The Run In | Page 4 | Vital Football

The Run In

Here are the remaining fixtures for each club (in order):

ACCRINGTON
Colchester (A)
Exeter (H)
Yeovil (H)
Wycombe (A)
Newport (A)
Lincoln (H)
Swindon (A)
Current points: 80
Games remaining: 7
Maximum points: 101
Verdict: Horrific set of fixtures, with 5 against teams chasing promotion. Should not matter, they should have enough points in the bag to get them over the line to automatic promotion.

LUTON
Yeovil (A)
Crewe (H)
Carlisle (A)
Forest Green (H)
Notts County (A)
Current points: 77
Games remaining: 5
Maximum points: 92
Verdict: Only 8 points clear of Exeter, relatively tough set of fixtures. Wins over FGR and Crewe and a couple of draws should be enough for automatic promotion.

WYCOMBE
Yeovil (A)
Lincoln (A)
Accrington (H)
Chesterfield (A)
Stevenage (H)
Current points: 74
Games remaining: 5
Maximum points: 89
Verdict: Very tough! Stevenage looks to be the obvious win, but the other four could be defeats. Should have a play-off place in the bag, but the third promotion place could be wide open.

EXETER:
Cambridge (A)
Accrington (A)
Chesterfield (H)
Crawley (H)
Stevenage (A)
Colchester (H)
Current points: 69
Games remaining: 6
Maximum points: 87
Verdict: The next two games against Cambridge and Accrington are tough, but relatively comfortable after that. Will be in the play-offs, and could challenge for third if Wycombe falter.

NOTTS COUNTY
Coventry (H)
Colchester (A)
Yeovil (H)
Grimsby (A)
Luton (H)
Current points: 67
Games remaining: 5
Maximum points: 82
Verdict: Their form since Christmas has been relegation form. County have taken just 1.1 points per game from their last 17 matches - this set of fixtures looks terminal to their promotion challenge. Very unlikely to make the play-offs unless they find some legs from somewhere.

LINCOLN
Port Vale (A)
Wycombe (H)
Colchester (H)
Coventry (A)
Accrington (A)
Yeovil (H)
Current points: 67
Games remaining: 6
Maximum points: 85
Verdict: Port Vale, Colchester and Yeovil have to be wins to make the play-offs. Six wins should mean automatic promotion.

COVENTRY
Notts County (A)
Crawley (A)
Stevenage (H)
Lincoln (H)
Cheltenham (A)
Morecambe (H)
Current points: 65
Games remaining: 6
Maximum points: 83
Verdict: The Yeovil defeat may have inflicted serious damage. Almost anything could happen here, but automatic promotion very unlikely now.

MANSFIELD
Crewe (H)
Stevenage (A)
Chesterfield (A)
Port Vale (H)
Yeovil (A)
Crawley (H)
Current points: 63
Games remaining: 6
Maximum points: 81
Verdict: Not a bad set of fixtures on paper, but they have picked up just 3 points from Flitcroft's first 5 games. Currently without a win in 7 games. Five of the six games are against sides with little to play for, but Mansfield are in poor form.

SWINDON
Carlisle (H)
Yeovil (H)
Newport (A)
Grimsby (H)
Colchester (A)
Accrington (H)
Current points: 62
Games remaining: 6
Maximum points: 80
Verdict: Tough final two games in particular. With a very poor goal difference (+1), realistically they need 5 wins. Having taken just 5 points from their last 6 games, that appears very unlikely.

COLCHESTER
Accrington (H)
Notts County (H)
Lincoln (A)
Swindon (H)
Exeter (A)
Current points: 61
Games remaining: 5
Maximum points: 76
Verdict: Need to win all 5 and hope for the best. With every game against promotion-contenders and an inferior goal difference (+6), they have far too much to do.

CARLISLE
Swindon (A)
Morecambe (A)
Luton (H)
Port Vale (A)
Newport (H)
Current points: 60
Games remaining: 5
Maximum points: 75
Verdict: Even 5 wins would only take them to 75 points; another side with a poor goal difference (+7), Carlisle appear to be out of contention.
 
Most sides have 6 games to go, so where are they all in the form table for the last 6 games?

1. Accrington18 points
2. LINCOLN 14
3. Wycombe 12
4. Coventry 11
5. Colchester 11
6. Exeter 10
7. Carlisle 9
10. Luton 8
18. Notts County 6
19. Swindon 5
22. Mansfield 3
 
I looked at this Scotimp and basically said if each side picks up the same amount of points in their remaining fixtures as they did in the same number of previous fixtures this is what the end table would look like...

Accrington p38 80 +22 = 102
Luton p41 77 +8 = 85
Wycombe p41 74 +11 = 85
Lincoln p40 67 +14 = 81
Exeter p40 69 +10 = 79
Coventry p40 65 +11 = 76
Notts p41 67 +5 = 72
Colchester p41 61 +10 = 71
Swindon p40 62 +5 = 67
Mansfield p40 63 +3 = 66
Carlisle p41 60 +6 = 66

Probably not possible for that to happen because lots of teams playing each other and obviously some have just come through tough runs, etc.
 
I've had a go at predicting results. I've tried to be fair.
ACCRINGTON
Colchester (A) 1
Exeter (H) 1
Yeovil (H) 3
Wycombe (A) 0
Newport (A) 1
Lincoln (H) 1
Swindon (A) 1
Current points: 80
Games remaining: 7
Predicted points: 88


LUTON
Yeovil (A) 1
Crewe (H) 3
Carlisle (A) 1
Forest Green (H) 3
Notts County (A) 1
Current points: 77
Games remaining: 5
Predicted points: 86


WYCOMBE
Yeovil (A) 1
Lincoln (A) 0
Accrington (H) 3
Chesterfield (A) 3
Stevenage (H)3
Current points: 74
Games remaining: 5
Predicted points: 84


EXETER:
Cambridge (A) 1
Accrington (A) 1
Chesterfield (H)3
Crawley (H)3
Stevenage (A)1
Colchester (H)3
Current points: 69
Games remaining: 6
Predicted points: 81


NOTTS COUNTY
Coventry (H) 3
Colchester (A)1
Yeovil (H) 3
Grimsby (A)3
Luton (H) 1
Current points: 67
Games remaining: 5
Predicted points: 78

LINCOLN
Port Vale (A) 3
Wycombe (H) 3
Colchester (H)3
Coventry (A) 0
Accrington (A) 1
Yeovil (H) 3
Current points: 67
Games remaining: 6
Predicted points: 80


COVENTRY
Notts County (A) 0
Crawley (A)3
Stevenage (H)3
Lincoln (H) 3
Cheltenham (A)1
Morecambe (H)3
Current points: 65
Games remaining: 6
Predicted points: 78


MANSFIELD
Crewe (H) 3
Stevenage (A) 1
Chesterfield (A)3
Port Vale (H)3
Yeovil (A)1
Crawley (H)3
Current points: 63
Games remaining: 6
Predicted points: 77


SWINDON
Carlisle (H) 3
Yeovil (H) 3
Newport (A) 1
Grimsby (H) 3
Colchester (A) 1
Accrington (H) 1
Current points: 62
Games remaining: 6
Predicted points: 74


COLCHESTER
Accrington (H) 1
Notts County (H) 1
Lincoln (A) 0
Swindon (H)1
Exeter (A) 0
Current points: 61
Games remaining: 5
Predicted points: 64


CARLISLE
Swindon (A) 0
Morecambe (A) 1
Luton (H) 1
Port Vale (A) 3
Newport (H) 3
Current points: 60
Games remaining: 5
Predicted points: 68
 
At the bottom. I've just done a predictor for the bottom 3. Interestingly I have given Grimsby v Chesterfield tomorrow to the cods. If the result goes the other way, then it would be enough to relegate Grimsby at the end of the season, and Chesterfield stay up. Big, big game tomorrow. They also have Barnet in their next game.
GRIMSBY
Currently on 38
5 games to play

Chesterfield H 3
Barnet a 1
Swindon a 0
Notts Co H 0
FGR a 1

Predicted points 43


CHESTERFIELD
Currently on 34 pts
8 games to play

Grimsby a 0
Morecambe a 1
Mansfield H 0
Exeter a 0
Forest Green a 1
Wycombe H 0
Newport H 3
Barnet a 0

Predicted points 39


BARNET
Currently on 33 pts
5 games to play

Forest Green H 3
Grimsby A 1
Newport H 1
Morecambe A 0
Chesterfield H 3

Predicted points 41
 
Sincilbanks said:
Wycombe only getting 4 points between now and the end of the season looks a little unlikely!
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I tend to agree, but they have drawn 3 of the last 6 they have 5 left and I have them for a defeat against us and 4 draws. They have 3 away and Accrington at home. Even giving them an extra 2 against Stevenage leaves them adrift of automatic.
 
Still 6 matches to go but another round of fixtures played (excl Wycombe)

Champions: 94 (+3) points
3rd Place: 81 (unchanged) points
7th Place: 74 (unchanged) point
Lincoln City: 6th place 75 (+1) points
 
Impartiality said:
I tend to agree, but they have drawn 3 of the last 6 they have 5 left and I have them for a defeat against us and 4 draws. They have 3 away and Accrington at home. Even giving them an extra 2 against Stevenage leaves them adrift of automatic.
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Wycombe have the best away record in the division going to be tough one!
 
After today, I think we still have a reasonable chance of automatic promotion, especially if we beat Port Vale and Wycombe. Maybe I'm being over optimistic, but you never know...
 
I think the automatic is a stretch, (you never know), but I certainly wouldn't bet against being back at Wembley for the play off Final.
 
Wycombe and Exeter's to win or throw away accordingly. I would be very happy to consolidate the play off spot with a win at Vale and only then begin to think about an improbable third spot if we beat Wycombe. We would need to be ahead of Wycombe going into the last game which is a massive ask in such a short number of games. Exeter are no mugs either as we saw.
 
Realistically, we need two wins and a draw for the play-offs and five wins for the third automatic spot.

However, the picture changes with every game week - with Mansfield and Swindon unable to buy a win, perhaps we have enough already!
 
Another pivotal week ahead. Isn't it great being in a position to think about all this.

Mansfield have a tough looking match away at Stevenage tomorrow. Swindon also play. Our play off spot could look even more secure on Wednesday morning.

Massive Saturday. Tough looking match for Exeter away at Accrington and if we can get 3 points at Vale we will definitely be able to talk about a real 6 pointer on Tuesday night vs Wycombe and maybe start talking about challenging for 3rd a little more loudly.
 
All too complicated for me, just get what we can from our games and see where it takes us.....and hope the ref's union aren't taking an unneccessarily close view of Matt after yesterday.
 
The team looks full of confidence at the moment and rightly so, we came on strong last season at the death and appear to be doing so again. 3rd place may just beyond us but who knows particularly if we can beat Vale and Wycombe. However even if we get in the play-offs I would fancy our chances I think yesterday (even if we didn't know it) clearly demonstrates that this team has the mental strength and character to achieve almost anything!
 
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