V Brighton

orbitalforest said:
I've been defending Jesus all season and i do think he's a very good player unlike some of the garbage we've signed but we do need to try Awoniyi for a change to stir things up , hopefully we get half a dozen games out of Wood too and he can hit the ground running. However the way we're playing i honestly think we'll probably struggle for goals no matter who leads the line.
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I can't believe there isn't somebody..anybody worth giving a go from our youth teams... even as a substitute
 
Kind of think Jesus is getting the blame for our whole team lack of creativity going forward now

Always has to be someone to blame. Its all over twitter too

He does treble the work of Taiwo

And we will need workrate to get out of this hole we are in

He can finish and has scored 12 in a shite team going forward overall

Give taiwo more minutes as a sub if needed
 
Thewolf/jimmygordon said:
Kind of think Jesus is getting the blame for our whole team lack of creativity going forward now

Always has to be someone to blame. Its all over twitter too

He does treble the work of Taiwo

And we will need workrate to get out of this hole we are in

He can finish and has scored 12 in a shite team going forward overall

Give taiwo more minutes as a sub if needed
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He is not being scapegoated, he can’t score in the EPL. He may be able to create and he may be able to play off another striker but on his own it just isn’t working.
 
Basha73 said:
He is not being scapegoated, he can’t score in the EPL. He may be able to create and he may be able to play off another striker but on his own it just isn’t working.
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Ive looked at his stats

His xg in premier League is just 4
Hes scored 2

Xg for Chris Wood last season was 14
He scored 20

Jesus finishing in all matches is 12 goals from 71 attempts which is 16.9% which is considered good

Average conversion rate for strikers is 12.5% approx

Wood was off the charts last season. Highest since recording these stats began in EPL back in 2003

(As of early May 2025, Wood boasted the highest goal conversion rate in the Premier League at 35.2% (19 goals from 54 attempts), which is the highest on record (since 2003-04) for a player with 50+ shots in a season)
 
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Thewolf/jimmygordon said:
Based on chances weve created hes 2 down on expected goals in EPL
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If you believe those stats they could easily mean he isn’t getting into the right positions. Even if you don’t believe those stats, just watching him and the positions he takes up shows that he isn’t likely to add to his tally.
 
Basha73 said:
If you believe those stats they could easily mean he isn’t getting into the right positions. Even if you don’t believe those stats, just watching him and the positions he takes up shows that he isn’t likely to add to his tally.
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Yet hes top scorer the Europa League with 7 goals. Conversion rate of 35 per cent. Chris Wood at his best finishing level.

His xg in Europa is only 4 goals

And if he was allowed to take penalties like Wood then he would have scored nearer to 20 goals this season rather than 12
 
Thewolf/jimmygordon said:
Yet hes top scorer the Europa League with 7 goals. Conversion rate of 35 per cent. Chris Wood at his best finishing level.

His xg in Europa is only 4 goals

And if he was allowed to take penalties like Wood then he would have scored nearer to 20 goals this season rather than 12
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Which reinforces the original point and the fact that he can’t score goals in the EPL. Our EPL status is at risk and something needs to change if we are going to survive. We need goals. Goals we aren’t currently scoring.
 
Basha73 said:
Which reinforces the original point and the fact that he can’t score goals in the EPL. Our EPL status is at risk and something needs to change if we are going to survive. We need goals. Goals we aren’t currently scoring.
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We cant score goals in EPL as a team

We dont create many chances. But as a team we dont convert the chances we do create.

Our xg for goals this season is just 32

Weve scored 26 so 6 below expected goals from chances

Jesus should have scored 4 not 2 based on chances hes had

Only wolves, spurs and surprisingly Sunderland are below us for xg per game

Based on xg for and against we should be 5 points better off now

Last season xg stats tell a very interesting story

This time last season our xg was 34 goals (just 2 more than this season)

However thanks to Chris Woods best in EPL history conversion rate we had actually scored 45 goals at this stage !! Totally outperforming what we should have expected

11 goals more than you would expect

This season same time 6 goals less

I guess we were spoilt or lucky or both
 
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In summary

This time last season expected goals scored was just 2 more than this season

Expected goals conceded is just 4 worse this season compared to last

Not a huge difference between the two seasons at this stage on xg

However at this stage last season we had scored an incredible 11 goals more than expected from our chances

And this season we have scored 7 goals less than expected from our chances

Thats a huge swing

At the back we also did well and conceded 3 less goals than we would have expected last season at this stage. . This season weve conceded 1 more than we should.

The over performance against chances last season put us in 3rd at this stage when we should have expected to be about 8th

Under performance against chances this season puts us 17th compared to 15th if we had taken 5 more points are chances suggest we should have taken

Worth saying if Wood had converted chances at the rate he did last season every season he would be the greatest finisher of all time in EPL

As it is last season he converted chances better than any EPL player since stats for it began in 2003.

No wonder weve missed him this season

He helped make what was really just a slightly above average team last season stats wise this time last season into top 3 at this stage with his clinical finishing

Looking back i think we kind of took the way Wood and others finished chances for granted last season
 
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Thewolf/jimmygordon said:
In summary

This time last season expected goals scored was just 2 more than this season

Expected goals conceded is just 4 worse this season compared to last

Not a huge difference between the two seasons at this stage on xg

However at this stage last season we had scored an incredible 11 goals more than expected from our chances

And this season we have scored 6 goals less than expected from our chances

Thats a huge swing

At the back we also did well and conceded 3 less goals than we would have expected last season at this stage. . This season weve conceded 1 more than we should.

The over performance against chances last season put us in 3rd at this stage when we should have expected to be about 8th

Under performance against chances this season puts us 17th compared to 15th if we had taken 5 more points are chances suggest we should have taken

Worth saying if Wood had converted chances at the rate he did last season every season he would be the greatest finisher of all time in EPL

As it is last season he converted chances better than any EPL player since stats for it began in 2003

No wonder weve missed him this season

He made what was really just a slightly above average team last season stats wise this time last season into top 3 at this stage with his clinical finishing

Looking back i think we kind of took his finishing for granted
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I’d be interested to know how many set piece goals we scored last season vs this season… it cannot be understated just how woeful our set pieces are, but also how many points it’s probably cost us. Most teams win a few games a season through a good set piece and my heart sinks when we get one.
 
Last season we were 4th in the league in converting expected goals into actual goals

This season we are rock bottom 20th below even Burnley and Wolves

Weve actually averaged one more attempt on goal per game this season (13) as last season (12)

And the chances are almost exactly the same quality with expected goals per game 1.18 this season and 1.22 last season

This season shite finishing last season exceptional finishing. Thats the major difference

But its not all down to Jesus as hes only 2 goals behind where he should be

We created no more quantity OR quality chances to score under Nuno last season than we have under 4 managers this season

Pretty much exactly the same

Forget about systems or patterns of play

The difference between 45 goals scored this time last season and 26 this sesson is purely down to finishing

Now do managers coach players how to finish or not?

Is it luck?

Or is it just down to missing Chris Wood Midas Touch?
 
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Will.NFFC said:
I’d be interested to know how many set piece goals we scored last season vs this season… it cannot be understated just how woeful our set pieces are, but also how many points it’s probably cost us. Most teams win a few games a season through a good set piece and my heart sinks when we get one.
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One thing i can tell you that relates to that is Milo scored 5 EPL goals last season

Zero this season
 
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