Pope John XXIII
Vital Football Legend
It's fair to say, this is a really important one. The disgraceful decision to even further warp the final table of the premier league by delaying announcing our (totally unjust) "punishment" only after we have played this game simply puts more emphasis on it.
I don't want to have to call it a must win, because I don't think we will win it. It's a season defining game; like when we went to Southampton and won last year, a game you look back on and say "that's where we stayed up". Just as Luton at home is the game you look back on and say "that's where Steve Cooper lost his job".
We are also on a run in which there has been a clearly wrong refereeing decision in, I believe, 6 of our last 11 matches; of which 5 have affected the outcome. We will have had our latest PGMOL apology letter this week. Will we get yet another one this Monday whilst also getting a point deduction that conveniently puts us below Luton?
The one key motivation; the media and fans up and down the country are going to absolutely lose their shit if we end today below Luton. They are this year's story (they'll soon find out how quickly that wears thin) and the whole country is rooting for us to go down instead of them. I love the idea of us standing tall, our quality showing through and brushing the game aside to take charge of the relegation battle. It's just so long since I saw it happen.
Luton Style
Luton are all about attacking rather than defending. Their defenders are absolutely shite but their form of defence is attack. They spend so much time getting the ball down the wings that their defenders are under less pressure.
41 goals- 9 more than us- speaks for itself.
They are also pretty clinical; their Xg is lower than their actual goals scored, so they are really making the most of their half chances (no surprise that our Xg is quite a bit higher than the actual number of goals we have scored).
Of course they are a long ball side in a fashion, as many lower PL sides are. But their attacking three is devastatingly effective. But their defenders are slow and really vulnerable to pace and skill. We need Nuno to actually pick his best side.
They have scored 12 goals from set pieces this season (to our 4), whilst we have conceded 18. They also have had four penalties so far to our one. We have to have been training all week on this, and we need to have the right personnel out there. Luton know this is a strength so they play the game, throwing themselves down in dangerous areas frequently. Referees are very friendly to them. We have to be smart and concentrate in our duels.
Luton Formation
Luton play 3 at the back- they have tried a 4-4-2 a couple of times but all their formations have been variations on 3-4-3 or 5-3-2, with the former being used 20 times. They certainly won't change for us.
Their defenders are shite but the fullbacks are incredibly dangerous and the whole team are brilliant at set pieces.
Luton Players
Barkley, Doughty, Chong and Morris are the big danger men, along with Kabore. We are fortunate to get the news that Adebayo is probably out for the season; that is massive. They have barely got a point since he was injured and his 9 goals half way through the season was outstanding.
In his absence, the line will be led by Carlton Morris, who has outscored our entire team bar Chris Wood already. He is more of a holding striker, really, really dangerous in the air and good at layoffs to the other two wing forwards. I think he must have been relegated with Barnsley and then scored 20 in their promotion season.
Next to him is the very dangerous Tahith Chong, who was their "big money" signing (inverted commas out of respect to Luton rather than mocking) of the summer from Birmingham I think. I really like this guy. He is more effective in MGW's role and is a sub as often as a starter, but every time I see him on the highlights reel he seems to be doing something devastating. He is great at set pieces and crossing
Another summer signings from Rotherham, Chiedoze Ogbene will play RF. I was really skeptical of this in the summer, and remember saying that if they were picking players up from just-survived Rotherham for the Premier League they were going to struggle. I was really wrong about that and after a few months Ogbene has really adapted well. 4 goals, brilliant in the air and at dribbling at defenders, he is less accomplished at crossing. But that doesn't matter because they have so many player who are.
I think somewhere in the mists of time we wanted to sign Andros Townsend, possibly on loan, but couldn't afford it? Does that ring a bell for anyone else? Burnley pulled out of a deal for him at the last minute, but he clearly got the better end of fate with Luton. He turns 33 this summer and is mostly a sub, but the quality of his crossing and set pieces (I think their first against us was him?) is outstanding and he has 3 assists.
Cauley Woodrow is another one they poached from Barnsley a season before. He didn't even have a great record in the championship, but scored his first premier league goal in the 127th minute against Palace. Not a great player but anyone can be devastating when the ball is in chaos around the box
Their wingbacks cause damage. We've heard loads about Alfie Doughty this season, who can play wingback on either side to almost equal effect. He doesn't score much (1 goal a season roughly) but he has an incredible 7 assists in the Premier League. It is constantly his crosses and set pieces that are finding heads in the box. Premier league passer and crosser- but probably championship at best at actual defending.
Issa Kabore will be on the RWB and is less impactful than Doughty, with just two assists. I always think he looks good when he plays though, and he has power and pace to make things happen.
In the middle is Ross Barkley who is having a twilight renaissance in his career. Always a quality player, he gradually lost his way at Chelsea (who doesn't?) but it thriving being the huge fish in a relatively little pond, much as we hoped Lingard would do for us. Four goals, 3 assists and consistently one of the best performing players in the whole Premier League. Think back to Charlie Adam for Blackpool and the damage he did to us; we have to be well prepared.
You'd be tempted to think that they play Ross Barkley and Ross Barkley in CM, but there is actually someone else there; usually Lakonga or Nakamba, who are injured, so currently Jordan Clarke- a 30 year old I can only find 4 years of history for. He's not even a DCM and I'm struggling to find much about him. Their lack of depth shows here.
In defence, Luton are vulnerable. Osho and Bell are decent championship defenders but are injured. Teden Mengi is very young (21), Reece Burke is not really PL quality and Daika Hashioka is a Japanese right back filling in at RCB.
These are weak players, no match for Awoniyi, Elanga or CHO. We need to take our chances and we need our midfield to not crumble. Their best chance is to overwhelm us with attacking so we aren't getting at their defence. That is what they will try and do.
Who are we complaining to PGMOL about this week?
This week it will be Darren England, who was the referee who failed to spot Ivan Toney moving the ball and foam, and couldn't organise his massive team to make sure at least one of them was watching the ball.
A referee who fundamentally failed to manage a set piece, in charge of our game against a side where set pieces are crucial? Great.
VAR is Andy Madley. He was the ref when we won at Pride Park in 2015. However, we have lost 10 of our 18 games he has refereed.
Luton form
Is awful thank goodness.
They had their little Renaissance at Christmas thanks to a very generous Newcastle and Brighton. But recently it has been straight defeats.
Weather
It will be typical springtime weather in Luton today. The sun is shining, the Brie is on ice and the champagne is at room temperature. Let's go.
And there we go; and entire match thread without the need to specifically call out or abuse any other poster. You've either got it or you don't.
I don't want to have to call it a must win, because I don't think we will win it. It's a season defining game; like when we went to Southampton and won last year, a game you look back on and say "that's where we stayed up". Just as Luton at home is the game you look back on and say "that's where Steve Cooper lost his job".
We are also on a run in which there has been a clearly wrong refereeing decision in, I believe, 6 of our last 11 matches; of which 5 have affected the outcome. We will have had our latest PGMOL apology letter this week. Will we get yet another one this Monday whilst also getting a point deduction that conveniently puts us below Luton?
The one key motivation; the media and fans up and down the country are going to absolutely lose their shit if we end today below Luton. They are this year's story (they'll soon find out how quickly that wears thin) and the whole country is rooting for us to go down instead of them. I love the idea of us standing tall, our quality showing through and brushing the game aside to take charge of the relegation battle. It's just so long since I saw it happen.
Luton Style
Luton are all about attacking rather than defending. Their defenders are absolutely shite but their form of defence is attack. They spend so much time getting the ball down the wings that their defenders are under less pressure.
41 goals- 9 more than us- speaks for itself.
They are also pretty clinical; their Xg is lower than their actual goals scored, so they are really making the most of their half chances (no surprise that our Xg is quite a bit higher than the actual number of goals we have scored).
Of course they are a long ball side in a fashion, as many lower PL sides are. But their attacking three is devastatingly effective. But their defenders are slow and really vulnerable to pace and skill. We need Nuno to actually pick his best side.
They have scored 12 goals from set pieces this season (to our 4), whilst we have conceded 18. They also have had four penalties so far to our one. We have to have been training all week on this, and we need to have the right personnel out there. Luton know this is a strength so they play the game, throwing themselves down in dangerous areas frequently. Referees are very friendly to them. We have to be smart and concentrate in our duels.
Luton Formation
Luton play 3 at the back- they have tried a 4-4-2 a couple of times but all their formations have been variations on 3-4-3 or 5-3-2, with the former being used 20 times. They certainly won't change for us.
Their defenders are shite but the fullbacks are incredibly dangerous and the whole team are brilliant at set pieces.
Luton Players
Barkley, Doughty, Chong and Morris are the big danger men, along with Kabore. We are fortunate to get the news that Adebayo is probably out for the season; that is massive. They have barely got a point since he was injured and his 9 goals half way through the season was outstanding.
In his absence, the line will be led by Carlton Morris, who has outscored our entire team bar Chris Wood already. He is more of a holding striker, really, really dangerous in the air and good at layoffs to the other two wing forwards. I think he must have been relegated with Barnsley and then scored 20 in their promotion season.
Next to him is the very dangerous Tahith Chong, who was their "big money" signing (inverted commas out of respect to Luton rather than mocking) of the summer from Birmingham I think. I really like this guy. He is more effective in MGW's role and is a sub as often as a starter, but every time I see him on the highlights reel he seems to be doing something devastating. He is great at set pieces and crossing
Another summer signings from Rotherham, Chiedoze Ogbene will play RF. I was really skeptical of this in the summer, and remember saying that if they were picking players up from just-survived Rotherham for the Premier League they were going to struggle. I was really wrong about that and after a few months Ogbene has really adapted well. 4 goals, brilliant in the air and at dribbling at defenders, he is less accomplished at crossing. But that doesn't matter because they have so many player who are.
I think somewhere in the mists of time we wanted to sign Andros Townsend, possibly on loan, but couldn't afford it? Does that ring a bell for anyone else? Burnley pulled out of a deal for him at the last minute, but he clearly got the better end of fate with Luton. He turns 33 this summer and is mostly a sub, but the quality of his crossing and set pieces (I think their first against us was him?) is outstanding and he has 3 assists.
Cauley Woodrow is another one they poached from Barnsley a season before. He didn't even have a great record in the championship, but scored his first premier league goal in the 127th minute against Palace. Not a great player but anyone can be devastating when the ball is in chaos around the box
Their wingbacks cause damage. We've heard loads about Alfie Doughty this season, who can play wingback on either side to almost equal effect. He doesn't score much (1 goal a season roughly) but he has an incredible 7 assists in the Premier League. It is constantly his crosses and set pieces that are finding heads in the box. Premier league passer and crosser- but probably championship at best at actual defending.
Issa Kabore will be on the RWB and is less impactful than Doughty, with just two assists. I always think he looks good when he plays though, and he has power and pace to make things happen.
In the middle is Ross Barkley who is having a twilight renaissance in his career. Always a quality player, he gradually lost his way at Chelsea (who doesn't?) but it thriving being the huge fish in a relatively little pond, much as we hoped Lingard would do for us. Four goals, 3 assists and consistently one of the best performing players in the whole Premier League. Think back to Charlie Adam for Blackpool and the damage he did to us; we have to be well prepared.
You'd be tempted to think that they play Ross Barkley and Ross Barkley in CM, but there is actually someone else there; usually Lakonga or Nakamba, who are injured, so currently Jordan Clarke- a 30 year old I can only find 4 years of history for. He's not even a DCM and I'm struggling to find much about him. Their lack of depth shows here.
In defence, Luton are vulnerable. Osho and Bell are decent championship defenders but are injured. Teden Mengi is very young (21), Reece Burke is not really PL quality and Daika Hashioka is a Japanese right back filling in at RCB.
These are weak players, no match for Awoniyi, Elanga or CHO. We need to take our chances and we need our midfield to not crumble. Their best chance is to overwhelm us with attacking so we aren't getting at their defence. That is what they will try and do.
Who are we complaining to PGMOL about this week?
This week it will be Darren England, who was the referee who failed to spot Ivan Toney moving the ball and foam, and couldn't organise his massive team to make sure at least one of them was watching the ball.
A referee who fundamentally failed to manage a set piece, in charge of our game against a side where set pieces are crucial? Great.
VAR is Andy Madley. He was the ref when we won at Pride Park in 2015. However, we have lost 10 of our 18 games he has refereed.
Luton form
Is awful thank goodness.
They had their little Renaissance at Christmas thanks to a very generous Newcastle and Brighton. But recently it has been straight defeats.
Weather
It will be typical springtime weather in Luton today. The sun is shining, the Brie is on ice and the champagne is at room temperature. Let's go.
And there we go; and entire match thread without the need to specifically call out or abuse any other poster. You've either got it or you don't.
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