The Wembley Playoff Final Thread; Huddersfield Town Vs Nottingham Forest, sponsored by every loyal supporter of the 21st Century | Vital Football

The Wembley Playoff Final Thread; Huddersfield Town Vs Nottingham Forest, sponsored by every loyal supporter of the 21st Century

Pope John XXIII

Vital Football Legend
Here it goes....

Got to be honest, it didn't actually occur to me that I would be doing another thread after the last one. Not that I didn't have some confidence, but the concept of being in a Wembley playoff final is so alien to us all that my mind never actually wandered to the possibility.

It's awesome. What a night. I doubt many of us can remember a night that was so special when we had played that badly and lost the game on the night. We were as poor as we have seen us under Cooper at home; the nerves got to us, our defence failed at some of the basics and Blades stepped it up. When they got their first we all had that sinking feeling. When they got their second I didn't think for one minute we would get through. I never, ever for a moment believed we could win a high stakes penalty shootout.

Considering how shit we were, what a night.

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The absolute legend and hero

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Joy not seen at the City Ground since 2007. Not joy as in arrogance that we have already made it- no one would presume the result at Wembley- but that we had actually got to Wembley for the first time in 30 years
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This team, which has entertained us so much- to a degree not seen in years. Surely the best Forest team if the 21st century
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They are exhausted. I believe that, with this being our 55th competitive match of the season, we have probably played more games than any other club in our division (Huddersfield will be playing their 54th) and due to the games in hand, more of these have been bunched up than for Huddersfield.

They are knackered and this is their first decent rest in weeks. They need it. Thankfully, we have tended to come back from international breaks much stronger.

Huddersfield Style

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Huddersfield are a team that, statistically, are very similar to us in some ways. Bare in mind that the characteristics above are very much based on the last two games (ours have changed dramatically after Tuesday and they now make us look like a shit team). But the essentials are there.

They, like us, tend towards hitting on the counter. As we found out at the CG, once in the lead they are very hard to dislodge.

The most essential stats are that we score more and concede less over the season. Over 48 games they have 66 goals compared to our 76, and in the same period they have conceded 49 to our 43- not bad considering they had a 7 game headstart.

Looking at where their goals come from, you can see how prevalent set pieces are- pretty much 1/3 of their goals are from set pieces (our record is decent at 1/5) with only 53% of their goals coming from open play (compared to 63% for us) while counter attacking is also highly effective for them.

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One of their stand out features is their effectiveness at set pieces; they have the highest number of goals from set pieces in the division (21) and a ridiculous amount of these are made by Sorba Thomas, their wing back who has 12 assists this season. They scored in the FA Cup from a set piece- their posh corner- and we could see the unbelievable delivery from Thomas for their goal in the second leg. We have generally been great at defending set pieces but the defence as a whole has crumbled a bit recently and this has to be one of our biggest fears about them.


They are a clean team, with the second lowest number of cards in the league. However, don't be fooled by that at all- Luton's disciplinary record looks clean as well. Huddersfield are canny at the darker arts (as are we) and they will have watched that second leg carefully to see exactly how to stop us in the middle.

You can see they have a similar spread of goals to us, scoring slightly more of their goals at close range. However, it's important to note that we have scored more goals overall, so this is just proportions. Slightly more of our goals come from the 18 yard box, basically exactly like we scored against Sheffield.

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Huddersfield spend a bit more time in midfield than we do, meaning that is where they tend to pass it around. In contrast, the "have a breather" passing we tend to do is in defence, followed by a quick turnover and getting the ball forward quickly to the offensive area. We therefore tend to spend a bit more time in the opposition third than they do- in fact. They spend the least amount of time in the opposition third of anyone in the championship.
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In terms of passing etc, they are very similar to us. They play slightly fewer long balls per game (62 to our 65) and about 20 more short passes per match. We can expect them to put a couple more crosses in per match on average.

Possession is virtually identical between the teams, with us having fractionally more because over the season we aren't just a counter attacking side. Our passing accuracy is the same, and so is the aerial stats.

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Formation
Huddersfield are flexible, having tried seven different variations over the season, mostly based around 3 or 4 at the back. Against Luton they played a straight 5 man midfield, whereas it is more common for them to play wingbacks as we do. Toffolo and Sorba Thomas are extremely effective in these positions.
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I would guess we are going to see similar to this here, with the possible exception of Ward.

Players

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Huddersfield, as you would expect from a team finishing third at this level, have some outstanding players.

No one in our side can match Sorba Thomas's 12 assists (Brennan has 10). They have several players who have all played 40+ games and therefore a settled side. Danny Ward has a healthy number of goals and they have several players who have averaged over 7/10 per game. Having looked at this for plenty of clubs, Huddersfield are bloody good on the stats.

However, comparisons need to be made with only one club. For instance, while they have two players on very high numbers of assists (Thomas and Toffolo), there are very few coming from anywhere else. We have Garner on 8, Zinkernagel on 7, and Spence on 4 (Grabban also has 4, but that is largely irrelevant). Chance creation wise, we look like we have more players that can hurt them.

We also have loads of players on 40+ appearances. This will be McKenna's 48th game and Johnson's 47th. Nine of our players have made 40+ appearances, including from the bench- they have 7 in that category.

As for ratings, we have 7 players with an average rating over 7 (Yates and Worral are both a fraction below 7) compared to their three.

These stats may well mean nothing, especially over a game. But when looking for crumbs of comfort, it's helpful to know that we've been good this season and statistically, at least in some ways better than our opponents.

Players
It is interesting to see their market values; they have some pretty valuable players according to Transfermarkt, not especially out of line with our squad. Like ours, some of their most valuable players are on loan, as you can see with Colwill and Anjorin below. This also serves as a decent squad guide.

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Forwards

Danny Ward is their top scorer with 14 goals. As you can see, he is decent in the air and at finishing. Aged 30 and more of an attacking midfielder in an era where strikers, wingers and AMs kind of blend together, Ward is having his best goalscoring season ever

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*Injury claxon alert* - Ward was the one who stretched too far against Luton and was subbed. Huddersfield fans don't seem to worried, but there is little news out there so it's possible he could be out.

Daniel Sinani
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Plays for the mighty Luxembourg, he is a 25 year old attacking midfielder/ forward with 7 league goals and 3 assists. He performs far better from central midfield or the attacking left.

Duane Holmes- a former Ram, described by Whoscored as having "no significant strengths", Holmes has managed a career best 5 goals this season- one of them annoyingly against us. He's been deployed in just about every attacking position on the pitch, with left forward the most common. He hasn't scored since mid February.

Jordan Rhodes, now 32, is probably about 10 years from his championship heyday, when he delighted in scoring against is every bloody time. He has been a bit part player for ages now. Always a poacher, he has only started 6 times for them and made 17 sub appearances- hitting 4 goals and three assists, including the semi final winner.

Faustino Anjorin is the player their fans believe will be their secret weapon. He is 20 and on loan from Chelsea having spent the first half of the season at Lokomotiv Moscow. He has not started a game for them but has made 7 sub appearances, scoring one goal. They seem to think he is an outstanding game changer, and point to a game against Coventry where he came on and they couldn't cope with him. They believe that, because he has hardly played, Cooper and his team will be unable to prepare the side to deal with him, and he'll get a start or come on as a sub and our players will be scratching their heads for how to stop him.

Josh Koroma is yet another AM/FW who has played everywhere across attack. He specialises in scoring direct free kicks and long shots, hitting 4 goals so far.

Midfield

Huddersfield fans I have spoken to point to Lewis O'Brien as their key player overall, and confidently tell me that Garner will struggle to cope with him and be forced into fouls just short of yellow cards all game.
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He is a good player; starting 40 games from central midfield, he links play, beats players and is essential to their press. He chips in a bit with three goals and three assists too, but he is absolutely the one who makes their midfield tick. If we have another tough afternoon getting the ball through midfield, it will be O'Brien that is causing us problems.

Jonathan Hogg is their other key central midfielder. We know him as a nasty bastard from their nasty bastard days under those nasty bastards the Cowley brothers. A 33 year old with great passing and heading ability, he is a proper DCM and will be training with O'Brien all week on how to shut us down in midfield and keep the ball in our own defensive third. These are the two we have to get through. Hogg moved to central defence for the playoff game.

Harry Toffolo is possibly their best known player, their LWB. 6 goals, 7 assists and that's after a decent season last year too.
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Crucially, he is on absolutely red hot form- 5 of those 6 goals have come in the past 9 games. First half of the season his ratings were not particularly special, but he has really grown lately and is a massive threat for them at the moment.

Sorba Thomas is possibly the most dangerous player to us; a 23 year old Welsh player, he has played in 11 different positions so far this year (no, not goalkeeper).

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He has a ludicrous 12 assists, which is a result of his deadly crossing ability and his top quality set piece delivery. Both of which are likely to be our biggest Achilles heel. This is probably the player we need to shackle the most and we desperately need to avoid the needless fouls around our area.

On the plus side, statistically he can't defend for shit.

Jonathan Russell is a CM who started the last game, with High moving to central defence..he is a 21 year old youngster who is strong at passing and putting in throughballs.

Defence
They tend to run a three man defence. Levi Colwill is one of the highest rated players in their squad. On loan from Chelsea, he has been outstanding for half the season, scoring twice. He is a "bring the ball out of defence" player with good concentration and tackling ability.

Tom Lees is older (31) and is their best header of the ball in defence. He has played 42 goals. He can get caught out in his tackling though, which is why he and Colwill complement each other.

Oliver Turton, 29, is one option at centre half. He is another with good concentration. He played in the first semi final game but not the second.

Matty Pearson is their other defender, but has been injured since March. They have often played Hogg there since, or mixed it up with various players, for example Naby Sarr who is more of an "Av it!" Kind of defender.

One wonders how someoje like Hogg will manage a Keinan Davis run?

Lee Nichols is one of the best goalkeepers in the division. Only a few goalkeepers in the division have prevented more goals than Samba, and while Brice's goal prevention rate is fractionally higher, we need to recognise that they have a goalkeeper just as good as ours. But not remotely as big a hero.

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Form

Huddersfield have really come into their own in the second half of the season and towards of the end, where they have been a bit of a machine.
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However, form means very little for this game. In 2017 they went into the playoffs on dreadful form and went up.

Weather

It is apparently set to be a glorious day in London next Sunday.

Final analysis

They will be a horrible team for us to play. They will hit us with their posh corner and look for set piece opportunities everywhere. They will do a high press and seek to cut off the midfield. They will scythe Johnson down and put two on Spence. O'Brien will seek to run the show.

But it's such a bizarre game. At the end of the match, the teams will be in different divisions. To get into the premier league all we have to do is win one game against an evenly matched team on neutral ground with 36,000 forest fans there. That's mental.
 
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Udders Fan Comments

Nothing to fear after last nights showing but we equally need to be better than the performance we put on, backing Jordan to steer his home again, UTT

Just enjoy it. Another day at Wembley. We are lucky. Some clubs will go their entire history never competing in a play off final.
If we win, great, if we don’t, let’s build and go again next season.
Will be a great day. Great for the club to be at Wembley again. Great for the young kids too, great memories.

Never, ever, want to see Town lose, but Trees will be firm favourites and are arguably the better side. On the basis that I never want to see Town lose, it would not be the worst thing ever to avoid weekly beatings in Prem.

sadly I think they might just have too much for us. Hope we can win though. One thing is for sure is we will give it a go.
Worth going for the whole experience.

Forest aren't Liverpool, they're just an established championship side who have had a good season, we can win but will have to up our game from monday night, we can do that!

Last night showed Forest are not invincible and they wobbled under the pressure of expectation.

They will have magnificent support on the day and no doubt 5k at least more than us, but that could equally go against them if we can get a foothold in the game.

I just hope we play on the front foot in the final. Press them high. Support the striker and get runners forwards when attacking. Don’t set up like the first half vs Luton. Too slow, everything through Hogg, not enough movement.
If we do miss out let’s go down fighting and really going for it.
Let them keep the hype and believe they only have to turn up to get promoted. It often doesn’t work out like that.

We’ve been at our best all season when we’ve soaked up the opposition attacks, worked out where the gaps are and countered at pace. We’ve also done well later in games when the opposition tires. I think these tactics are probably our best chance of a result against a very dynamic Forest attack. Happy to trust Carlos, we need to be better than we were against Luton, but we have it in us to beat Forest.

Definitely feel like the players are learning how to read the opposition. It’s a pretty risky tactic when your ball retention and defensive discipline is as poor as it was on Monday night though. We need to be much less generous in giving them opportunities at Wembley

Serious question..
Will our players be forming a guard of honour for “the former kings of England “ before the game🤷🏻‍♂️
Personally I think once they score their eighth goal Carlos will throw the white towel ont pitch to save us from further embarrassment..
We can only hope to bask in their glory for a short period before the inevitable happens..

Really wanted it to be Sheff U before last night but having watched it I think Forest are better for us. Sheff U's midfield was strong and took over in the second half, that might have been a problem for us.
Forest not only tired but looked as though the expectation had really got to them. The space that Berge had is where Sorba will hopefully be operating, and they will find our set pieces a real nightmare. If we are level after an hour I think we are favourites.
Think of the outrage if the mighty Forest don't take their rightful place at the top table

To beat Forest we will need to be set up like we were away to Fulham and...Forest. Defending higher up the pitch and more aggressively than against Luton, with Hogg in midfield not pissing about at the back, and more threatening attacks that begin nearer the opposition goal.

If we play 3 at the back we'll get mullered..so Turton, Lees,Colwill,Toffolo..
And Hogg deep midfield...Will he start Sorba, can he do 90/120 mins ?
Rhodes or Ward?


Remember all the pressure is on Forest. This is a big day out for them lot - never been to new Wembley and never in top division this millennium. They’ll be like kids at Xmas.
Let them sell out and enjoy their big day out in the big city. It’s all old hat for us.
So let us concentrate on what we we do best. Stay under the radar and win play offs.😂😂😂

It is, seen town there three times if you include when we played Tottenham in the prem, its a whole new world for Florist fans.

My big concern is their right hand side. We have to make sure that Toffolo isn't left to manage on his own and nor is O'Brien permanently kept there. If we do play 3 at the back, I might be tempted to get Colwill to man-mark Johnson

So long as he's up to the pace from the start...looked a mile off against Luton

Johnson clearly has an ongoing back problem, best clatter him early and take one for the team?
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Think the first 60-70 minutes are absolutely crucial to our chances. Forest like to fly out of the traps, energetically pressing and trying to go at teams from the off, but from what I’ve seen lately look absolutely out on their feet around the hour mark. If we’re still in the game at that point I fancy us to win.

The media furore over Forest and the complete lack of expectation around us suits me right down to the ground. All the pressure is on them.

I read a lot about certain teams going into games with 'pressure', but i dont think theres much in it tbh, maybe it might affect some players but generally i dont think it has that much of an influence, hope it does on the 29th though.


Forest crap at set piece defending and we are pretty good at them
Also Samba... That boy has more than one mistake in him a game. He was outstanding last night no doubt but I have a feeling he will have a bit of a shocker against us. That back 4 in front of him are pretty average.
Forests asset is pace on the wings and the no. 9 Davis I think was excellent when he came on. A handful.
Nullify that and we win. Carlos will have a plan. He always does.
Not scared whatsoever. Bring it on

For me they have 2 good players - Spence and Johnson - the rest are no better that Town have. To counter we have Thomas and LOB is due a good game. Goalies....very good on both sides. Nicholls just pips it for me.
It will be a very tight game and if it comes to pens well who knows

Thing I'm most concerned about is will dealing with Johnson nullify Tofolo or will we trust in Sarr or Colwill to cope against him and try to put the pressure on them?

Just seen an article on the unexamined. It’s says the media bias is justified because the trees haven’t been in the top flight for 22 years? So if that’s the justification why the media bias when we got promoted to the top flight after a 46 year absence? Nottingham is a northern town Gary Neville? Where was our “media coverage?” Fucking dog shit response examiner shake yer head have a word! We are the town and we are going up

Feel a bit sorry for Pearson who's been a big part of our defence most of this campaign. Lees is playing at his maximum just now though, but my concerns are over Colwill,Sarr and Pipa who to me all have a mistake in them.
Turton has done well so I'd have him in a back 4..with Toffs at lb. We can't afford to leave space behind our fullbacks or we will be fully exposed.. I remember that 1st half at forest in the cup where Ruffles had an absolute nightmare at lb and was taken off at half time.

Back 4 pretty average is doing them a disservice to be honest - Worrall is very good and will certainly be off to the prem if they don’t go up. They’ve conceded 7 less than us this season after having a shocking start.
Don’t judge their last performance as their quality over the whole season.

They are clear favourites & were the underdogs
It’s the reversal of the semi final but we saw that was close… and could have gone the other way
There’s nothing to say it can’t go out way on the day
We’ve got a good habit of not conceding when under pressure and scoring a set piece winner
Add to that in m our last 4 appearances in the play off finals we’ve scored 0, conceded 3 but been promoted 3 times - never write us off!

The key advantage we hold over them is fitness & resilience. In both semis they looked leggy as fuck after 60 min and were a yard off the pace all over the pitch, and with better finishing the Blades would have killed them off. If we can keep them at bay for that long then the more time drags on, the more it will favour us.

We have nothing to fear, yes, they are a good side & the manager is as good as he is ugly, but we are a good side too, with a half decent manager to boot.
They may be the bookies favourites but serious gamblers will likely be on us.... we finished above them, have a seriously good play off record & have a much better record over the last 5 or 6 games. The pressure is all on Forest, who, apparently, only have to turn up to win.
I believe they edge it on individual skill but I'd back our team spirit over anyone's.
Let's just enjoy it, trust in the lads &, whatever happens, we have far surpassed this season what anyone on here thought at the start of the season.

Was also thinking that we have one big factor in our favour. Carlos on the touch line - far better looking than Cooper. You saw it when Forest blew it against Bournemouth - players looking to the touchline and seeing Cooper next to Parker, who I think is a very good looking geezer, and you could see their heads drop. Those are the fine margins that can make the difference.


And yes, I'm aware of the typo in the title- @Our Kids Dad can you fix please?
 
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Wonderful thread. Personally I think we will need to spring a surprise tactical surprise or surprise selection to win this one. I think we were too one dimensional and the midfield was consumed. I really feel there is an argument for cafu instead of Zinc with Zinc coming on too exploit a tired defence. I would also start with Keinan
 
Great work as always on the thread Pope
We've always come back stronger after a defeat under Cooper, but I agree with the above that we maybe need to spring a tactical surprise somewhere, I'm not clever enough to make a sensible suggestion but sure Cooper will have something up his sleeve.
Hopefully Davis will be fit enough to start as he has become so critical to how we want to play. He really helped to stem the flow, and eventually turn the tide on Tuesday evening, and once he got going we gave as good as we got. Hope they got him wrapped in cotton wool
 
I really hope that we turn up, Tuesday night gave me a bit of a scare if I’m honest. Huddersfield will fancy themselves having watched us the other night. But we’ve generally followed up poor results and performances, with a performance befitting our league position.

We’re 90 minutes away from something really quite special, far better than Ian Dowie’s feat in 2004. But having so many “key” loan players, and the possibility of losing one or two key men in the summer, this really has a real “now or never” air about it all.

In Cooper I trust!
 
Wonderful thread. Personally I think we will need to spring a surprise tactical surprise or surprise selection to win this one. I think we were too one dimensional and the midfield was consumed. I really feel there is an argument for cafu instead of Zinc with Zinc coming on too exploit a tired defence. I would also start with Keinan
Davis will be our secret weapon as he should be 100% fit. Bring it on
 
I expect Huddersfield to play a very physical game and use “wind up” tactics targeting Spence and Jono in particular for some rough treatment. If we’re fully fit rested and refreshed I can’t see them living with us.
 
Great thread Pope.

I think Huddersfield will adopt a high press and try to dominate the midfield, like Sheffield did. We need to counter this by having high intensity ourselves and planning to keep the ball much better. Having Davis up front will help greatly with holding the ball up and bringing others into the game. Cooper will have been disappointed with the way we failed to cope with SU in the second leg and I trust him to have us passing the ball better on the expansive, Wembley pitch as this is the key to playing well as a team.

Garner is important in our midfield, alongside Yates, and I truly hope he will have recovered from his apparent hamstring issue.

It will be an intense, nervous occasion and we have to maintain our composure and discipline, then to believe in our game, if we are to succeed.
 
First game we had with them they were very physical and In your face

We will need high intensity
 
I really hope that we turn up, Tuesday night gave me a bit of a scare if I’m honest. Huddersfield will fancy themselves having watched us the other night. But we’ve generally followed up poor results and performances, with a performance befitting our league position.

We’re 90 minutes away from something really quite special, far better than Ian Dowie’s feat in 2004. But having so many “key” loan players, and the possibility of losing one or two key men in the summer, this really has a real “now or never” air about it all.

In Cooper I trust!
Both sides were favorites before the second leg and imo both sides were nervous. Hudders were a bit lucky to beat Luton. The winners will be the team that can relax the most and play without too much fear.
 
Cheers Pope, brilliant thread as always.

To quote one of your favourites this is all going to be about ‘fine margins’.

We are the bookies favourite to go up but I think it’s too close to call. If we turn up and hold our nerve, play as we know we can, then I believe we will win but I imagine their fans will say exactly the same.

Bring it on!
 
Certainly feel Davis will start and have at least an hour. This suits Sturrige as it means he is running at a tiring defence. Do not see any changes in team or even set up, at least to start with. At some stage, unless winning, can see Jonno moving across to left and attacking Turton. This will allow Spence to play left wing.

Thomas and deadballs are the main threat. Feel they will try to strong arm Johnson and rough him up a bit. Worrall and Yates need to get in refs ear. Could find Johnson playing much closer to Davis rather than very wide right. Again Spence will have to provide width. Spence staying high will force Tuffalo to remain in own half. We need to limit the number of crosses, free kicks and corners they get, as at some stage they will score from one. We also need to stop Dwayne from running yards with ball.