CDX_EIRE
Vital Football Legend
You also have to be conscious of comparing eras. This is now post-Covid, fees will be reduced and/or the number of moves less than before. Maguire at £80m was at the peak of the time before things got financially tough. I don't forsee a club willing to shell that out on a centre-back now for another 18 months at least.
I have a blog where I wrote about player valuations and for me it goes back to what the player is worth to the selling club. That's all that matters really. The TV deal as well as years served in the EPL has given some clubs a lot of leverage. IMO half the clubs can base their player's valuation relative to the danger of relegation.
Burnley selling Tarkowski puts them at an existential threat hence the 50MM value, plus the Maguire valuation adds another layer of complexity to it for CBs. Palace with Zaha is another, IMO solely based on the factor they'd be relegation fodder without him and would need at least 50MM-80MM to get an expensive player in to replace him and a little padding in case they did go down.
Our valuation of Grealish is more dynamic now. Last year you'd say relegation plus the loss of future revenue put him at 80MM. Now we're currently in the chasing pack so you can tag another 20MM-40MM easily plus his output has increased. That type of valuation prices him out of a sale because at that value any team buying him would have to think that it is a deal that takes them to the next level. Its difficult to say whether he does take a team like Liverpool or United to another level. I rate him as highly as anyone but I don't know if he takes either of them to another level. United could pay it though they're dumb enough. Grealish will make them better but not by enough to oust Liverpool or City. Their problems are so deep Grealish can't fix them.
Transfers between PL clubs seem to be becoming few and far between. Any enquiry for a first choice player is now met with an eyewatering valuation by the selling club (Tarkowski for £50m is crazy, Konsa would at least be on a par if not more). The only PL players likely to move between clubs now are usually fringe players who aren't getting much game time i.e. Targett, Emi, Mings, Barkley. If we are going to make any big money signings this summer, they are likely to be from Europe
I would argue that only makes sense given what I mentioned above. Most teams just dont need to sell. Teams coming up about 3 years ago had such an advantage over the last few crops of promoted teams. I would say a lot of promotion chasers should have an alternate 3 year plan that factors in immediate relegation and immediate promotion. I honestly think in the first instance they should just assume they will get relegated. There is a measurable financial gulf.
Given Suso was sacked I don't think that was our plan but I do feel it was a consideration. I think teams should be looking at us as a model for success but modify the plan and learn from our mistakes. Good management will do that, they'll actually see our real mistakes and won't blindly buy 10 players. They might get 5 or 6 though and spend a little bigger on one or two key players. And they'll stick with the manager and they'll say "no matter what we're in a better position, if we go down we'll retain the core and with whatever we've saved by not going full Aston Villa we'll reinvest again".
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