Pope John XXIII
Vital Football Legend
Preamble
This is one of those beautifully rare games in which we play a genuine wounded animal, laying down on its side, bleeding from every orifice, breathing shallowly and awaiting its own death.
To move away from metaphor, it's the kind of game where both sets of fans want a Forest victory; ourselves because the three points will almost end our season as a going concern, and Birmingham because gaining three points here and potentially staying Cotterill's execution would cost them so many more potential points in the future. We have all been there- you want your side to win, but know a defeat that ends a bad manager is 3 points lost that will benefit you with so many extra points down the line.
Birmingham will be dangerous. If the players are still playing for him (4 straight defeats suggests not) then they could easily bite us; if we offer up the kind of aerial generosity and general chaos in the box we have done in the last few games and gift them the first goal then we may not win; but if forest score first and early it's hard to see anything other than a comfortable procession.
While there are fans who retain some affection for sky-high Steve, many of us (including me) will never forget that period as the worst football we have ever had the misfortune to witness here and will be delighted to once again see him dispatched from our division.
"Style" of play
I don't need to look at any statistics to tell you that Birmingham are a long ball side under Cotterill. Not a 'i'm still sore about MW being sacked so I'm going to outright lie and say the new manager plays long ball and hope some people are stupid enough to believe me" kind of long ball, but a proper, full throttle, visit to the NHS walk in centre with a knackered neck, want to claw your eyes out longball.
Cotterill is responsible for the worst football style and philosophy I have ever seen at the CG (I'm going to assume that is applied even to the older fans). When the crowd are singing "we're Nottingham forest, we play on the floor" as we launch it into the clouds again, you know there is a problem.
Birmingham are exaftly like we were under Cotterill. They play in the air, winning 32 aerial duels a game (the most of any club I have seen). They play mostly through the centre and are very shot happy, with 12 shots per game. They also like taking potshots from distance as we used to under this clown. They play the standard 4-2-3-1, not that it matters when it's in the sky.
Not surprisingly, they don't tend to dominate possession (47%). Their passing is below average (70% accuracy) but they play to their strengths and when they do score, they are strong at holding the lead. Naturally they are a set piece threat.
But it's a case of 'when' they score. Birmingham are the lowest scorers in the league by some distance. Their 22 goals is some way off even Burton (26) and Bolton (29) and miles off us (41). They score 0.64 goals a game (compared to our 1.2). They do have some good individual players and can create goals from their skill and are happy to shoot, but they are terrible at finishing. I'm not saying that they aren't a goal threat- just that they are a club who don't believe they can score and we need to play in a way that confirms that in that belief. Score early and stay firm and they will likely throw in the towel.
If that weren't good enough for us, their defence is shite as well. Not forest level shite (they have conceded 2 goals fewer than us) but very close. Just as they are good at creating chances from individual skill, they are terrible at defending against skilful players. I think we are all grinning and thinking of the exact same slightly tubby player as we read that sentence.
They are also terrible at defending counter attacks and like all relegation sides are plagued by individual errors. If we avoid conceding and keep the pressure on them then they are likely to offer us a goal on a plate and are unlikely to come back from that.
Birmingham are going to be relegated this season in my view, because they have the perfect combination- clueless owners, clueless managers, awful defence and shocking attack.
They deserved to go down last season and had Huddersfield not behaved poorly and disrespected the competition for their own ends then they likely would have done.
Players
Redknapp, ever the specialist in spending other people's money, spent over £15m to transform them from relegation contenders at the end of a season to relegation contenders throughout a season.
Mostly he spent the money on the defence to shore that up. The consequence is that they have gone from conceding 1.3 goals per game last season to 1.5 goals a game this season. Spot on Harry.
The defenders don't look awful in fairness. The central pairing of Harper Dean and Marc Roberts on paper looks like it should be fine. But then, a central pairing of Michael Mancienne and Joe Worrall looks good on paper too but has actually performed even worse.
In front of them is a defensive midfield of summer signing Craig Gardner and Maikel Kieftenbald- again, both decent enough players. These are also the highest appearance makers with 24 games each. Birmingham seem to do a lot of rotation and I can't find any players who haven't missed nearly 1/3 of the season.
Up front they have a player we all fear... Jota. But they don't play him. He has only 13 starts and 2 goals all season for the £5m (panic buy) outlay. Cotterill uses him as a sub.
The top scorer is a Scot named Sam Gallagher with 6 goals from 20 starts. He's an attacking midfielder really who tends to take the lone striker role.
They also have Jutkiewitz and Isaac Vassell who can play there. Not particularly worried.
Attacking midfield looks ok but clearly isn't because they rarely score. Cheikh Ndoye plays centre and then we have Che Adams (2 goals) who rotates with the real threats- Jeramie Boga and Jacques Maghoma. Boga is 21, French and has been used literally in every advanced position and side by clueless Cotts. He is superb at dribbling and through balls and has scored 2 goals, but is a bit of a defensive liability. He also doesn't do much for others, with only 1 assist all season although he tends to average a key pass a game.
Maghoma is a 39 year old from DR Congo who plays centre or right side. He mostly scores from distance and has 4 so far this season with another 4 assists.
All in all, Birmingham are a side that are far worse in reality than on paper, but that is always a problem. They remind me of Hull, where you wonder how with their players they have performed so badly. Birmingham should not be below the likes of Bolton and Barnsley, but that's where they are and we need to do our job and respect that they have good players who could bite us on the arse.
Form
Forest are (embarrassingly) on our longest unbeaten run of the entire season- 3 games. That tells you everything you need to know really.
Birmingham are on a run of 4 straight defeats without even scoring. The reason they aren't dead and buried is because Cotterill got them on a mid season run of 5 wins and 2 draws in 10 games. They have collapsed after that. In all, I believe they have lost 14/25 under Cotterill and today may well be his final swansong.
Birmingham have the second worst away record in the division, having scored an embarrassing 10 points on the road, their last win being at Hillsborough when Wednesday had a man sent off. They have also beaten Reading. That's it.
Even better, they have kept one clean sheet in the last 18 visits to the City Ground - way back in October 2001 when they beat Paul Hart's young side. I feel that if we score they will struggle to come back, so.... Yeah.
On top of that, just like Wolves Birmingham are a side that Karanka has a bit of a hoodoo over. He has never lost to them.
Official Vatican Prediction
BBC say 53% chance of a home victory and only 21% chance for Birmingham. I would concur
But I can't remember us ever once winning a game that I have predicted us to win.
Therefore word from St Peter is that God is keeping optimistically schtum on this one
Weather Report
We've escaped more snow thankfully. We can expect a big black cloud thingy and the tropical luxury of 1°c with a wind chill temperature feeling like -4°c
inspirational Picture
Not inspiration so much, but our old friend Pitbull managed to ring Charlie Austin's dad to get us access to Birmingham's tactical nerve centre. Below is a photo he was able to take of Cotterill working out the tactics for today.
This is one of those beautifully rare games in which we play a genuine wounded animal, laying down on its side, bleeding from every orifice, breathing shallowly and awaiting its own death.
To move away from metaphor, it's the kind of game where both sets of fans want a Forest victory; ourselves because the three points will almost end our season as a going concern, and Birmingham because gaining three points here and potentially staying Cotterill's execution would cost them so many more potential points in the future. We have all been there- you want your side to win, but know a defeat that ends a bad manager is 3 points lost that will benefit you with so many extra points down the line.
Birmingham will be dangerous. If the players are still playing for him (4 straight defeats suggests not) then they could easily bite us; if we offer up the kind of aerial generosity and general chaos in the box we have done in the last few games and gift them the first goal then we may not win; but if forest score first and early it's hard to see anything other than a comfortable procession.
While there are fans who retain some affection for sky-high Steve, many of us (including me) will never forget that period as the worst football we have ever had the misfortune to witness here and will be delighted to once again see him dispatched from our division.
"Style" of play
I don't need to look at any statistics to tell you that Birmingham are a long ball side under Cotterill. Not a 'i'm still sore about MW being sacked so I'm going to outright lie and say the new manager plays long ball and hope some people are stupid enough to believe me" kind of long ball, but a proper, full throttle, visit to the NHS walk in centre with a knackered neck, want to claw your eyes out longball.
Cotterill is responsible for the worst football style and philosophy I have ever seen at the CG (I'm going to assume that is applied even to the older fans). When the crowd are singing "we're Nottingham forest, we play on the floor" as we launch it into the clouds again, you know there is a problem.
Birmingham are exaftly like we were under Cotterill. They play in the air, winning 32 aerial duels a game (the most of any club I have seen). They play mostly through the centre and are very shot happy, with 12 shots per game. They also like taking potshots from distance as we used to under this clown. They play the standard 4-2-3-1, not that it matters when it's in the sky.
Not surprisingly, they don't tend to dominate possession (47%). Their passing is below average (70% accuracy) but they play to their strengths and when they do score, they are strong at holding the lead. Naturally they are a set piece threat.
But it's a case of 'when' they score. Birmingham are the lowest scorers in the league by some distance. Their 22 goals is some way off even Burton (26) and Bolton (29) and miles off us (41). They score 0.64 goals a game (compared to our 1.2). They do have some good individual players and can create goals from their skill and are happy to shoot, but they are terrible at finishing. I'm not saying that they aren't a goal threat- just that they are a club who don't believe they can score and we need to play in a way that confirms that in that belief. Score early and stay firm and they will likely throw in the towel.
If that weren't good enough for us, their defence is shite as well. Not forest level shite (they have conceded 2 goals fewer than us) but very close. Just as they are good at creating chances from individual skill, they are terrible at defending against skilful players. I think we are all grinning and thinking of the exact same slightly tubby player as we read that sentence.
They are also terrible at defending counter attacks and like all relegation sides are plagued by individual errors. If we avoid conceding and keep the pressure on them then they are likely to offer us a goal on a plate and are unlikely to come back from that.
Birmingham are going to be relegated this season in my view, because they have the perfect combination- clueless owners, clueless managers, awful defence and shocking attack.
They deserved to go down last season and had Huddersfield not behaved poorly and disrespected the competition for their own ends then they likely would have done.
Players
Redknapp, ever the specialist in spending other people's money, spent over £15m to transform them from relegation contenders at the end of a season to relegation contenders throughout a season.
Mostly he spent the money on the defence to shore that up. The consequence is that they have gone from conceding 1.3 goals per game last season to 1.5 goals a game this season. Spot on Harry.
The defenders don't look awful in fairness. The central pairing of Harper Dean and Marc Roberts on paper looks like it should be fine. But then, a central pairing of Michael Mancienne and Joe Worrall looks good on paper too but has actually performed even worse.
In front of them is a defensive midfield of summer signing Craig Gardner and Maikel Kieftenbald- again, both decent enough players. These are also the highest appearance makers with 24 games each. Birmingham seem to do a lot of rotation and I can't find any players who haven't missed nearly 1/3 of the season.
Up front they have a player we all fear... Jota. But they don't play him. He has only 13 starts and 2 goals all season for the £5m (panic buy) outlay. Cotterill uses him as a sub.
The top scorer is a Scot named Sam Gallagher with 6 goals from 20 starts. He's an attacking midfielder really who tends to take the lone striker role.
They also have Jutkiewitz and Isaac Vassell who can play there. Not particularly worried.
Attacking midfield looks ok but clearly isn't because they rarely score. Cheikh Ndoye plays centre and then we have Che Adams (2 goals) who rotates with the real threats- Jeramie Boga and Jacques Maghoma. Boga is 21, French and has been used literally in every advanced position and side by clueless Cotts. He is superb at dribbling and through balls and has scored 2 goals, but is a bit of a defensive liability. He also doesn't do much for others, with only 1 assist all season although he tends to average a key pass a game.
Maghoma is a 39 year old from DR Congo who plays centre or right side. He mostly scores from distance and has 4 so far this season with another 4 assists.
All in all, Birmingham are a side that are far worse in reality than on paper, but that is always a problem. They remind me of Hull, where you wonder how with their players they have performed so badly. Birmingham should not be below the likes of Bolton and Barnsley, but that's where they are and we need to do our job and respect that they have good players who could bite us on the arse.
Form
Forest are (embarrassingly) on our longest unbeaten run of the entire season- 3 games. That tells you everything you need to know really.
Birmingham are on a run of 4 straight defeats without even scoring. The reason they aren't dead and buried is because Cotterill got them on a mid season run of 5 wins and 2 draws in 10 games. They have collapsed after that. In all, I believe they have lost 14/25 under Cotterill and today may well be his final swansong.
Birmingham have the second worst away record in the division, having scored an embarrassing 10 points on the road, their last win being at Hillsborough when Wednesday had a man sent off. They have also beaten Reading. That's it.
Even better, they have kept one clean sheet in the last 18 visits to the City Ground - way back in October 2001 when they beat Paul Hart's young side. I feel that if we score they will struggle to come back, so.... Yeah.
On top of that, just like Wolves Birmingham are a side that Karanka has a bit of a hoodoo over. He has never lost to them.
Official Vatican Prediction
BBC say 53% chance of a home victory and only 21% chance for Birmingham. I would concur
But I can't remember us ever once winning a game that I have predicted us to win.
Therefore word from St Peter is that God is keeping optimistically schtum on this one
Weather Report
We've escaped more snow thankfully. We can expect a big black cloud thingy and the tropical luxury of 1°c with a wind chill temperature feeling like -4°c
inspirational Picture
Not inspiration so much, but our old friend Pitbull managed to ring Charlie Austin's dad to get us access to Birmingham's tactical nerve centre. Below is a photo he was able to take of Cotterill working out the tactics for today.
