World Cup Permutations

alphabet_king

Vital 1st Team Regular
No i'm not talking about Kevin Keegan's hair. It's this time in every world cup that we start to look at who we might get/want to get in the next round.

Now some will not be interested in working out permutations. They'll say "it doesn't matter who you play, if you want to win it you have to beat the best at some point" - i'd say back to that i really don't think we're in with a chance with winning it. Of course anything could happen, but I am more interested in trying to progress as far as as possible if I am honest. If we could get past the quarters it would equal the best we'd done in 28 years! Any semi final appearance would put to bed the 'always go out in the quarters' chat that we always get. Sorry but the history books don't really remember who you went out against either. How far we got will be repeated for years on years, so for me that's what's important now.

A favourable draw in the 2nd round and quarters could be vital to this - something we always seem to miss out on (although admittedly it didn't do us much good vs Iceland 2 years ago).

Of course by the point of the knockout, no one's an easy win, and we need to be careful not to get carried away with a couple of wins against poor teams either. We always have the potential for another 'Iceland', but I would prefer to play a lesser team who may be playing well, than have to blindly hope one of the big guns has an off day. Even on an off day they can beat you. Looking at it though, there's actually a chance there could be a fairly 'favourable' draw to the Semi's.

To me the most likely and actually most favourable option at the moment after today's results is that we end up playing Columbia in the next round and then we play Mexico in the quarters. All very very winnable on paper which if we did the unthinkable, this would actually take us to the semi's!

This would require us to come 2nd in our group - so lose against Belgium (we can do that, right?), and then for Mexico and Columbia to win theirs. All very possible after today's results.

If Germany somehow won that group though (with a big win and Mexico losing), then we'd be in line to get them in the quarters, so that would suck.

Win our group and we'd most likely end up with Japan then Brazil in the quarters (so out at the quarters again then!).

Desperately hoping then that the first permutation is the one that happens. Would love to remember us getting to the semi's and being in a position to dare to dream.

The good thing is that we are the last of the group games to play. We'd actually know all of the results before we play. So we'll actually know what result will be 'more favourable'. It'll be weird if ourselves and Belgium are desperately trying to lose the match to try to end up in the potentially easier half of the draw.

Of course this will all go to pot. We'll almost definitely end up vs Germany or Brazil in the quarters, or even screwing up against Japan or Columbia in the next round.
 
Favourable to play Columbia in the last 16?!

Really, surely you can't have seen them destroy Poland tonight. England playing Japan or Senegal are much better options. Columbia are the one team in that group I would fear us coming up against.

Obviously agree re Mexico in the quarters as favourable over Brazil.


I did watch columbia. My reference to Columbia was not that i thought they werent as good as senegal or japan, but that it is in my opinion mkre likely they would be the winners of that group. I suspect the only way we'll be playing Japan or Senegal is if we win our group and end up in the other half of the draw...and as i mentioned, that leaves us likely vs Germany or Brazil in the quarters so not the preference for me.

Cameroon and Mexico much more beatable on paper. But then I suppose Germany thought Mexico were beatable too.

I'd take any of Japan, Senegal or Columbia as the winners of their group to stay in that half of the draw if possible i think.
 
If I were the German or Brazilian manager, I'd be looking to see what I needed to do to avoid playing England in the QFs :whist:. I see no reason why we should fear coming up against them, other than their reputation.

I'd be very disappointed if Southgate started playing silly buggers and trying to avoid finishing top. I don't think we should be going all out to finish top, I'd expect a few players to be given a rest, but nor do I think we should specifically be looking to finish 2nd. It's a massive lack of respect to the potential future opposition (I'd imagine it'd make their manager's team-talk ahead of a potential QF a lot easier - "England think you boys are the easy option"), and you run the risk of being left looking pretty foolish if you still end up getting knocked out by the supposedly easier opponents.

There's also the potential effect on morale of deliberately putting an end to a winning run. Play to win against Belgium, I say, and if that means a potential quarter final v Germany or Brazil, bring 'em on.
 
After today’s game, a draw v Belgium sees them top and us 2nd doesn’t it? And I reckon that game has draw written all over it either way. Means not a lot to either side except maybe confidence on our part.

Similar to the group that Australia are in. They are hoping to beat Peru and that France beat Denmark. Both possible, but I suspect the France Denmark game will be a draw as that also suits both. Reckon it will be curtains for their football team as well as their cricket team. Pity, cos I would like to see them progress. Keeps the local media interested as well.
 
After today’s game, a draw v Belgium sees them top and us 2nd doesn’t it?

No, at the moment we're exactly level, points, GD, goals scored. The next criterion is fair play. At the moment we've got 2 yellows, Belgium 3, so we're above them on that basis. If we draw against them, obviously GD and goals scored would still be level, in which case as long as we don't get more yellow (or red) cards than them, we'd stay above them.
 
No, at the moment we're exactly level, points, GD, goals scored. The next criterion is fair play. At the moment we've got 2 yellows, Belgium 3, so we're above them on that basis. If we draw against them, obviously GD and goals scored would still be level, in which case as long as we don't get more yellow (or red) cards than them, we'd stay above them.

Wow! So if we want to finish 2nd and are drawing late on, we need to concede or get a red card?

It’s nice having the options :loser:

In fact, can you imagine the last 10 mins, it’s 1-1 but both teams would like to finish 2nd. Cue 10 mins of mayhem and a total of 16 bookings. :lol:
 
Wow! So if we want to finish 2nd and are drawing late on, we need to concede or get a red card?

It’s nice having the options :loser:

In fact, can you imagine the last 10 mins, it’s 1-1 but both teams would like to finish 2nd. Cue 10 mins of mayhem and a total of 16 bookings. :lol:
Or even a yellow card could be enough, if it makes us have one more than them overall. Quite easy to pick up a deliberate booking and has been done many times in the past so players are banned for dead rubber matches etc
 
Supposedly the likes of Bob Paisley never talked about the opposition, let alone had game plans for them.

Jordan Henderson has been the sole "holding" midfielder in the first two games so it will be interesting to see whether Southgate brings in Dier against Belgium as that will indicate that he is trying to stop someone like DeBruyne.

That type of thinking has got us nowhere in the past. DeBruyne can not do anything if we are in their half running rings round their defence (which Tunisia punctured twice having hardly threatened us).

Let's have a go and let them worry about us. After all, Wales beat them at the Euros.

Also, the Iceland experience should have taught us going forward that there are no easy games and we often play better against the better teams so, win or lose, I hope we just try to excite like the one day cricket team.
 
I think England should play for 1st or 2nd dependant on a more favourable draw.

I think most teams think this way.
 
I've had a look at the permutations.

IF all the teams ended up in the same position as they are now (apart from us) England would be better of finishing second.
 
There's also the potential effect on morale of deliberately putting an end to a winning run. Play to win against Belgium, I say, and if that means a potential quarter final v Germany or Brazil, bring 'em on.

I actually think the converse is true. I don't think it will impact morale much to lose a game we basically let them win. Why would you care about losing a game you dontvwant to win? You also act like we'll be sure to win if we put out a strong team. Even a full strength England wil be odds on to get beat. I think it would impact morale much more if we a played a strongish team and got beaten.

I can see your point about the opposition mangers team talk. But all Southgate needs to do is publicly refuse to admit they are looking for the easier draw and claim resting the players is all about rest and making sure they are at full strength whoever they play.
 
I actually think the converse is true. I don't think it will impact morale much to lose a game we basically let them win. Why would you care about losing a game you dontvwant to win? You also act like we'll be sure to win if we put out a strong team. Even a full strength England wil be odds on to get beat. I think it would impact morale much more if we a played a strongish team and got beaten.

I can see your point about the opposition mangers team talk. But all Southgate needs to do is publicly refuse to admit they are looking for the easier draw and claim resting the players is all about rest and making sure they are at full strength whoever they play.

Firstly I can’t see us being odds on to lose to Belgium who are currently 17/10 to win the game.

Secondly, once momentum starts building it would be foolish to stop the train and start again. We need to build on the performance against Panama and make a few improvements. Once you start over-complicating things in the minds of the squad you’re asking for trouble.
 
Wow! So if we want to finish 2nd and are drawing late on, we need to concede or get a red card?

It’s nice having the options :loser:

In fact, can you imagine the last 10 mins, it’s 1-1 but both teams would like to finish 2nd. Cue 10 mins of mayhem and a total of 16 bookings. :lol:

That has happened before in a game in China - a team spent the last few minutes attacking their own goal trying to score an own goal, with the other team trying to stop them
 
Seeing as Lukaku and Hazard are unlikely to play and Martinez may well rest De Bruyne, I'd hope Southgate rests Lindgaard after the treatment he got from Panama it's looking like it could either be a bore draw or two sets of squad players going for it to try and muscle their way into the first team. As to the "best" route, who cares. There hasn't been a team other than Russia or Belgium who have impressed as much as us over two games (although Colombia's first was hard to judge as they had 10 men for 87 minutes) so we shouldn't fear anyone.
 
Seeing as Lukaku and Hazard are unlikely to play and Martinez may well rest De Bruyne, I'd hope Southgate rests Lindgaard after the treatment he got from Panama it's looking like it could either be a bore draw or two sets of squad players going for it to try and muscle their way into the first team. As to the "best" route, who cares. There hasn't been a team other than Russia or Belgium who have impressed as much as us over two games (although Colombia's first was hard to judge as they had 10 men for 87 minutes) so we shouldn't fear anyone.
Agreed, rest injured or obviously exhausted players but I'd stick as close to the current 11 as I can, why change a winning team only to change back again after the Belgium match? All that will do is lose momentum. I would love to see us try to win the match, finish top and push on to the next match.
I do understand Southgate's point about keeping players happy but they have to understand there will always be a "starting XI" and that the squad is there for injuries or changes of system, a plan B if you like. Bet they'll be happy if they never got a match but came back with a winner's medal.
 
Agreed, rest injured or obviously exhausted players but I'd stick as close to the current 11 as I can, why change a winning team only to change back again after the Belgium match? All that will do is lose momentum. I would love to see us try to win the match, finish top and push on to the next match.

What if we play our first XI and lose? That will lose momentum
 
What if we play our first XI and lose? That will lose momentum

Exactly.

Think the physiological benefit of resting a player rather than making him play his 2rd game in 11 days is much more than any perceived loss of morale from losing a game they are told by the manger is not important and that they know if they lose they could actually end up in a better position than winning. Sorry but id put a completely different 11 in, if allowed. It won't affect their morale or momentum if they don't even play in the game.
 
Exactly.

Think the physiological benefit of resting a player rather than making him play his 2rd game in 11 days is much more than any perceived loss of morale from losing a game they are told by the manger is not important and that they know if they lose they could actually end up in a better position than winning. Sorry but id put a completely different 11 in, if allowed. It won't affect their morale or momentum if they don't even play in the game.

For the record, I've just realised I'm going to a mates wedding on what would be the date of the quarter final should we come 2nd in our group and get through the 2nd round. Ouch. This changes my whole outlook.
 
You also act like we'll be sure to win if we put out a strong team.

And you're going on like we're sure to lose if we put out a weakened team.

Maybe morale wasn't the right way of looking at it, but as others have said, there's a lot to be said for momentum at tournaments like this. If we put out a strong-ish side and lose anyway, so be it, we'll have to deal with that. But I can't see what we have to gain by deliberately stalling our own momentum by making a whole load of changes.

I fully expect Southgate to make a few changes, if there are any players in need of a rest, that's what the squad is there for. But whatever side we send out, I'd expect them to be playing to at the very least avoid defeat, not faffing around doing all they can to finish 2nd rather than top.