The Run In | Vital Football

The Run In

Toon_NoMatterWot

Toon_NoMatterWot

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The bookies pretty much have us out of bother with the likes of Sky Bet offering 9/1 on us going down.

As far as the odds go, they have 3 out of 6 with both Norwich and Watford nailed on to go with Leeds next favourite to drop. Just hope we can continue to pick up points as I reckon this season's run in is going to be the most intense finish there's been for years.

Anyway, here's the best prices on relegation as it stands:

Crystal Palace 40/1
Us 9/1

Everton 4/1
Brentford 12/5
Burnley 15/8
Leeds 17/10
Watford 2/7
Norwich 1/11
 
As I briefly mentioned yesterday Leeds have confirmed this morning they have sacked Bielsa (awfully short sighted decision). With some Austrian fella and Fat Sam being tipped to takeover. With their spine out (Phillips, Bamford and Cooper) and the vast majority of the players being Championship standard at best and excelling because of Bielsa I'd say it's now between them and Brentford for the third relegation place.
 
From my own perspective until we get near the 35 -37 point mark, I am not ruling us out.
We can see from our own and burnleys recent run , a few good results and you can soon pull away. We have some tough games coming up (which I do not dread as much now we are playing better as a team)
 
Here is how the run in looks for the teams in danger and that includes us. Teams in bold are those in danger of relegation

Much has been made about our last game of the season being away to Burnley but it should be sorted out by then you'd feel and there are other clubs that meet on that last day, So what looked like a nightmare scenario for us could well likely turn out to be good watching if we continue our form

The last Sunday of the season also sees Brentford v Leeds which will almost certainly contain one side already in the bottom 3 maybe both of them. Brentford have the least amount of games left but arguably the biggest role with their last 2 games seeing them away to Everton before that Leeds match.

Everton are in massive trouble because one of their games is still to be arranged in an already crammed fixture list not to mention they are still in the FA Cup and will most likely progress further with a home game against Boreham Wood being their obstacle at present. Progression here would then see their massive away game at Watford moved.

The run in:

Norwich - (H) to Brentford, Chelsea, Burnley, Us, West Ham and Spurs
(A) to Leeds, Brighton, Man Utd, Aston Villa, Leicester and Wolves

Watford - (H) to Arsenal, Everton, Leeds, Brentford, Burnley and Leicester
(A) to Wolves, Southampton, Liverpool, Man City, Crystal Palace and Chelsea

Leeds - (H) to Aston Villa, Norwich, Southampton, Chelsea, Man City and Brighton
(A) to Leicester, Wolves, Watford, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Brentford

Burnley - (H) to Leicester, Chelsea, Everton, Southampton, Man City, Wolves, Aston Villa and Us
(A) to Aston Villa, Brentford, Norwich, West Ham, Watford and Spurs

Brentford - (H) to Burnley, West Ham, Spurs, Southampton and Leeds
(A) to Norwich, Leicester, Chelsea, Watford, Man Utd and Everton

Everton - (H) to Wolves, Us, Man Utd, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Leicester and Brentford
(A) to Spurs, Burnley, Watford, West Ham, Liverpool, Leicester and Arsenal

Our run in is Home to: Brighton, Crystal Palace, Wolves, Leicester, Liverpool and Arsenal

Away to Southampton, Chelsea, Everton (all 3 games played in a 7 day period), Spurs, Norwich, Man City and Burnley


Overall Norwich and Watford are the teams most in trouble but they have the most say with more teams in trouble to face at home.

Leeds will have a new manager and there may be a bounce but with injuries they can't produce miracles with the same to be said over Everton who also have injuries and a nightmare, on paper, run in with a home game against Brentford on the 2nd last weekend of the season to calm the nerves with. They finish at Arsenal.
 
I think Everton have sorted their problem😁 and would have beaten most teams in the premier with that level of performance yesterday.

Leeds also played some great football yesterday, it's their gung ho approach that was the problem, maybe their next manager will deal with that but they are obviously in big trouble for now.

We have a crucial buffer and have a more than average chance of adding to it against Brighton, Crystal Palace and Leicester at home and Spurs, Norwich and Burnley away.
 
To put things into a clearer perspective you can show an alternative table, so to speak.

I will show what current points teams have and what their maximum total can be but we have to remember that all the teams down the bottom play each other so all maximums can't be reached. I make it something like 14 games that involve teams at the bottom which means that a minimum of 42 points will have to come off the remaining points to share about.

Anyway:

US - current points 25 - maximum achievable = 64

Brentford - 24, max = 57
Leeds - 23, max = 59
Everton - 22, max = 64
Burnley - 21, max = 63
Watford - 19, max = 55
Norwich - 17, max = 53
 
Form will also come into it with us being the 2nd top form team over the last 6 games getting 14 points out of a possible 18 available. The bottom 4 slots occupied by Leeds who have got 1 point in that same period along with Brentford also getting 1 point, Everton 3 points and Watford with 5 points out of 18.

Go back over a longer period and we've gained 15 points out of the last 10 games and occupy 9th in that form guide.

Coincidentally, the bottom 5 contain 5 of the 6 teams below us in the current league. Brentford with 4 points achieved out of 30 available, Watford getting 6 points, and Leeds, Norwich and Everton all getting 7 points.
 
The last transfer window is a clear indication that form is dictated largely by the squad of players available, we are a hugely improved team as a result of our last window.
In my opinion Everton and Leeds have a edge on us in terms of ability, that leaves the rest to fight over PL status.
 
PieMag said:
I think Everton have sorted their problem😁 and would have beaten most teams in the premier with that level of performance yesterday.

Leeds also played some great football yesterday, it's their gung ho approach that was the problem, maybe their next manager will deal with that but they are obviously in big trouble for now.

We have a crucial buffer and have a more than average chance of adding to it against Brighton, Crystal Palace and Leicester at home and Spurs, Norwich and Burnley away.
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Yeah, coz Fat Frank has them rockin'!
 
PieMag said:
Won't argue with you on this one Neps.
Feel free to do so in a more appropriate place though, unlike our forum of twelve or so opinions this one has thousands.

https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/relegation.113693/page-429
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Christ, I read some of that thread and the Everton lot seem too confident for my liking. They haven't factored in the fear factor, nerves and the pure luck or randomness of football.

We were too good to go down twice in the Ashley years but did and on at least two other occasions we deserved relegation but didn't get it (see last season for starters and the one where Jonas scored that goal v West Ham in the last game of the season)
 
Toon_NoMatterWot said:
Christ, I read some of that thread and the Everton lot seem too confident for my liking. They haven't factored in the fear factor, nerves and the pure luck or randomness of football.

We were too good to go down twice in the Ashley years but did and on at least two other occasions we deserved relegation but didn't get it (see last season for starters and the one where Jonas scored that goal v West Ham in the last game of the season)
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Exactly. But don't tell Pie 😅
 
Toon_NoMatterWot said:
Christ, I read some of that thread and the Everton lot seem too confident for my liking. They haven't factored in the fear factor, nerves and the pure luck or randomness of football.

We were too good to go down twice in the Ashley years but did and on at least two other occasions we deserved relegation but didn't get it (see last season for starters and the one where Jonas scored that goal v West Ham in the last game of the season)
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Very true toony.

Take a look at the 'Rafael Benitez' thread on the same forum though, they weren't so cocky when he was in charge which is what owld Neps just doesn't get.

Now they have hope as well as the realisation that their players are not half as bad as the one you referred to as broccoli nose made them look :grinning:

Hallelujah is their message and judging by the way they played against City I can see why.
 
PieMag said:
Won't argue with you on this one Neps.
Feel free to do so in a more appropriate place though, unlike our forum of twelve or so opinions this one has thousands.

https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/relegation.113693/page-429
Click to expand...
I remember that night when that 'pillar of integrity' Jimmy Hill delayed the kick off at Coventry so they knew the final score at Goodison. It was put up on the scoreboard, announced over the tannoy and the Coventry and Bristol fans knew a draw would keep both teams up. I just hope our premiership status doesn't depend on the last day with us away to Burnley and Brentford v Leeds
 
Mcnamee67 said:
I remember that night when that 'pillar of integrity' Jimmy Hill delayed the kick off at Coventry so they knew the final score at Goodison. It was put up on the scoreboard, announced over the tannoy and the Coventry and Bristol fans knew a draw would keep both teams up. I just hope our premiership status doesn't depend on the last day with us away to Burnley and Brentford v Leeds
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Aye read that one Mc.
Jaw dropping stuff, someone should have chinned him.

*sorry
 
Crap jokes aside we could easily have lost another one of our best performers on Saturday, Targett was lucky he did not end up with a snapped leg so I'm fully on board with the caution.
 
Mcnamee67 said:
I just hope our premiership status doesn't depend on the last day with us away to Burnley and Brentford v Leeds
Click to expand...

The way in which Howe has us performing and the increase in effort and knowledge of what the player's actual job is not to mention the new ownership, im getting more confident by the game that we'll be out of it with 3 or 4 games left to go, maybe sooner.
 
Bookies typically have us 16 or 17/1 to go down now but we'll know better when our 3 away games in 7 days stint is out the way.

Aside from that we know the current run is good but Eddie Howe seems to have got that message through to the squad that it's a job only half done in regards to safety but for me, the turnaround is right up there with the best there has ever been in history.

Howe has taken a side that only had 4 draws out of the first 10 games when his name was put down as potentially being our new boss. Then after, his first game linked saw him in the stands with Amanda Staveley to see us draw 1-1 at Brighton before him then getting the job full time.

He then got Covid so couldn't really train the team or prepare as well as he'd like with his supposed first game for us at home to Brentford then seeing him shut in the Hilton at Gateshead isolating. We drew that 3-3 but should and could have won.

His first game in the dug out saw us lose to Arsenal 2-0, a result that saw us bottom of the league and 6 points from safety, potentially 7 as our goal difference was 10 goals worse than those just outside the drop zone. A third of the season gone and most of us accepting relegation because we had renewed hope of a better future.

Howe's first appearance as manager at home saw Ciaran Clark get sent off after only 9 minutes and us ultimately draw 1-1 against Norwich. This result mean't we had gone 14 games since the start of the season and still not won a game. A stat so dramatic because no other team in history had survived after going so long win-less so the writing was on the wall. After 14 games we had 7 points.

Our first win didn't come till game 15 against Burnley but we lost the next 3 to leave us on 10 points from 18 games. A draw against Man Utd in our 19th game saw us achieve only 11 points at the half way stage and in our eyes absolutely no chance of survival.

Even after 20 games, we only had 12 points after drawing at home to Watford. With all the bottom teams faced at home, surely there was only going to be one outcome.

But, no. Here we are only 6 games later after getting 16 points out of a possible 18 to not only get us off the bottom and close the gap on the teams just above the drop zone, we've moved 7 points clear of it and have games in hand on three of the teams below us as well as cleared some of our goal difference.

We have momentum, we have players getting their confidence back with the back up of an actual plan that works and we sit here with 12 games to go knowing that we could be 2 wins, maybe 3 wins away from a bumper transfer window in the Summer and the potential dawn of a fantastic chapter for not only us, but world football.

Im not getting ahead of myself as we all have eyes and can see what difference Howe has made. Lets hope this continues and Howe get the massive credit that he will be due.
 
Putting things further into context of how we have improved, the points total we have now would have seen us safe last year already with Fulham finishing 3rd bottom and only getting 28 points with a massive minus goal difference.

We are also 2 points better off at this stage than last year which is a shock considering.

Finally, here is an update of the alternative table I made last time out.


US = current points 28 - maximum achievable = 64

Brentford - 27, max = 57
Leeds - 23, max = 56
Everton - 22, max = 64
Burnley - 21, max = 57
Watford - 19, max = 52
Norwich - 17, max = 50
 
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