Pope John XXIII
Vital Football Legend
Preamble (my own personal nonsense, skim or just don't bother reading)
I'm sure the first thing we think of with Swansea is probably the same for us as for them; a playoff semi final in 2011.
I suspect it is a much more seminal moment for them than it is in our memories; for them it was a major, proud event because it took them to 7 years of Premier league football and their modern glory years.
For us, it was just another playoff where we lost to the better team. That one was probably the clearest of our four miserable playoff defeats actually. I suppose it could have ended differently, but I've never really seen that playoff as anything other than a deserved win from a superior Swansea side.
Of course, that was the season where we signed both Pratley and Whittingham in the summer, as promised by Marthur. Both were raring to go, but seemed anonymous all season, almost as if they weren't there. Culminating in a playoff appearance for Pratley where he played so badly for us that it felt like he was actually trying to help Swansea, before he scored that ridiculous own goal late on to settle it for his former club.
For us that was just another playoff defeat. It meant 11 players leaving, the end of our most successful manager of the millennium and 7 seasons of struggle, with perhaps a couple of brief periods of false hope.
This won't be as auspicious. If you look at the Swansea media you would imagine that they are a team of spotless monks who have renounced all worldly vices (such as spending money or experienced players) and are playing the game in such a fashion as would make Guardiola proud. If you read their rag you would get the impression of forest as a crooked Fagin like character, epitomising much of what is wrong with the game and appalling the world with our Profligacy. It isn't like that. Swansea aren't like that either. I hope we can give them a suitable welcome to the Championship that reminds them it isn't summer 2011 anymore.
That said, I do like Swansea. They were supportive of us when we went up in 2008 with them, and I remember them coming to the forum I was on at the time to say "well done, you made it". I find Swansea itself to be like a much friendlier version of Mansfield; all of the social problems but without the general feeling that everyone hates each other automatically.
Swansea's Style and formation.
Swansea are a short passing, counter attacking side (my sort of team actually) and have tended to a play a 4-3-3 formation for most (4) of their games so far, winning 2, drawing 1 and losing 1 like this. Their last game, a win away at Milwall they moved to a 4-4-2 to accommodate McKay being dropped from the front three. This formation beat Milwall even with Swansea down to 10 men, so it's possible they will use this again. However, I suspect they will revert to 4-3-3 to mimic the way Wigan and Brentford were able to press us into a shambles early on in the game.
In key statistics they are actually neck and neck with us. We tend to have more of the ball (53% for us to 49% for them). Passing accuracy is very similar (73% for us Vs 75% for them). We win more aerial duels (24 to 22, and don't forget this; it is massive progress from last season). We have scored more goals and have not shots per game, but they take their chances more and defend better.
Well, so to speak. We make twice as many tackles as them, far more interceptions, catch the opposition offside more... But is that great defending, or just a busy defence? Given recent experiences, it feels like the latter as midfield fails to protect the defenders.
Swansea are particularly strong attacking down the wings, with the left seeing more action than the right. They love their through balls, so we need defenders who think and act quickly. They have also shown a strong ability to come back from losing positions (but then, so have we).
This is a team that on paper should beat us as we are now. We have been particularly vulnerable to counter attacks and attacks down the wings, which is exactly Swansea's strength. There isn't really much in our repertoire so far that they are vulnerable to.
But these are early days. We have seen only bits of what this forest team can do. We have seen us be a match for anything in this division at times, as well as having a streak of ruthlessness when coming back from losing.
Swansea will copy Wigan, Brentford and Brum in coming fast out of the blocks, putting pressure on our Fullbacks and pressing us out of the game until we crumble. We need to get an early foot into the game.
Players- attacking
Two thirds of Swansea's goals have come from just one player; Oliver McBurnie a 22 year old they picked up from Bradford in 2015. He is one of those young players that rich PL clubs can afford to take a punt on, hoard, and who then suddenly appear from nowhere when they come down. He has scored 4 goals so far, mostly with his right foot but he is also a significant aerial threat. He scored 9 on loan with Barnsley so is 2018's top Championship scorer. This is a young talented player who is bang on form and exactly the sort of player who would bury a header or loose ball in our area in the first five minutes before we have woken up.
Another key attacker is Bersant Celina, a 22 year old Kosovan who can play across the attacking midfield. He has tended to be played either left or in the centre and has one assist. He's not one for the defending though, so when he plays opposite McKay they are vulnerable on both flanks.
Obviously there is Barrie McKay. There is little to say that has yet to be said already, but he is largely replicating his form with us; outstanding in his first couple of games before having a few where he wavered between anonymous and poor. He did not play last game with a virus but his last game against Bristol was poor. He has one assist and is hoping to score his first goal against us.
Joel Asoro is another young (19) midfielder who they paid £2m for from Sunderland. He is a right winger who is an outstanding dribbler of the ball with a mean long shot- but he is also easy to knock off the ball. He is also yet to score, but has an assist.
Also to look out for us Tom Carroll, signed from Spurs for £4.5m in 2017. He has one of their best pass completion rates and is a real threat with crosses and set pieces. However, he is weak in the air and his performances have been pretty mediocre.
Jay Fulton has played 5 of their games so far. He is a DCM who can play comfortably in a midfield 3. He's not a sharp passing DCM like Vaughan (60% completion) but his tackling is superb and he is charged with doing the job that Watson and Colback are struggling to do between them.
So where do their goals come from?
Basically, McBurnie and headers from defenders. They don't score many- 6 (less than us) and no attacker other than McBurnie has got on the scoresheet yet. One of their goals has come from their loanee Yan Danda in his 5 minutes of match time so far.
Keeping them out isn't that hard as long as you don't play like idiots (oh dear). Scoring past them is the hard part.
Players- Defensive
Three of their top 5 performers so far have been defenders, notably Joe Rodon at CB. Rodon is 22, superb in the air but rubbish at tackling. He has averaged very high ratings in all the tough matches where Swansea have had to defend solidly, such as wins against Preston and the onslaught at St Andrews.
Mike van den Hoorn is the Dutch defender who plays alongside him. He is also good in the air but can tackle as well. He has also been a collossus in those tough games.
Connor Roberts (22, RB) and the old man of the squad Olssen complete the likely squad.
Swansea have been strong defensively, with their young players putting in some resolute performances. But they are a young side doing very well. We are unfortunately playing them after a good break, but all the familiar problems we have had with a predominantly young side will come to the fore. We also have young players but have blended that with experienced and we need to exploit their inexperience rather than be overrun by their confidence.
Form
They have won three , lost one and drawn 2 of their 6 championship games. However, their two wins were both early in the season. They won the last game impressively at Milwall but have stuttered between that. They are a young team and will have all of the form problems that we are familiar with.
Head to head is quite even. In 2011 we won at the CG but lost both matches at the Liberty. We beat them at the Liberty the season before amid 3 straight wins. Their ground is neither a happy nor miserable hunting ground for us. Karanka howevee has never win in Wales.
Official Vatican Prediction
Infogol don't rate either team on expected goals, calimin that we are both in a 'false' position. They give a 45% chance of a Swansea win compared to 28% for us.
I think that's about right. I think we will have learned little and implement even less in these two weeks. I think they will come flying and we'll make early mistakes that we can't come back from.
0-2 within half and hour and it'll stay there, with maybe a goal back from us.
Weather Report
It will be a very grey 15°c. It's September, what more do you want?
Inspirational picture
Not what you think.
This is probably the best day of my forest supporting life. Sad I know, but it's the day we escaped the hell of League One. No promotion to the PL will ever be as important. And it was Swansea we went up automatically with. We were equals then, buddies in escaping the third tier. We have gone in different directions since, but at some point we will have this day again- hopefully not in that division
I'm sure the first thing we think of with Swansea is probably the same for us as for them; a playoff semi final in 2011.
I suspect it is a much more seminal moment for them than it is in our memories; for them it was a major, proud event because it took them to 7 years of Premier league football and their modern glory years.
For us, it was just another playoff where we lost to the better team. That one was probably the clearest of our four miserable playoff defeats actually. I suppose it could have ended differently, but I've never really seen that playoff as anything other than a deserved win from a superior Swansea side.
Of course, that was the season where we signed both Pratley and Whittingham in the summer, as promised by Marthur. Both were raring to go, but seemed anonymous all season, almost as if they weren't there. Culminating in a playoff appearance for Pratley where he played so badly for us that it felt like he was actually trying to help Swansea, before he scored that ridiculous own goal late on to settle it for his former club.
For us that was just another playoff defeat. It meant 11 players leaving, the end of our most successful manager of the millennium and 7 seasons of struggle, with perhaps a couple of brief periods of false hope.
This won't be as auspicious. If you look at the Swansea media you would imagine that they are a team of spotless monks who have renounced all worldly vices (such as spending money or experienced players) and are playing the game in such a fashion as would make Guardiola proud. If you read their rag you would get the impression of forest as a crooked Fagin like character, epitomising much of what is wrong with the game and appalling the world with our Profligacy. It isn't like that. Swansea aren't like that either. I hope we can give them a suitable welcome to the Championship that reminds them it isn't summer 2011 anymore.
That said, I do like Swansea. They were supportive of us when we went up in 2008 with them, and I remember them coming to the forum I was on at the time to say "well done, you made it". I find Swansea itself to be like a much friendlier version of Mansfield; all of the social problems but without the general feeling that everyone hates each other automatically.
Swansea's Style and formation.
Swansea are a short passing, counter attacking side (my sort of team actually) and have tended to a play a 4-3-3 formation for most (4) of their games so far, winning 2, drawing 1 and losing 1 like this. Their last game, a win away at Milwall they moved to a 4-4-2 to accommodate McKay being dropped from the front three. This formation beat Milwall even with Swansea down to 10 men, so it's possible they will use this again. However, I suspect they will revert to 4-3-3 to mimic the way Wigan and Brentford were able to press us into a shambles early on in the game.
In key statistics they are actually neck and neck with us. We tend to have more of the ball (53% for us to 49% for them). Passing accuracy is very similar (73% for us Vs 75% for them). We win more aerial duels (24 to 22, and don't forget this; it is massive progress from last season). We have scored more goals and have not shots per game, but they take their chances more and defend better.
Well, so to speak. We make twice as many tackles as them, far more interceptions, catch the opposition offside more... But is that great defending, or just a busy defence? Given recent experiences, it feels like the latter as midfield fails to protect the defenders.
Swansea are particularly strong attacking down the wings, with the left seeing more action than the right. They love their through balls, so we need defenders who think and act quickly. They have also shown a strong ability to come back from losing positions (but then, so have we).
This is a team that on paper should beat us as we are now. We have been particularly vulnerable to counter attacks and attacks down the wings, which is exactly Swansea's strength. There isn't really much in our repertoire so far that they are vulnerable to.
But these are early days. We have seen only bits of what this forest team can do. We have seen us be a match for anything in this division at times, as well as having a streak of ruthlessness when coming back from losing.
Swansea will copy Wigan, Brentford and Brum in coming fast out of the blocks, putting pressure on our Fullbacks and pressing us out of the game until we crumble. We need to get an early foot into the game.
Players- attacking
Two thirds of Swansea's goals have come from just one player; Oliver McBurnie a 22 year old they picked up from Bradford in 2015. He is one of those young players that rich PL clubs can afford to take a punt on, hoard, and who then suddenly appear from nowhere when they come down. He has scored 4 goals so far, mostly with his right foot but he is also a significant aerial threat. He scored 9 on loan with Barnsley so is 2018's top Championship scorer. This is a young talented player who is bang on form and exactly the sort of player who would bury a header or loose ball in our area in the first five minutes before we have woken up.
Another key attacker is Bersant Celina, a 22 year old Kosovan who can play across the attacking midfield. He has tended to be played either left or in the centre and has one assist. He's not one for the defending though, so when he plays opposite McKay they are vulnerable on both flanks.
Obviously there is Barrie McKay. There is little to say that has yet to be said already, but he is largely replicating his form with us; outstanding in his first couple of games before having a few where he wavered between anonymous and poor. He did not play last game with a virus but his last game against Bristol was poor. He has one assist and is hoping to score his first goal against us.
Joel Asoro is another young (19) midfielder who they paid £2m for from Sunderland. He is a right winger who is an outstanding dribbler of the ball with a mean long shot- but he is also easy to knock off the ball. He is also yet to score, but has an assist.
Also to look out for us Tom Carroll, signed from Spurs for £4.5m in 2017. He has one of their best pass completion rates and is a real threat with crosses and set pieces. However, he is weak in the air and his performances have been pretty mediocre.
Jay Fulton has played 5 of their games so far. He is a DCM who can play comfortably in a midfield 3. He's not a sharp passing DCM like Vaughan (60% completion) but his tackling is superb and he is charged with doing the job that Watson and Colback are struggling to do between them.
So where do their goals come from?
Basically, McBurnie and headers from defenders. They don't score many- 6 (less than us) and no attacker other than McBurnie has got on the scoresheet yet. One of their goals has come from their loanee Yan Danda in his 5 minutes of match time so far.
Keeping them out isn't that hard as long as you don't play like idiots (oh dear). Scoring past them is the hard part.
Players- Defensive
Three of their top 5 performers so far have been defenders, notably Joe Rodon at CB. Rodon is 22, superb in the air but rubbish at tackling. He has averaged very high ratings in all the tough matches where Swansea have had to defend solidly, such as wins against Preston and the onslaught at St Andrews.
Mike van den Hoorn is the Dutch defender who plays alongside him. He is also good in the air but can tackle as well. He has also been a collossus in those tough games.
Connor Roberts (22, RB) and the old man of the squad Olssen complete the likely squad.
Swansea have been strong defensively, with their young players putting in some resolute performances. But they are a young side doing very well. We are unfortunately playing them after a good break, but all the familiar problems we have had with a predominantly young side will come to the fore. We also have young players but have blended that with experienced and we need to exploit their inexperience rather than be overrun by their confidence.
Form
They have won three , lost one and drawn 2 of their 6 championship games. However, their two wins were both early in the season. They won the last game impressively at Milwall but have stuttered between that. They are a young team and will have all of the form problems that we are familiar with.
Head to head is quite even. In 2011 we won at the CG but lost both matches at the Liberty. We beat them at the Liberty the season before amid 3 straight wins. Their ground is neither a happy nor miserable hunting ground for us. Karanka howevee has never win in Wales.
Official Vatican Prediction
Infogol don't rate either team on expected goals, calimin that we are both in a 'false' position. They give a 45% chance of a Swansea win compared to 28% for us.
I think that's about right. I think we will have learned little and implement even less in these two weeks. I think they will come flying and we'll make early mistakes that we can't come back from.
0-2 within half and hour and it'll stay there, with maybe a goal back from us.
Weather Report
It will be a very grey 15°c. It's September, what more do you want?
Inspirational picture
Not what you think.
This is probably the best day of my forest supporting life. Sad I know, but it's the day we escaped the hell of League One. No promotion to the PL will ever be as important. And it was Swansea we went up automatically with. We were equals then, buddies in escaping the third tier. We have gone in different directions since, but at some point we will have this day again- hopefully not in that division
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