The 'Profit & Sustainability' Thread | Page 21 | Vital Football

The 'Profit & Sustainability' Thread

Am I right in thinking the new owners did not have to pay Lerners £30M? They could have chose not to??? A £30M millstone around the club’s neck, wiped by these 2 generous owners
When the Tweeter defaulted, it automatically became a club liability. They had to pay.

However, you can choose to look at it as the Tweeter effectively lost £30m worth of shares without receiving a penny as a result of the process.
 
Oh and just for clarity - the £30m coughed to RL which goes down as an exceptional item is £30m of that announced debt. So taking in promotion bonuses/costs which would include any necessary PL compliance/VAR camera installation etc (stated at £45m in total) - we are incredibly healthy financially (given where we were) and not least on an FFP front heading into the 2019/20 season.

So all things balanced, given we've spent roughly what the PL year would give us in revenue for players, for FFP, even on relegation we're in a solid break even ball park going into next year (my guess) even if we are relegated.

Depending on how close that ball park is (wriggle room given by Wembley Cup run revenues all in etc and then commercial/sponsorship boosts for 2019/20 back in the PL at a higher rate than Championship, on relegation (as long as we DO HAVE sensible wage reductions/bonus reductions))......

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Guesswork and assumptions....don't take as truth!
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Whilst we might only have circa £10m to spend on relegation (extra leverage through owner capital + the next batch of players coming off our books), it's actually possible to my untrained eye that we might not need a single sale to be FFP compliant in 2020/21 back in the Championship.

I was actually expecting a slightly higher loss given the equity put in, and taking out the RL £30m, I am quietly delighted with that given where we started 2018/19.

That RL £30m is not counted in FFP. I also don't believe the promotion related bonuses would fall under FFP either - certainly not any applicable sum for compliance/VAR introduction etc.

Ipsofacto - for me - we went into 2019/20 with an FFP profit surplus (as opposed to a remaining debt) thanks to our stadium shenanigans. Now, that wouldn't follow forward as a credit (I don't think) but it means our 2019/20 spending started at a true zero sum for this year + the benefit of 2016/17 falling off our next assessment - so we were already ahead, and in roughly only spending what we gain from the PL (give or take), on relegation we again begin 2020/21 on a zero sum + the benefit of losing 2017/18 from the next equation come the end of 2020/21 and that's where we get the wriggle room to not sell, even if we can only minimally buy.

Again though folks, pure guesswork on my part here - I'm not a numbers whiz as you should ably know by now and I haven't even gandered the full accounts yet - I'm just pulling my own assumptions together given where we thought we might be with the added bonus of some real figures for last season.

Hope that makes sense - one of those where it makes sense to me, but I'm not sure if I've been clear enough?

So, yes, we could've spent significantly more in the summer and January and still be safe on an FFP front for 2019/20 specifically - but spending more then requires/guarantees sales if we drop again.

As speculated before - I think we've run the tightrope of spending enough to survive by the skin on our balls, whilst massively offsetting the risk of sales and a bigger rebuild should we drop and at least on these numbers, I think we've run the numbers close enough to at least give ourselves the choice on Jack/Mings/Grealish without our hand being forced by finances.

But of course, that naturally means we could've done more this season to improve our chances - yet with no guarantee more spending would equal an improvement in our chances.
 
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Oh and just for clarity - the £30m coughed to RL which goes down as an exceptional item is £30m of that announced debt. So taking in promotion bonuses/costs which would include any necessary PL compliance/VAR camera installation etc (stated at £45m in total) - we are incredibly healthy financially (given where we were) and not least on an FFP front heading into the 2019/20 season.

So all things balanced, given we've spent roughly what the PL year would give us in revenue for players, for FFP, even on relegation we're in a solid break even ball park going into next year (my guess) even if we are relegated.

Depending on how close that ball park is (wriggle room given by Wembley Cup run revenues all in etc and then commercial/sponsorship boosts for 2019/20 back in the PL at a higher rate than Championship, on relegation (as long as we DO HAVE sensible wage reductions/bonus reductions))......

-----
Guesswork and assumptions....don't take as truth!
-----

Whilst we might only have circa £10m to spend on relegation (extra leverage through owner capital + the next batch of players coming off our books), it's actually possible to my untrained eye that we might not need a single sale to be FFP compliant in 2020/21 back in the Championship.

I was actually expecting a slightly higher loss given the equity put in, and taking out the RL £30m, I am quietly delighted with that given where we started 2019/20.

That RL £30m is not counted in FFP. I also don't believe the promotion related bonuses would fall under FFP either - certainly not any applicable sum for compliance/VAR introduction etc.

Ipsofacto - for me - we went into 2019/20 with an FFP profit surplus (as opposed to a remaining debt) thanks to our stadium shenanigans. Now, that wouldn't follow forward as a credit (I don't think) but it means our 2019/20 spending started at a true zero sum for this year + the benefit of 2016/17 falling off our next assessment - so we were already ahead, and in roughly only spending what we gain from the PL (give or take), on relegation we again begin 2020/21 on a zero sum + the benefit of losing 2017/18 from the next equation come the end of 2020/21 and that's where we get the wriggle room to not sell, even if we can only minimally buy.

Again though folks, pure guesswork on my part here - I'm not a numbers whiz as you should ably know by now and I haven't even gandered the full accounts yet - I'm just pulling my own assumptions together given where we thought we might be with the added bonus of some real figures for last season.

Hope that makes sense - one of those where it makes sense to me, but I'm not sure if I've been clear enough?
So are you saying if we got relegated we could buy Benni McCarthy?
 
LOL Tarzan. I've further edited to try and be more clear in my line of thought but you snuck your reply in too quickly.

But, yes, I 'think' we've put ourselves into the position where relegation means we don't have to sell and can keep the complete group (minus those naturally out of contract) together (for at least the 2020/21 season) BUT the offshoot of that is our spending power would mean short term/Championship experience/2/3 additions only to bolster the group to aid promotion at the first attempt again.

Unless we chose to sell so to speak - it's just the difference between being forced to sell which is where I thought we'd be with one of the Jack/Mings/McGinn.
 
LOL Tarzan. I've further edited to try and be more clear in my line of thought but you snuck your reply in too quickly.

But, yes, I 'think' we've put ourselves into the position where relegation means we don't have to sell and can keep the complete group (minus those naturally out of contract) together (for at least the 2020/21 season) BUT the offshoot of that is our spending power would mean short term/Championship experience/2/3 additions only to bolster the group to aid promotion at the first attempt again.

Unless we chose to sell so to speak - it's just the difference between being forced to sell which is where I thought we'd be with one of the Jack/Mings/McGinn.

Or we just pay the fine
 
We have gone from pimping out Grealish for £3m/Onohua and being bankrupt to being debt free along with ability to keep all our players(some are still shit) if we drop into the Championship. I’d take that all day long. On the other hand we could stay in the premiership and win the Carabao cup and qualify for Europe.
 
We have gone from pimping out Grealish for £3m/Onohua and being bankrupt to being debt free along with ability to keep all our players(some are still shit) if we drop into the Championship. I’d take that all day long. On the other hand we could stay in the premiership and win the Carabao cup and qualify for Europe.

Yup - again, no guarantees I'm right here, but that's my feeling looking at the headline figures tonight mate. I'd take that all day long as if I'm even close, it's a better position (on relegation) than I thought we were in as again, I thought our losses would be higher to begin with.

Stay in the Prem and we really are looking at 3/4 quality/bigger money or at least better chance of success additions for me - Cup win on top (I really don't know how the EL figures here on a win - I don't think it puts us into that boat with Man City) but that would be massive jam given where we are.
 
If we go down I can see us keeping hold of Mings and McGinn. Mings has hardly distinguished himself as a top premier league centre half and based on performances there will be no one willing to pay a decent mark up on the £26m we spent on him.

McGinn, unless he comes back into the side and really excels has had a patchy season and a lengthy injury.

Grealish aside the biggest flight risks I see are Nakamba and Luiz. Nakamba for me has played well and in a better side would look similar to Gueye. Luiz I could see forcing a move more than anything as he strikes me as the sort who at this stage in his career would not want to play in the championship.
 
Oh and just for clarity - the £30m coughed to RL which goes down as an exceptional item is £30m of that announced debt. So taking in promotion bonuses/costs which would include any necessary PL compliance/VAR camera installation etc (stated at £45m in total) - we are incredibly healthy financially (given where we were) and not least on an FFP front heading into the 2019/20 season.

So all things balanced, given we've spent roughly what the PL year would give us in revenue for players, for FFP, even on relegation we're in a solid break even ball park going into next year (my guess) even if we are relegated.

Depending on how close that ball park is (wriggle room given by Wembley Cup run revenues all in etc and then commercial/sponsorship boosts for 2019/20 back in the PL at a higher rate than Championship, on relegation (as long as we DO HAVE sensible wage reductions/bonus reductions))......

-----
Guesswork and assumptions....don't take as truth!
-----

Whilst we might only have circa £10m to spend on relegation (extra leverage through owner capital + the next batch of players coming off our books), it's actually possible to my untrained eye that we might not need a single sale to be FFP compliant in 2020/21 back in the Championship.

I was actually expecting a slightly higher loss given the equity put in, and taking out the RL £30m, I am quietly delighted with that given where we started 2018/19.

That RL £30m is not counted in FFP. I also don't believe the promotion related bonuses would fall under FFP either - certainly not any applicable sum for compliance/VAR introduction etc.

Ipsofacto - for me - we went into 2019/20 with an FFP profit surplus (as opposed to a remaining debt) thanks to our stadium shenanigans. Now, that wouldn't follow forward as a credit (I don't think) but it means our 2019/20 spending started at a true zero sum for this year + the benefit of 2016/17 falling off our next assessment - so we were already ahead, and in roughly only spending what we gain from the PL (give or take), on relegation we again begin 2020/21 on a zero sum + the benefit of losing 2017/18 from the next equation come the end of 2020/21 and that's where we get the wriggle room to not sell, even if we can only minimally buy.

Again though folks, pure guesswork on my part here - I'm not a numbers whiz as you should ably know by now and I haven't even gandered the full accounts yet - I'm just pulling my own assumptions together given where we thought we might be with the added bonus of some real figures for last season.

Hope that makes sense - one of those where it makes sense to me, but I'm not sure if I've been clear enough?

So, yes, we could've spent significantly more in the summer and January and still be safe on an FFP front for 2019/20 specifically - but spending more then requires/guarantees sales if we drop again.

As speculated before - I think we've run the tightrope of spending enough to survive by the skin on our balls, whilst massively offsetting the risk of sales and a bigger rebuild should we drop and at least on these numbers, I think we've run the numbers close enough to at least give ourselves the choice on Jack/Mings/Grealish without our hand being forced by finances.

But of course, that naturally means we could've done more this season to improve our chances - yet with no guarantee more spending would equal an improvement in our chances.
This post is a reason I have lurked for so many years without joining the masses, way above ones pay grade, I assume you are on about the good Dr ..(please)
 
This post is a reason I have lurked for so many years without joining the masses, way above ones pay grade, I assume you are on about the good Dr ..(please)
Welcome matey, but please anything that resembles the chance of a compliment in my direction is frowned upon here!

I often ramble and rarely make sense at my first attempt, so any questions more than pipe up and ask.

Yes, good tweeter is Dr Xia - sums up my thoughts in that direction without getting myself a ban! lol