Can we make the play offs? | Page 2 | Vital Football

Can we make the play offs?

Sincilbanks said:
Agreed, and here is the major obstacle..
If Stevenage win their game in hand we are 14 points adrift of 6th place, with five other teams to overtake.
We need to perform considerably better than all the other 5 teams above us. When you are fighting relegation a small rise in form is significant because the chances are the teams above you are also losing games. When you are challenging for promotion the chances that 5 teams above you will suddenly fall out of form and none of them will go on a run, given those teams are in the top half largely because of their consistent performance over the course of the season, is incredibly unlikely...
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.....except The Pish, of course!

We currently sit in 10th spot and if we finish there or higher, I'd be happy. I think it's been said by Clive and others that we have a long term plan to reach the Championship but in a sustainable manner and that seems sensible to me. I'd rather take a wee bit longer to get there but have a chance of staying there, than rush at it and bounce straight back
 
I think we'll finish no lower than 13th and no higher than 8th and our current position of 10th would be very acceptable considering the mire we could of been now facing if we had left the previous coach in charge.

Injuries, formation, tactics and style of play were only heading us in one direction.

The Board made the correct decision in dispensing with Kennedy. He had failed to deliver in what he had promised. Unlucky in some quarters with injuries but just not good enough in the way the team played.

The board knew that we would have players coming back from injury and loans and also the January transfer window opening up and didn't trust him still to deliver. They knew that a new coach with fresh ideas and some returning and new players offered us more of a chance to stabilise ourselves where we were instead of possibly spiralling backwards quickly into the bottom half and possibly towards a relegation battle.

So no, we won't make the playoffs but we are building a new style with a new coach. We look much more of a balanced competetive football team than we did in November and we can use the rest of the season to build more of an identity on how the coach wants the team to play and also be identifying areas we need to strengthen for next season that might turn us into a team that can challenge or get into the playoff positions.
 
cherryexile said:
I had the same reaction to boredom, although my analysis was based on a slightly different premise, and posted this elsewhere before Saturday, but the win doesn't change my opinion,

I really can't see us reaching the play-off places, or ever looking likely to this season.

If Stevenage win their game in hand we are 14 points adrift of 6th place, with five other teams to overtake. Our current form is OK, 9 points from 5 games, but not good enough to overhaul the gap. In the last 5 games we have made up 5 points on Peterborough, 4 points on Blackpool, 3 points on Oxford, 2 points on Stevenage, nothing on Bristol Rovers and lost a point to Leyton Orient.

With 14 games left, if we keep that up it looks like 14 points on Peterborough, 12 points on Blackpool, 9 points on Oxford, 6 points on Stevenage, nothing on Bristol Rovers and lost 3 points to Leyton Orient. That would leave us 9 points less than Leyton Orient, 8 points short of Stevenage, 4 points adrift of Oxford, a point off Peterborough and Bristol Rovers and 7 points clear of Blackpool. In other words a single place improvement, to 10th, in a pack of 3 never looking close to 6th and 7th.

To make up the gap we would need an extra 3 points every 5 games, or 12 points, that is 4 wins out of five for the rest of the season. Only Portsmouth have that sort of record over the last 5 games. Do we really look like we have turned that sort of corner, to become the best team in the League? It also presumes that the other clubs don't improve on what they are currently doing and Stevenage and Peterborough don't have to improve much to be out of reach (only 3 of the bottom 5 have a worse record than Posh over the last 5 games).
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I’m agreeing we won’t but as we’ve got 11 points from 5 rather than 9 maybe need to redo the maths !
 
No we will not get in to the play offs this season and i dont want us to IF we do well in the next window and get what we want i honestly think we can do the top 5 next season UTI
 
Doubt it, but I don't see "we'd get battered and come back down" as a reason to not hope. We'd almost certainly get battered and come down the first time we go up anyway regardless of how strong we are; far bigger clubs than us have done so and we're a long way off being stronger than Rotherham who have dropped out the championship surely about 500 times now. The result of our mythical first season in the championship doesn't matter, we'd make enough money from one season in that division to sustain us as a growing club for a long time.
 
I don't think we will make the play offs. It would take an incredible and while not impossible it is highly unlikely.

However I would take scraping into the playoffs and getting into the Championship any day of the week over building a team and strengthening and getting into a good position that people go on about..

All this we wouldn't be ready if we did, build a team blah blah is utter tosh. Nobody can predict what will happen the following season so you should always grab it when you have the chance. Injuries (as we well know), bad luck etc all can take there toll so all this building malarkey while nice and I hope we can is no guarantee. Look at what has happened since we lost the playoff final to Blackpool. Nowhere near so take a chance when it presents itself.

So for me if we did the unthinkable and scraped into the playoffs by some form of luck and amazing run then by sheer luck rode our way via own goals and lucky deflections to win the playoffs despite being comprehensively outplayed to The Championship I would take that any day. Why because it might never come round again.
 
i remember one of the American investors saying last season... that for 23-24 it would be nice to see us threatening the play off positions (or words to that effect).

i would say an incremental improvement on last season would be taking the mathematical possibility of making the playoffs closer to the end of the season by a few games.

small steps.

to make the play offs with our current set up, we need a season with a very settled team, (i.e low level of injuries to key players) and a season where 2 or three players really break through to being consistent 'match winners'. every season we build a little, we better our chances of that.
 
Can't see it happening this season. Don't even think about it.

I'm very happy with where we are considering injuries, head coach change and where we were just after New Year.
 
The latest episode of the Stacey West podcast has an interesting calculation regarding the points we will accrue etc - pure pie but quite entertaining
 
Would not want us to reach the play offs to be honest as it is a year to early for me, we need two or three decent additions to the squad for next season and we can then have a real go at top 6.
 
CWaddle said:
Doubt it, but I don't see "we'd get battered and come back down" as a reason to not hope. We'd almost certainly get battered and come down the first time we go up anyway regardless of how strong we are; far bigger clubs than us have done so and we're a long way off being stronger than Rotherham who have dropped out the championship surely about 500 times now. The result of our mythical first season in the championship doesn't matter, we'd make enough money from one season in that division to sustain us as a growing club for a long time.
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Wycombe enjoyed their season in the sun in 2021-2 after their lucky break in getting in the play-offs.
They were bankers to get relegated but took it to the last game of the season, beating Middlesborough 3-0 and finished in 21st place, one point behind 'Wayne Rooney's Derby'. This was after not picking up a point in the first eight games.
We won't make the play offs this season, but I don't think fear of immediate relegation should be something to worry about, if we ever get one game away from the Championship any time soon.
Obviously consolidafion would be great, but that's still dreamland.
 
I’m about the only one it appears who thinks we might make the playoffs. Or at least it may come down to the last weekend to see if we get that last playoff spot. It will depend on other clubs having a bad run, but stringing together 4 or 5 wins can make a huge difference.

Stranger things have happened. And it’s a poor league this year apart from about three teams.

I would then be quite happy for us to lose in the playoffs and make a serious challenge for an automatic spot next season.
 
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CWaddle said:
Doubt it, but I don't see "we'd get battered and come back down" as a reason to not hope. We'd almost certainly get battered and come down the first time we go up anyway regardless of how strong we are; far bigger clubs than us have done so and we're a long way off being stronger than Rotherham who have dropped out the championship surely about 500 times now. The result of our mythical first season in the championship doesn't matter, we'd make enough money from one season in that division to sustain us as a growing club for a long time.
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It would be a pure banter season of getting pumped everywhere and bringing a party atmosphere.
 
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