Europe In Out Shake it all about
- Thread starter kefkat
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villasince67
Vital Football Hero
So this week we have had Corbyn expressing doubts about Nato forces going into Estonia [despite the expansionist policies of Moscow] to bolster the defences of an EU state.
We have also had Pu**n's spokesman ****** ****** saying that the arrival of US tanks in Poland "threatens our interests and our security". He then said. "It isn't even a European country."
Poland isn't a European country????
The rise of nationalism, the potential for the break up the EU, expansionist policies, Trump .... it all adds up to very volatile mix.
We have also had Pu**n's spokesman ****** ****** saying that the arrival of US tanks in Poland "threatens our interests and our security". He then said. "It isn't even a European country."
Poland isn't a European country????
The rise of nationalism, the potential for the break up the EU, expansionist policies, Trump .... it all adds up to very volatile mix.
BringbakMON
Vital Football Hero
Well the beauty of open-ended timescales -
is that you're always going to be right
at some point (probably)
HeathfieldRoad1874
Miserable Sod
Economic models are more reliable the longer the term. We generally like to plan for a minimum of 5 years preferably 10. Such short term forecasts as used for Brexit are by their nature unreliable.
I would expect that things will take time to take effect, but by the time Article 50 is enforced, we should see the full effects. There's a finite timescale for you.
:5: :2:
I would expect that things will take time to take effect, but by the time Article 50 is enforced, we should see the full effects. There's a finite timescale for you.
:5: :2:
BringbakMON
Vital Football Hero
Good to hear short term forecasts are unreliable - quite agree.
It's a shame gideon wasn't as honest.
I trust your clients weren't negatively effected by such thinking.
Without doubt things will take time to take effect - trigger Art50 and whatever enforcing that might mean, swept along with whatever global events may or may not unfold.
'prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future'
Nils Bohr
It's a shame gideon wasn't as honest.
I trust your clients weren't negatively effected by such thinking.
Without doubt things will take time to take effect - trigger Art50 and whatever enforcing that might mean, swept along with whatever global events may or may not unfold.
'prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future'
Nils Bohr
BodyButter
Vital Football Legend
The only good thing about the constant goading of Russia is that Al Qaeda and the Islamic fanatics will be put back in their box to be played with another day.
US tanks in Poland only means one thing to Russia, Americans preparing for an invasion. If they didn't have a shit ton of nukes, they'd probably be getting nervous.
HeathfieldRoad1874
Miserable Sod
These Countries have asked for help, looking at Crimea and quite rightly they fear what Russian intentions are. Russia placed 300,000 troops along their Western borders first. We've only got about 30,000, so we are seriously outgunned.
NATO is actually reluctant to put troops in, but they have to respond to the requests from their allies.
NATO is actually reluctant to put troops in, but they have to respond to the requests from their allies.
danvilla2
I’m not an expert
The Ruskies are a funny breed of people, often highly academic (two degrees is a norm) yet they have an inherent distrust of other people and cultures which comes through in their politics and business (from experience not what I see on the news). A huge country with all the natural resources in the world you could possibly hope for, a cheap, skilled, educated workforce yet they feel the best way to become a global power house is through flexing their muscles rather than through economic growth. They aren't even in the top 10 (last time I looked) countries in the GDP league table, which is driven by they'd currency halving over the past few years as a result of the games in Ukraine.
The Russians largely support this, even those educated and working in the west often support the Putin philosophy and see him as the only man who can stand up to the west.
There must be an underlying dissatisfaction in Russia, there are highly educated, professionals who earn the equivalent of the minimum wage here. The cumulative of a very weak currency, high inflation and companies who can't afford to pay decent wages particularly if they haven't foreign debt, should make for a lot of unrest and a political movement against the government. But that's exactly what Putin handles very well.
It'll be interesting to see what comes out of the Putin regime in 30-40 years, I suspect there's a lot of hidden 'things' going on.
As for Brexit, I believe we (Britain) pushed for the sanctions against Russia several years ago after the EU nearly buckled. As a slightly les United continent I think we have to be very careful how we collaborate with and against Russia, they are a very dangerous threat to Europe. Fortunately for us, so much Russian capital is tied up in places such as New York, London and Cyprus, I suspect this gives the west a strong card when it comes to influencing the Russian elite oligarchs and businessman, these people could quickly become Putins enemy.
The Russians largely support this, even those educated and working in the west often support the Putin philosophy and see him as the only man who can stand up to the west.
There must be an underlying dissatisfaction in Russia, there are highly educated, professionals who earn the equivalent of the minimum wage here. The cumulative of a very weak currency, high inflation and companies who can't afford to pay decent wages particularly if they haven't foreign debt, should make for a lot of unrest and a political movement against the government. But that's exactly what Putin handles very well.
It'll be interesting to see what comes out of the Putin regime in 30-40 years, I suspect there's a lot of hidden 'things' going on.
As for Brexit, I believe we (Britain) pushed for the sanctions against Russia several years ago after the EU nearly buckled. As a slightly les United continent I think we have to be very careful how we collaborate with and against Russia, they are a very dangerous threat to Europe. Fortunately for us, so much Russian capital is tied up in places such as New York, London and Cyprus, I suspect this gives the west a strong card when it comes to influencing the Russian elite oligarchs and businessman, these people could quickly become Putins enemy.
kefkat
Vital Football Legend
I think this Sky article sums up Brexit and the deja vu we are going to be in for years: Groundhog day anyone?
..........................................................
Sky Views: Have you got Brexit deja vu? Get used to it
..........................................................
Ed Conway, Economics Editor
Perhaps it's fitting that our decision to break with our friends on the continent has left me with a distinct case of deja vu.
You've probably encountered it too: that feeling when you open the day's newspaper and every other story seems, well, familiar.
It might be about the Prime Minister, or the Chancellor, or another European leader, or a leading banker or businessman.
It will be written in an authoritative way, and it will say some combination of the following: "X is set on a hard Brexit/soft Brexit/red white and blue Brexit/leaving the single market/customs union/forging a new deal/seeking a transitional deal/heading for WTO arrangements."
Cont: http://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-have-you-got-brexit-deja-vu-get-used-to-it-10730721
..........................................................
Sky Views: Have you got Brexit deja vu? Get used to it
..........................................................
Ed Conway, Economics Editor
Perhaps it's fitting that our decision to break with our friends on the continent has left me with a distinct case of deja vu.
You've probably encountered it too: that feeling when you open the day's newspaper and every other story seems, well, familiar.
It might be about the Prime Minister, or the Chancellor, or another European leader, or a leading banker or businessman.
It will be written in an authoritative way, and it will say some combination of the following: "X is set on a hard Brexit/soft Brexit/red white and blue Brexit/leaving the single market/customs union/forging a new deal/seeking a transitional deal/heading for WTO arrangements."
Cont: http://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-have-you-got-brexit-deja-vu-get-used-to-it-10730721
danvilla2
I’m not an expert
Hammond threatening Europe with the U.K. becoming a tax haven today then, lowering coporation tax has been floated before and whilst I'm open to looking at the idea basic common sense suggests that the less the companies put in the public coffers the more Joe public has to contribute to balance the unbalanced books.
That then only builds up to a great Daily Mail Scandal on mega corporate profits whilst the people get poorer trying to battle inflation and personal tax
That then only builds up to a great Daily Mail Scandal on mega corporate profits whilst the people get poorer trying to battle inflation and personal tax
The Fear
A Wise Man (once sat next to him)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38641208
Thing is it should really have been common sense. You can't leave EU unless you leave the common market unless EU said we could keep that deal without the free movement of people.
They weren't going to do that. They actually could have and maybe should have because we are different as we aren't in the Eurozone anyway and we are a major player import and export wise in Europe.
One would imagine that most countries won't want to put up prohibitive trade rules v us as we would reciprocate.
Quite why it's taken so long for her to say the bleeding obvious is a strange one though.
Thing is it should really have been common sense. You can't leave EU unless you leave the common market unless EU said we could keep that deal without the free movement of people.
They weren't going to do that. They actually could have and maybe should have because we are different as we aren't in the Eurozone anyway and we are a major player import and export wise in Europe.
One would imagine that most countries won't want to put up prohibitive trade rules v us as we would reciprocate.
Quite why it's taken so long for her to say the bleeding obvious is a strange one though.
danvilla2
I’m not an expert
In Mays defence for all that I doubt her as being able to lead this without her being a stubborn cow and having mixed up priorities, she is just setting a negotiating stance with the threat of Hard Brexit, however the currency markets reacted positively to today - whether that's down to the parliament vote or around the aspect of some involvement in the EU that we choose, I don't know. If I'm negotiating with customers I'd do the same and I assume it's the same with politics.
It will be a turbulent 5 years or even a decade, however if we can agree to be a part of the customs union (even if it involves a fee) I think that would be a good result for all sides of the remain/leave campaign.
It's interesting for me, a lot of the EU threats come from the Eastern European nations or less influential ones such as Poland or Spain, however we all know the French, Italians and especially the Germans will not want tariffs between the UK and the continent.
It will be a turbulent 5 years or even a decade, however if we can agree to be a part of the customs union (even if it involves a fee) I think that would be a good result for all sides of the remain/leave campaign.
It's interesting for me, a lot of the EU threats come from the Eastern European nations or less influential ones such as Poland or Spain, however we all know the French, Italians and especially the Germans will not want tariffs between the UK and the continent.
The Fear
A Wise Man (once sat next to him)
I'm not sure they are going to try to remain in the customs union personally, I think they are going to want full freedom to do their own deals.
Maybe the way things have been so ponderous and seemingly amateur have helped strangely because now she looks to be trying to give clear direction and be more specific, there are no real shocks and the markets might be more accepting?
As you say, it could be turbulent, however every other prediction thus far have been wrong (apart from the crash in the pound) so who knows!?
Maybe the way things have been so ponderous and seemingly amateur have helped strangely because now she looks to be trying to give clear direction and be more specific, there are no real shocks and the markets might be more accepting?
As you say, it could be turbulent, however every other prediction thus far have been wrong (apart from the crash in the pound) so who knows!?
BodyButter
Vital Football Legend
The Joker in the pack here is that both France and Italy have elections coming up soon-ish. France this year and Italy in 2018. If Le Pen wins in France, she'll want to withdraw France from the EU and the same will happen in Italy if the 5 Star Movement win there. Without France or Italy, there is no EU.
BodyButter
Vital Football Legend
The Dutch have an election in March and the current leader in the polls is Wilders who has promised to leave the Euro and the EU.
It seems to me that the EU is over one way or another.
It might not survive 2017. If that's the case, Mrs May is wasting her time on these Brexit negotiations.
It seems to me that the EU is over one way or another.
It might not survive 2017. If that's the case, Mrs May is wasting her time on these Brexit negotiations.
