We are already safe | Vital Football

We are already safe

W

Wansalarf

Vital Squad Member
People keep on about xxpts more points for staying up, but we are already safe.
These are the bottom 6 clubs. I defy you, from their fixtures, however their results turn out, to show that four of them can overtake us.

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Wansalarf said:
People keep on about xxpts more points for staying up, but we are already safe.
These are the bottom 6 clubs. I defy you, from their fixtures, however their results turn out, to show that four of them can overtake us.

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Were you at the Wycombe game a few years ago? My family had a big day out in the area and then the match ready to celebrate staying up. The odds were stacked in our favour.
 
Gills 58 said:
Were you at the Wycombe game a few years ago? My family had a big day out in the area and then the match ready to celebrate staying up. The odds were stacked in our favour.
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Don't remind me. The odds of us actually going down were ludicrous but we all know that it can happen. Broke my lads heart that day. He didn't really understand why the players didn't seem to care in such a key game. Tough one to explain to a 8 or 9 year old. Long journey home that.
 
The only danger realistically is the 21st place - I agree that 3 teams are unlikely to overtake us and Bradford City are all but doomed. The last spot trap door is still open but 51 points should be enough.
 
Following the Gills for a long enough time can mess with reality and probability in an inexplicable way.
I witnessed us get relegated twice when it seemed almost impossible. I went to Wrexham in fancy dress as it was pretty certain we would get automatic promotion.
As it happens, I think you are correct but just wanted to let you know that you have set off my 'end of season' nervous tick. Cheers!
 
I've gone through three options there. If Gills lose every match and every single other match goes against us we go down. If we lose every match and the other games go more or less to form we stay up. If we get another couple of points we stay up whatever happens.

I'm fairly confident we'll be OK. Having said that, I did exactly the same thing, with exactly the same results, in the weeks before we got relegated at Wycombe.
 
If there's a way for Gills to bugger it up they'll find it. That's been my experience over the years. Though I'm in my optimistic phase ( I know should know better!) and fully expect Gills to end up 12th.
 
Well, I’ve been pretty confident for a month or so that we are basically safe.

Until someone posted a thread titled “We are already safe”.

FFS!! We are doomed now. What was the op thinking?
 
Its out of GFC's hands, we're safe! If you assume we lose all our games, there are not four teams that can overtake us because they are all taking points off each other to do that - its something called mathematics!
 
Wansalarf said:
Its out of GFC's hands, we're safe! If you assume we lose all our games, there are not four teams that can overtake us because they are all taking points off each other to do that - its something called mathematics!
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Only 3 of those bottom 6 need to overtake us, don't they? As it stands, Wycombe, Southend and Wimbledon (plus the teams above them up to Shrewsbury in 14th) overtaking us would send us down in 21st. Doing some quick maths those 3 can catch us just from their games against teams in the top half (as unlikely as it is they all start beating Sunderland and Luton, and that we don't get any more points).

I've not looked at the fixtures of those between 14th and 18th in the league. I'd like another win to be sure, but I reckon we'd stay up with 48. We're 25/1 to go down on skybet if anyone fancies hedging!
 
Even this weekend a lot of teams below us are playing each other. 3 points from the Shrewsbury game and we are mathematically uncatchable.
PS I did fail my maths O level.
 
SE1_Gills said:
I'd like to see Wimbledon get out of it, not at our expense though
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Would be good to see some of the more local teams survive at the expense of some of the northern teams, especially seeing as League 2's promotion candidates are for the most part not particularly local. Also likely to lose Luton and potentially Portsmouth and/or Charlton.

Bradford, Rochdale, Scunthorpe and Accrington to go down? And Rotherham to escape the Championship relegation zone at the expense of Millwall, QPR or Reading.
 
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