The Summer 2021 Transfer Rumour Thread | Page 4 | Vital Football

The Summer 2021 Transfer Rumour Thread

CDX_EIRE

Vital Football Hero
#61
You also have to be conscious of comparing eras. This is now post-Covid, fees will be reduced and/or the number of moves less than before. Maguire at £80m was at the peak of the time before things got financially tough. I don't forsee a club willing to shell that out on a centre-back now for another 18 months at least.
I have a blog where I wrote about player valuations and for me it goes back to what the player is worth to the selling club. That's all that matters really. The TV deal as well as years served in the EPL has given some clubs a lot of leverage. IMO half the clubs can base their player's valuation relative to the danger of relegation.

Burnley selling Tarkowski puts them at an existential threat hence the 50MM value, plus the Maguire valuation adds another layer of complexity to it for CBs. Palace with Zaha is another, IMO solely based on the factor they'd be relegation fodder without him and would need at least 50MM-80MM to get an expensive player in to replace him and a little padding in case they did go down.

Our valuation of Grealish is more dynamic now. Last year you'd say relegation plus the loss of future revenue put him at 80MM. Now we're currently in the chasing pack so you can tag another 20MM-40MM easily plus his output has increased. That type of valuation prices him out of a sale because at that value any team buying him would have to think that it is a deal that takes them to the next level. Its difficult to say whether he does take a team like Liverpool or United to another level. I rate him as highly as anyone but I don't know if he takes either of them to another level. United could pay it though they're dumb enough. Grealish will make them better but not by enough to oust Liverpool or City. Their problems are so deep Grealish can't fix them.

Transfers between PL clubs seem to be becoming few and far between. Any enquiry for a first choice player is now met with an eyewatering valuation by the selling club (Tarkowski for £50m is crazy, Konsa would at least be on a par if not more). The only PL players likely to move between clubs now are usually fringe players who aren't getting much game time i.e. Targett, Emi, Mings, Barkley. If we are going to make any big money signings this summer, they are likely to be from Europe
I would argue that only makes sense given what I mentioned above. Most teams just dont need to sell. Teams coming up about 3 years ago had such an advantage over the last few crops of promoted teams. I would say a lot of promotion chasers should have an alternate 3 year plan that factors in immediate relegation and immediate promotion. I honestly think in the first instance they should just assume they will get relegated. There is a measurable financial gulf.

Given Suso was sacked I don't think that was our plan but I do feel it was a consideration. I think teams should be looking at us as a model for success but modify the plan and learn from our mistakes. Good management will do that, they'll actually see our real mistakes and won't blindly buy 10 players. They might get 5 or 6 though and spend a little bigger on one or two key players. And they'll stick with the manager and they'll say "no matter what we're in a better position, if we go down we'll retain the core and with whatever we've saved by not going full Aston Villa we'll reinvest again".
 
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gator

Vital Champions League
#62
People have an outcry over the fees for the likes of Maguire and Tarkowski but that's what their clubs value(d) them at.

Look at Burnley, Tarkowski was their ready made replacement for Michael Keane; but their back-up now is Kevin Long who when best come in to replace either Mee or Tarkowski for prolonged periods in the league is when they hit slumps. They wasted £15m on Ben Gibson from Boro who was complimented on his season in the top flight with them but whose career has now stalled because he couldn't break up that centre-back partnership.

He is vital to their defensive solidity (and ultimately survival), so why would Burnley consider £15m for him when they've got to find a suitable replacement (someone willing to move to a club that has no aura or suggestion of going further) and train them to fit the system (which as with all signings isn't a guarantee), etc.

What a player's genuine value is should never really be taken into account in my opinion, it is what the player is worth to both the buying and selling club that determines his fee.

You also have to be conscious of comparing eras. This is now post-Covid, fees will be reduced and/or the number of moves less than before. Maguire at £80m was at the peak of the time before things got financially tough. I don't forsee a club willing to shell that out on a centre-back now for another 18 months at least.
A player is only worth what the highest bidder is prepared to pay for him.
 

crimsondonkey

Vital 1st Team Regular
#63
A player is only worth what the highest bidder is prepared to pay for him.
Which is itself a function of the total amount of money available to chase him with.

When the TV deal money really went through the roof we saw a rising tide lift all ships, regardless of talent etc.
 

davewal1

Vital Youth Team
#64
VVD will be back for Liverpool. They needed a CB in January and didnt so cant see them spending big money in the summer. Levy at Spurs never pays big transfer fees. To suggest that I dont think he is not good enough is ridiculous because I rate him higher than Mings. The point I was making is that we are no longer a selling club where teams such as Spurs can just make a silly offer thinking they can get who they want. Oh and I am not your friend.
VVD should be back but with that injury who knows its the same injury wesley got and he has been out 12 months you would think that a club like liverpool would always be looking to improve there squad and not stand still and get caught out again like this season . konsa has been one of our stand out players this season and last and your right to say were not a selling club these days but that being said every player has there price and ambitions and maybe liverpool are looking for someone to partner VVD and have watched how well he and mings play together
i think in the real market we may get between 30 to 40 million given how well he is doing in the top league and his age . at the moment i only see us (villa) as a mid table side and there is still a fair bit of work to do to get us top six and maybe be konsa wants to be winning things and becomes unsettled ..hope not but it does happen
 

overlookedvillan

Vital Reserves Team
#65
This is upsetting (trigger warning)...but i think every club needs to be a selling club in a ffp world.

We are not going to be able to compete with teams that regularly get champions league because their income is boosted massively, so we need to be smarter and less sentimental.

We need buy low and sell high if we plan on ascending, otherwise we’ll end up offering inflated contracts, stagnating, then needing to hit the reset button.

Unless we are confident that we can get to the holy land that is the champions league in the next 2 years then we should be looking to sell players at or close to peek value.

We either push hard and ride the Jack Grealish train all the way to top 4, or we look for a more sustainable and long term future. This summer will tell us which of these options our owners will go for. If it’s the later, then we should really be considering selling Konsa for what would be a considerable profit.

Having said that, i’d be extremely surprise if anyone comes close to matching the fee that would be required to shift him (50+mil would be my guess).

I’d much rather be talking about a push for trophies and long term club legends, but this is the world of ffp.
 

gator

Vital Champions League
#66
Which is itself a function of the total amount of money available to chase him with.

When the TV deal money really went through the roof we saw a rising tide lift all ships, regardless of talent etc.
All down to markets I reckon this summer will be a really weak market making a buyers I can see some real bargains being available let's hope we can take advantage.
 

davewal1

Vital Youth Team
#67
I have a blog where I wrote about player valuations and for me it goes back to what the player is worth to the selling club. That's all that matters really. The TV deal as well as years served in the EPL has given some clubs a lot of leverage. IMO half the clubs can base their player's valuation relative to the danger of relegation.

Burnley selling Tarkowski puts them at an existential threat hence the 50MM value, plus the Maguire valuation adds another layer of complexity to it for CBs. Palace with Zaha is another, IMO solely based on the factor they'd be relegation fodder without him and would need at least 50MM-80MM to get an expensive player in to replace him and a little padding in case they did go down.

Our valuation of Grealish is more dynamic now. Last year you'd say relegation plus the loss of future revenue put him at 80MM. Now we're currently in the chasing pack so you can tag another 20MM-40MM easily plus his output has increased. That type of valuation prices him out of a sale because at that value any team buying him would have to think that it is a deal that takes them to the next level. Its difficult to say whether he does take a team like Liverpool or United to another level. I rate him as highly as anyone but I don't know if he takes either of them to another level. United could pay it though they're dumb enough. Grealish will make them better but not by enough to oust Liverpool or City. Their problems are so deep Grealish can't fix them.



I would argue that only makes sense given what I mentioned above. Most teams just dont need to sell. Teams coming up about 3 years ago had such an advantage over the last few crops of promoted teams. I would say a lot of promotion chasers should have an alternate 3 year plan that factors in immediate relegation and immediate promotion. I honestly think in the first instance they should just assume they will get relegated. There is a measurable financial gulf.

Given Suso was sacked I don't think that was our plan but I do feel it was a consideration. I think teams should be looking at us as a model for success but modify the plan and learn from our mistakes. Good management will do that, they'll actually see our real mistakes and won't blindly buy 10 players. They might get 5 or 6 though and spend a little bigger on one or two key players. And they'll stick with the manager and they'll say "no matter what we're in a better position, if we go down we'll retain the core and with whatever we've saved by not going full Aston Villa we'll reinvest again".
just read a post by CDX talking about clubs becoming relegation fodder without certain players in there side and the last few games we have played and grealish has been marked out the game we too look like relegation material
we dont seen to have a plan B or game changers that can come off the bench and change things . i like smith and co but i feel his subs are left too late in games to really have any impact and most the time the changes he makes are like for like players and playing the same system we also like playing the long ball and were becoming far too easy to play against
 

southend_villan

Vital Reserves Team
#68
just read a post by CDX talking about clubs becoming relegation fodder without certain players in there side and the last few games we have played and grealish has been marked out the game we too look like relegation material
we dont seen to have a plan B or game changers that can come off the bench and change things . i like smith and co but i feel his subs are left too late in games to really have any impact and most the time the changes he makes are like for like players and playing the same system we also like playing the long ball and were becoming far too easy to play against
Relegation fodder!? A bit of an over reaction mate
 

ironside

Vital 1st Team Regular
#70
Yves Bissouma at Brighton is an interesting prospect. Sits in front of the back four, breaks up play and gives height and cover for the defence. He is a physical player and I haven’t seen him dominated by any opposition player. Wins the ball and gives it. About 26 years old with a couple of years left on his contract.
Doesn’t score many goals but neither did Des Bremner.
Just a thought.
 

CDX_EIRE

Vital Football Hero
#71
Yves Bissouma at Brighton is an interesting prospect. Sits in front of the back four, breaks up play and gives height and cover for the defence. He is a physical player and I haven’t seen him dominated by any opposition player. Wins the ball and gives it. About 26 years old with a couple of years left on his contract.
Doesn’t score many goals but neither did Des Bremner.
Just a thought.
I can't see us bringing in a player like that with Marv there. Contrary to popular belief he can actually pass the ball but Dean wants more from whoever sits there. I think he wants a Kalvin Philips / Declan Rice not an Ndidi or Kante.
 
#74
Tammy Abraham link rear their ugly heads again because he's allegedly refused to talk new contracts while Chelsea are linked with Haaland . Not sure who makes this stuff up.
 

Xchurch Villa

Vital Squad Member
#76
Undoubtedly we have the foundations of a good side. I simply want two quality signings this summer, it's just what we need.

Probably a winger and a defensive mid field player. Or somebody to fill the role we had such hopes of Barkly filling. If there's any change an addition to our up and coming squad thanks.

If we don't invest I have a horrible feeling we could slip a bit next year. Not relegation candidates but a slight slip.
 
#77
I think we need a stardust No.10 who can pick a defence splitting pass. Super Jack is more of a dribbler , not saying he hasn't got the vision , but I would rather see him play his inside left kind of role and have someone he can link up with.

No idea who though , and the quality we will be aiming at will most likely be our record signing.
 

JW1985

Vital 1st Team Regular
#78
I think defensively we're fine. Perhaps Engels out and another cb in. Lb competition for Targett also. Its the attack we're really short in. El Ghazi, Trez and Traore aren't Starters for a team chasing Europe. 1 or more, probably El Ghazi and Trez will have to go ro be replaced by 1 top quality winger, possibly 2. Barkleys going back to Chelsea so we either need to move Jack into the middle or sign another creative midfielder.
 

CDX_EIRE

Vital Football Hero
#79
If we don't invest I have a horrible feeling we could slip a bit next year. Not relegation candidates but a slight slip.
We will invest, I would expect a minimum of 2 if not 3 players. I would imagine this will largely depend on who we can ship out.

Of utmost importance is someone on the other flank who is a consistent extreme danger. Bert blows hot and cold, AEG flatters to deceive and Trez a try-er god love him. I think AEG has had enough of a decent season we could get 10M for him.

I would say CM, RW, CF and LB would be signings I would look at. I think we need another CF who is a threat and a young LB who can step in and play similar to Targett every now and then.
 

1958Villan

Vital Football Hero
#80
Odsonne Edouard of Celtic, plus the inevitable Tammy Abraham of Chelsea links have come up, yet again.
Some of Europe's big clubs are reported to be showing an interest in Edouard, now his asking price has dropped by 50%, to £20 million.
I don't have a clue how much Chelsea will ask for Abraham but, I suspect it will be way out of our range, if the £35 million price they have slapped on Barkley's head is anything to go by.
I think Wesley and Ollie could play together as Wesley has played off the left wing quite a lot and Ollie prefers playing off the wing as he believes it is his best position.
If a decent Centre-forward who can play left wing is needed, having a look at Myron Boadu of AZ Alkmaar is a good idea, he's played 23 games, scored 11 and assisted 1. He is 20 years old so has a lot of time for improvement but, he is rated at the same price as Edouard.
Personally I think any money we have available should be spent strengthening other area's first.