were back on -- a stark contrast to other places in the region like Singapore which were re-opening only in cautious phases.

Japan’s haste may have been premature, say experts.

“This is the result of the government prioritizing economic activity by getting people to move around again over infection control,” said Yoshihito Niki, a professor of infectious diseases at Showa University’s School of Medicine.
Click to expand...

And again, it's all about the cases.

According to the official stats, Japan's 'second wave' began around the end of June:

Capture.JPG

So what's the scorecard on daily deaths?

Capture2.JPG
I appreciate the fatality rate will be something to watch given the sharp increase in cases. This will be interesting as while Japan does have one of the oldest populations in the world, they also have one of the healthiest.

On a more general point, 6 months into this crisis, I'd say Japan has been one of the major success stories - population of 130,000,000 and total deaths hitting just over 1,000. Hardly the kind of figures to push the country into shutdown and all the problems (and extra deaths) that causes surely?

One I'll be keeping my eye on for sure in the weeks ahead.
 
SwedishImp said:
Some interesting stats about under 45s from Euromomo highlighted by the Off Guardian here:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/08/01/the-uks-excess-deaths-are-by-far-the-youngest-in-europe-why/
Click to expand...

A quote from that article, something I had noticed (though not confined to the young) - So what is going on in England? Is it entirely due to Covid19? If so, why does it stop so sharply at the borders?

While reported deaths in England rumble on at about 60 per day, there has only been one in Scotland in the past month.

I don't think we can be comparing apples with apples.
 
NottyImp said:
I assume they're now isolating for 14 days?
Click to expand...

According to the NHS website, that is apparently unnecessary -

"Important
If you get a positive antibody test result (you have coronavirus antibodies), you still need to follow the same social distancing advice as everyone else.
This includes staying 2 metres (3 steps) away from other people and washing your hands often."
 
Bazzzer said:
According to the NHS website, that is apparently unnecessary -

"Important
If you get a positive antibody test result (you have coronavirus antibodies), you still need to follow the same social distancing advice as everyone else.
This includes staying 2 metres (3 steps) away from other people and washing your hands often."
Click to expand...

Oh, I see - anti-body test. I misread that as a test for being still infected.
 
SwedishImp said:
And again, it's all about the cases.

According to the official stats, Japan's 'second wave' began around the end of June:

View attachment 41207

So what's the scorecard on daily deaths?

View attachment 41208
I appreciate the fatality rate will be something to watch given the sharp increase in cases. This will be interesting as while Japan does have one of the oldest populations in the world, they also have one of the healthiest.

On a more general point, 6 months into this crisis, I'd say Japan has been one of the major success stories - population of 130,000,000 and total deaths hitting just over 1,000. Hardly the kind of figures to push the country into shutdown and all the problems (and extra deaths) that causes surely?

One I'll be keeping my eye on for sure in the weeks ahead.
Click to expand...

I think that's the whole point of the article, Japan had a brilliant success in nailing the virus and now is having to fight hard to prevent it's resurgence. Imagine how much worse it could be in countries that didn't have the same success before reopening their economy completely.

I think it's indicative that all of the countries which appeared to deal in a timely manner with the outbreak and have been praised for their reaction (Japan, S. Korea, Australia, New Zealand) when faced with a (relatively) small rise in cases have put the hammer back down with a swift second lock down to a lesser or greater extent (often localised).
 
Struggling to see this significant increase.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_2020-08-04 United Kingdom Coronavirus 305,623 Cases and 46,210 Deaths - Worldometer.png
    Screenshot_2020-08-04 United Kingdom Coronavirus 305,623 Cases and 46,210 Deaths - Worldometer.png
    54.2 KB · Views: 4
Sincilbanks said:
I think that's the whole point of the article, Japan had a brilliant success in nailing the virus and now is having to fight hard to prevent it's resurgence. Imagine how much worse it could be in countries that didn't have the same success before reopening their economy completely.

I think it's indicative that all of the countries which appeared to deal in a timely manner with the outbreak and have been praised for their reaction (Japan, S. Korea, Australia, New Zealand) when faced with a (relatively) small rise in cases have put the hammer back down with a swift second lock down to a lesser or greater extent (often localised).
Click to expand...

Japan and South Korea have had no lockdown.
 
57harry said:
Japan and South Korea have had no lockdown.
Click to expand...

Japan had a voluntary lockdown and nowhere near as severe as ours. We can argue about terms but it amounts to a severe restriction on social interaction

https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00592/

"Japan, however, has never enforced a lockdown with penalties, even when a national state of emergency was declared on April 15 in an expansion of the state of emergency for Tokyo and six other prefectures declared earlier on April 7. Instead, the government “requested” that people refrain from going out and that restaurants and bars suspend their business, without ever forcing them to close down. This soft approach was enough to achieve a de facto lockdown as people practiced risk aversion rather than bearing responsibility for spreading the virus, and those who feared social sanctions bowed to social pressure. "

S. Korea needed nowhere that level of lockdown even, because? (Pop quiz!)

Oh yes, comprehensive testing and tracing.

https://www.investec.com/en_gb/focu...ea-contained-covid-19-without-a-lockdown.html

Q: What were the crucial factors that led to South Korea flattening the curve?

A: I would say the readiness and rapid response were the keys to success for South Korea. South Koreans are well known to react expediently when confronted with crisis. Most of all, Korea had already developed very advanced medical systems and services, and the public in general had got used to confronting health threats coming from overseas or a neighbouring region; like micro dust [air pollution] and yellow dust [coming from the Gobi Desert in China in Spring] requiring usage of face masks.

Moreover, Koreans learned valuable lessons from previous epidemics like the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). A whole set of measures deployed rapidly by the government and public’s active compliance made the difference. In particular, an aggressive tracking and monitoring system as well as an extraordinary number of tests done in a short time were crucial.

And in both those countries, what's the reaction to a spike in cases? That's right, shut down parts of their economy...
 
stokeimp said:
Latest on this is that the 10 cases went quickly up to 11. They have so far tested 500 people and had around 130 results back. There have been an additional 5 cases of secondary infection found. As well as the 370 odd test results still awaited there are still 2 days of testing to go
Click to expand...

Looks like there are 19 positive cases from this one incident. I know it's local to me, but just shows how precarious things can be - and change and impact many people very quickly
 
stokeimp said:
Looks like there are 19 positive cases from this one incident. I know it's local to me, but just shows how preca
rious things can be - and change and impact many people very quickly
Click to expand...

You don't need to worry. They're won't be a second wave according to Harry57. And even if there is, he is happy to claim the IFR is only 0.05.

I mean, who do you trust? Harry57 or every epidemiology expert in the world?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.