Match Thread: Shrewsbury Town v Lincoln City

[exhertsimp]

Agree with the last bit...

Think you have actually identified a general trend of winning sides defending leads by getting men behind the ball.

Virtually all the victories by the opposition are also with less possession for them!

The fact we win with more possession sometimes points us to being better than the average side.

Possession with intent to supply is offensive.

 

[NottyImp]

Possession with intent to supply is offensive.

And so, in football is possession without intent to supply (see MK Dons).

 

[Rasenimp]

Agree with the last bit...

Think you have actually identified a general trend of winning sides defending leads by getting men behind the ball.

Virtually all the victories by the opposition are also with less possession for them!

The fact we win with more possession sometimes points us to being better than the average side.

I don't think I agree with this being the sole trend here, although I'm not sure how I'd prove it with stats haha. Maybe Markhonesmagicstuds would have a better idea, but I don't think anywhere shows distribution of possession through a game.

This is just solely from eye test, but MK Dons - they didn't have more possession because we got in front and we sat in. They played like that all game even at 0-0.

Likewise, I don't think Gillingham (for example) got in front and then fell into a low block. I think they played that like that from the first minute and let us dictate possession? They did score relatively early, but I think they were always set up like that from the whistle.

Another example that might be better is say, Bristol Rovers at home when they beat us. I think we had a lot more possession in the first half and the pattern of play was the same throughout. They fell into a low block and eventually got ahead, the reason we had more possession isn't simply because they were defending a lead.

This was similar with Shrewsbury at Sincil Bank. They didn't have the ball and then stopped having it when they scored just before half time. The die was cast in terms of their patterns of play well before then.

My hypothesis is basically what you said -"Virtually all the victories by the opposition are also with less possession for them!" - and that is because that is a better way to nullify us. Sit in, don't commit bodies, defend balls into the box, hit us on the counter/play fairly direct, e.g. Rochdale, Gillingham, Bristol R. Make us break them down. I think Sunderland as per MarkHone's other post - they probably face it every week. Home and away.

We do better against teams playing more expansively when there is room for Johnson, Rogers etc to play.

The only clear times I recall that not really happening and us getting obliterated by a team outclassing us are the Sunderland and Pompey home games, the latter with much reduced personnel.