How do they have any idea at all at this stage? Is anyone really foolish enough to place a bet when there are so many unanswered questions? All people seem to have done is ranked the clubs in terms of their size, which is far less reliable than it ever has been, or in terms of where they finished last season, which is not reliable either within the current context.
I am compiling the Season Preview, which involves a lot of daily research into player movements, squad ages and fitness, financial information, the managers, the potential impact of the salary cap, the potential impact of the intense schedule of games, off-field developments and more. The variables involved mean that this season is going to be very different to any season we have ever seen; that means there will be lots of surprises along the way and in the shape of the final table. It is far more problematic to determine where any club is likely to finish than it ever has been, and it certainly cannot be done right now.
A few thoughts based upon comments in the posts above:
* Charlton should be fine, assuming their ownership issues are finalised, and have made two very good signings to date.
* Bristol Rovers have cleared the majority of their debts, are building a new training ground, and have signed some very good League One players so far.
* Wigan is a disaster area: the administrators are selling off their good players to reduce a theoretical debt of £45.7 million in an attempt to find a buyer: they have until 31 August to get the contract signed, which gives the new owners less than a week to find players before the season starts; the transfer window remains open until 16 October, but will they have any money at all to spend on players? Think Portsmouth and Bolton again.
* Doncaster have been losing large sums of money every year and will have to reduce their player budget drastically; losses for the last three years amount to £2.14 million, £2.79 million and £1.85 million. They do not need to pay that money back and no interest is charged, but they will have to rein in their spending significantly. They have signed one player so far, and he will not be a regular.
A few more snippets:
* AFC Wimbledon are facing a financial nightmare with a new stadium they cannot afford; has anyone seen that complicated debenture scheme?
* Blackpool have signed well, but have a rookie manager - can he convert success at U23 level into success in the EFL?
* Burton have a rookie player-manager to cut costs and have signed some ageing players.
* Hull may do better than most people believe.
* Fleetwood are £15 million in debt (to Andy Pilley), lost £5.95 million in the last financial year, and clearly cannot sustain that spending within the new rules.
* Gillingham and Plymouth have signed a right bunch of donkeys.
* Ipswich have been badly affected by Covid and now by the salary cap - their transfer activity so far has been limited to a 17-year-old from Bury Town. Could have an outside chance if they change their manager.
* Swindon have legal problems with ownership and are being investigated by the FA over an alleged £800,000 investment by Gareth Barry in 2013.
Much of this could change radically over the next few weeks. With that extended date for the transfer window (still two months to go), what signings will clubs make between now and then? Will they be able to afford to do so? Will Charlton finally satisfy the EFL regarding its directors? Will Wigan be saved, and what kind of budget will they have if so? Will Swindon be hit by a points penalty for breaching ownership rules?
Good luck with your Where Will They Finish? entry!
