Play-off Watch | Vital Football

Play-off Watch

S

Straightbat

Vital Reserves Team
Half way through the season I posted that we had played 22 matches for 29 points and predicted we would need 40 from the next 22 to make the play offs.

Played / Points / Still needed (?) / Ppg to date / Ppg needed / Date
22 / 29 / 40 / 1.32 / 1.82 / 29/12
27 / 36 / 33 / 1.33 / 1.94* / 29/1

* i.e. one win and one draw every two games.

We have more draws than any other team in the league including 4 out of the last 5 matches since my half way post.

Only 3 teams have let in fewer goals per match so far this season, so the diagnosis of the problem is unchanged; and although SE has tried to address the remedy, history shows we would have to perform at the level of the best one or two teams in years when they achieve at least 90 points over a season (in a 24 team league) for the remainder of our games, just to make the last play off spot.

VERDICT (Gills end of year divisional movement - ^ V or =) .... =

Now suppose we win our next 3...ppg required would become 1.71. Just saying...

...and overall, just dressing up the obvious with statistics that only tell us what we already know!!
 
I wrote a week or so ago that the next 8 or 9 games (inc Rochdale just gone) would determine our play-off credentials.

In that time we play pretty much all the teams around and below us. None of the top 6 or 8.

If we can win a majority of those, we should be at least in with a chance come the last month or so of the season.

Realistically tho, you’d have to say 6th spot is probably out of our reach. Mainly due to the big number of teams also in the reckoning. If we had to make up 6pts on just 2 or 3 teams, that might be attainable. But there are many teams all likely to be 4 - 6 pts ahead of us that we would have to overtake.

If we had won 2 or 3 of our recent draws we’d be right in the mix. As it stands we need one of those excellent runs that very good teams are capable of. Say 4 or 5 wins on the trot. Teams like Oxford, Rotherham, Ipswich etc have had runs like that this season. Are we capable of that?
 
After tomorrow we could be 16th. We've got a hell of a lot of work to make the play-offs!
 
Our problem could be the number of teams who have games in hand, both above and below us. Whilst they won't all win their games in hand, it only needs a couple for us to be cast adrift.
 
You have only considered who we have to play, not who the opposition have to play. For example, Sunderland have to play Ipswich and Portsmouth in two of their next three games, Coventry face Portsmouth and Peterborough face Ipswich and Oxford. So there is still a big old mire for the other teams to sort out.
 
Stating the bleeding obvious, but with nearly a full league of fixtures tonight, our possibility for a play of place could almost be decided. Should we loose tomorrow, I think that a gap of 9 points would probably be too much.

However, should a couple of results going our way and we win - game on:hmmm:
 
Toward the end of each season a team from mid-table surges into the play-offs - no reason why it can`t be us - we are much improved, playing with confidence and suddenly look much sharper up front. The measure of our improvement is that contemplation of such an assertion back in August would have been a bit mad !

I`m already more than satisfied in how the season has gone and a mid-table finish would be a success. But, there`s no way that SE will telling his players that they will likely finish 14th - he`ll be telling them that a play-off position is realistic and they are capable of making it happen. I`m more than happy to go along with that - and will do so until such time as it`s a mathematical impossibility.

Cue a sing-song........ UTG.
 
What concerns me is the 'solution' was bringing in more potent forward(s). Now admittedly one game should be far too soon to assess how the new signings will affect team performances and results, but, in the last game they did make, or at least one of them, a very significant impact even to the extent of resolving a long-standing issue of ineffective set pieces.

And yet we still only came out with a draw...
 
As nice as it is to dream, I think we're too far off. We have to make up 6 points (minimum, given games in hand), and would have to perform at play-off position form on top of making up that points gap. We'd likely need just under 2 points per game- Ipswich in 1st place at the moment are going at 1.77. So we'd need to do the equivalent of walking the league between now and the end of the season.

Unless the end to the transfer window turns out to be remarkable, we'll be midtable. Around 10th would be a good finish. It is very nice not to be worried about relegation for a change, at least!
 
I think we can nick 6th place.
It’s doable with a decent run.
As long as we are going into the last half dozen games with a mathematical chance, I’ll be happy.
 
Whatever the outcome we as a club are in a good place, I would obviously be over the moon with a play off place, I’ve probably not got enough time for us to be premiership side, but I think I will see us play in championship, only one thing will stop us, Evans/Rayner leave.
 
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