The Population Problem | Page 6 | Vital Football

The Population Problem

BodyButter

Vital Football Legend
Do you think that’s been a reason why their economy stagnated for so long?
Yes, their population peaked in the 90s. They have tried various rounds of quantitative easing but the easy gains of infrastructure development was completed in the 90s. There is no way back for Japan. That doesn't mean that Japanese individuals will have a terrible future but as a global power, Japan is cooked.
 

danvilla2

Vital Football Legend
Yes conventional monetary policy tools will have been exhausted. BOE has been briefing banks on the possibility of a negative rate. Things will get very unconventional.
They have to avoid a run on the banks, where you have to weigh up the safety and convenience of having the money in an account that charges you. It could be a move that works on small negative rates, because I’d rather pay a small amount to have the security of money in a bank account rather than under my bed.
 

Pangloss

Vital Football Hero
They have to avoid a run on the banks, where you have to weigh up the safety and convenience of having the money in an account that charges you. It could be a move that works on small negative rates, because I’d rather pay a small amount to have the security of money in a bank account rather than under my bed.
Yes this will be it, the days of free current/ savings accounts will be long gone. That's how it will be passed on to customers.
 

danvilla2

Vital Football Legend
Yes, their population peaked in the 90s. They have tried various rounds of quantitative easing but the easy gains of infrastructure development was completed in the 90s. There is no way back for Japan. That doesn't mean that Japanese individuals will have a terrible future but as a global power, Japan is cooked.
Countries and empires have a turn at the top, I don’t think any country has had a turn at the top, and come back have they? China will overtake the US, perhaps India catches up with China one day, then it might evolve to continental powers if country powers are exhausted?
 

CDX_EIRE

Vital Football Hero
It's a mystery to me why anyone would want to come and live in this hellhole :shrug:
If you could get the average moron to understand that they might be a bit nicer to foreigners. People are mostly leaving terrible situations or the depression of no hope and no future.

I am a weak case for it but I left Ireland as an economic migrant to America. I didn't see a future in Ireland and I still can't. People went from burying their shite in the backyard to having solar panels on their roofs in the space of 50-60 years in Ireland. There is something just inherently wrong with the country.

UK, America, Canada, and Australia were the big bright lights and gave us better futures. Ireland is by no mean a poor or unfortunate country. Its a beacon for many eastern European and other nations but its a bit of a shit tip for my ambitions. I love Ireland, I really do but its a hard place to live right now.

A bedroom in a house in my town rents for $1,000. I was paying $1,000 in rent for a room in a house in Brooklyn. Its mental. And I was paid double the salary in America vs. if I was doing the same thing in Dublin with really difficult paths to get promotion.
 

Pangloss

Vital Football Hero
Countries and empires have a turn at the top, I don’t think any country has had a turn at the top, and come back have they? China will overtake the US, perhaps India catches up with China one day, then it might evolve to continental powers if country powers are exhausted?
Won't happen we'll all be in Chinese concentration camps when they establish their dominance.
 

danvilla2

Vital Football Legend
[
If you could get the average moron to understand that they might be a bit nicer to foreigners. People are mostly leaving terrible situations or the depression of no hope and no future.

I am a weak case for it but I left Ireland as an economic migrant to America. I didn't see a future in Ireland and I still can't. People went from burying their shite in the backyard to having solar panels on their roofs in the space of 50-60 years in Ireland. There is something just inherently wrong with the country.

UK, America, Canada, and Australia were the big bright lights and gave us better futures. Ireland is by no mean a poor or unfortunate country. Its a beacon for many eastern European and other nations but its a bit of a shit tip for my ambitions. I love Ireland, I really do but its a hard place to live right now.

A bedroom in a house in my town rents for $1,000. I was paying $1,000 in rent for a room in a house in Brooklyn. Its mental. And I was paid double the salary in America vs. if I was doing the same thing in Dublin with really difficult paths to get promotion.
Funny isn’t it how we all go places where we see the bright lights. My cousins are both in Dublin, as there are lots of innovative tech and gambling companies over there. Rent is pretty high in Dublin as are house prices, last time I was there I was talking to a Latvian (I think) taxi driver who had moved over 7 years ago or so and was saying he was glad he bought then as he’d be paying a premium to rent with the way prices are. My perception of Dublin is a trendy city with good opportunities, albeit a compact city.
 

mike_field

Vital Football Legend
China has introduced The Three Child policy. Obviously, after The Two Child policy failed. I'm sure the Three Child policy will be a spectacular success. I don't know about you but I can't wait for The Four Child policy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...unces-three-child-limit-in-major-policy-shift
The worry is when they realise they've gone the other way and decide to resort to a one child policy again. Nowt like effectively using your population as slaves is it.
 

BodyButter

Vital Football Legend
The worry is when they realise they've gone the other way and decide to resort to a one child policy again. Nowt like effectively using your population as slaves is it.
I think that ship has sailed. The two child policy didn't make any difference. Modern Chinese people don't even want two kids. Allowing them to have three kids just isn't going to move the needle.

When their population starts falling, we are going to see some interesting things.
 

mike_field

Vital Football Legend
I think that ship has sailed. The two child policy didn't make any difference. Modern Chinese people don't even want two kids. Allowing them to have three kids just isn't going to move the needle.

When their population starts falling, we are going to see some interesting things.
My thinking was when it gets to 5/6 and people aren't taking it up, they'll mandate it as part of citizenship and have to roll it back again - I'm guessing my thinking is similar to yours in another decade or two.
 

BodyButter

Vital Football Legend
My thinking was when it gets to 5/6 and people aren't taking it up, they'll mandate it as part of citizenship and have to roll it back again - I'm guessing my thinking is similar to yours in another decade or two.
They rolled out all kinds of incentives in Singapore but it hasn't make any difference.

I'm not sure even the CCP could compel women to have children but if anyone was going to try, it would be them.
 

CDX_EIRE

Vital Football Hero
They rolled out all kinds of incentives in Singapore but it hasn't make any difference.

I'm not sure even the CCP could compel women to have children but if anyone was going to try, it would be them.
What were they, out of curiosity?

I am hopeful of having a child in about 2 years or so however having moved NYC to the Bay Area I am starting to wonder how we'll make even 1 work. We'd honestly love to have between 2 and 4. Financially I dont know how we'll make it happen.

I earn good money, enough for both of us to live and for her to go to school but still take out loans. She is in a PhD program so we're landlocked to California for the next 4 years. The following 2 allow us to move as she'll do residency but the most likely place I see that being is NYC.

You can't incentivize anyone without having quality child care and education. Thats the 2+2 I've put together and just giving money to people creates automatic inflation. $12,000 back per year per child in tax breaks? Oh child care and tuition fee's suddenly spiked 50-100% how interesting.

I was researching earlier actually, creche is ballpark $2,000 a month for 0-2 and $1,800 for 2-5. Private elementary school is $12,000 per year but can run to $15,000. $20,000 for High School. We can get away with one on my current salary but two needs to be me increasing my wage by 30% and her getting 6 figure minimum.

We just have to get out of these next 4 years unscathed. We're lucky too thats the most amazing part of it.

Also its worth saying its an alien concept to me but I am on board because its rammed down my throat that private is the only way unless your area is amazing. I grew up on a council estate, I went to national schools, got a government-funded degree and cheap visa to America and I work in an incredibly in-demand (but cyclical) profession. I've took a path as alien to her as the one my kids will take to me.
 

BodyButter

Vital Football Legend
What were they, out of curiosity?

I am hopeful of having a child in about 2 years or so however having moved NYC to the Bay Area I am starting to wonder how we'll make even 1 work. We'd honestly love to have between 2 and 4. Financially I dont know how we'll make it happen.

I earn good money, enough for both of us to live and for her to go to school but still take out loans. She is in a PhD program so we're landlocked to California for the next 4 years. The following 2 allow us to move as she'll do residency but the most likely place I see that being is NYC.

You can't incentivize anyone without having quality child care and education. Thats the 2+2 I've put together and just giving money to people creates automatic inflation. $12,000 back per year per child in tax breaks? Oh child care and tuition fee's suddenly spiked 50-100% how interesting.

I was researching earlier actually, creche is ballpark $2,000 a month for 0-2 and $1,800 for 2-5. Private elementary school is $12,000 per year but can run to $15,000. $20,000 for High School. We can get away with one on my current salary but two needs to be me increasing my wage by 30% and her getting 6 figure minimum.

We just have to get out of these next 4 years unscathed. We're lucky too thats the most amazing part of it.

Also its worth saying its an alien concept to me but I am on board because its rammed down my throat that private is the only way unless your area is amazing. I grew up on a council estate, I went to national schools, got a government-funded degree and cheap visa to America and I work in an incredibly in-demand (but cyclical) profession. I've took a path as alien to her as the one my kids will take to me.
It was all maternity leave and child care stuff. I'm sure there were increased tax allowances too but even a $12,000 tax allowance isn't going to put a dent in the cost of having kids. A big issue in Singapore is housing. They have a lot of small apartments. Having 4 young kids in a small apartment must be a nightmare.

We are lucky that my wife can stay home and look after the kids. I don't think that would be possible if we moved home. For a lot of my friends, both parents work but the wife's salary barely covers the childcare. I guess your situation will be different when Mrs Eire gets her PhD.
 

BodyButter

Vital Football Legend
One take on the recent sabre rattling over Taiwan is that China will never be able to invade Taiwan because the can't afford the casualties. China doesn't have a social welfare system. Parents invest everything in their kids and the kids are expected to look after the parents (physically and financially) when they get older. Every Chinese soldier has 2 parents and possibly 4 grandparents depending on them. If he is married and the wife isn't working, that's possibly 1 wife, 4 parents and 1 child (maybe even living grandparents) all depending on the income from that soldier.

China would win a war against Taiwan (assuming the Americans don't jump in) but the price is way too high and that squeeze is only getting started.
 

kefkat

Vital Football Legend
I see alot of people, British born moving out of The U.K.

Two of our four have moved to another country. One is in Canada and the other in N.Z Two have stayed here. One at home and one 20 minutes away by car.

If our life had worked out differently Mr K.K and I would have moved to Kefelonia. Not to be. We are lucky cos we get to spend extended time there. Well pre pandemic we did. Hopes for next year 🤞

I don't blame anyone moving out of the U.K. I think the majority are going for a spiritual quieter life than the one here

It's my country of birth; however its been washed up for years. I'm grateful for what we get here however the days of a "Great Britain are long gone

It's made easier to live here in York because its a beautiful city. It'd not as small as a villlage nor like living in a big city so we are more cut off from the realities of city life and deprivation.

The worse social housing area in York looks like Henley on Thames in London by compare to an average area in an inner city
 

astonion2

Vital Squad Member
I see alot of people, British born moving out of The U.K.

Two of our four have moved to another country. One is in Canada and the other in N.Z Two have stayed here. One at home and one 20 minutes away by car.

If our life had worked out differently Mr K.K and I would have moved to Kefelonia. Not to be. We are lucky cos we get to spend extended time there. Well pre pandemic we did. Hopes for next year 🤞

I don't blame anyone moving out of the U.K. I think the majority are going for a spiritual quieter life than the one here

It's my country of birth; however its been washed up for years. I'm grateful for what we get here however the days of a "Great Britain are long gone

It's made easier to live here in York because its a beautiful city. It'd not as small as a villlage nor like living in a big city so we are more cut off from the realities of city life and deprivation.

The worse social housing area in York looks like Henley on Thames in London by compare to an average area in an inner city
I am British and proud to be. I totally disagree with you stating that the country is washed up. I believe that it is still the greatest country in the world and millions of non British would agree with me. So far more than five and half million EU citizens have applied for settled status and the government have extended the time to apply because they are still receiving 10000 application a day. Why because all these people would rather live in the UK than live in the EU.
Having worked with many from the EU I think its great that they want to stay. Many have bought houses and had children born in this country. The children consider themselves as British. I also have a couple of good friends from out side the EU, one is Russian and married to an English bloke. They have two lovely children and she has told me she has no desire to ever leave this country.
I think sometimes some take for granted just what we have got in this country and I would never consider going somewhere else.
 

kefkat

Vital Football Legend
I am British and proud to be. I totally disagree with you stating that the country is washed up. I believe that it is still the greatest country in the world and millions of non British would agree with me. So far more than five and half million EU citizens have applied for settled status and the government have extended the time to apply because they are still receiving 10000 application a day. Why because all these people would rather live in the UK than live in the EU.
Having worked with many from the EU I think its great that they want to stay. Many have bought houses and had children born in this country. The children consider themselves as British. I also have a couple of good friends from out side the EU, one is Russian and married to an English bloke. They have two lovely children and she has told me she has no desire to ever leave this country.
I think sometimes some take for granted just what we have got in this country and I would never consider going somewhere else.
I'm not proud of my homeland. Then I think we stand on opposite sides of the Brexit debate which is another thread I won't get into here.

I'm not proud of living in a country that since 2016 has shown the xenophobia, racism and intolerance it has this government has stoked

Your right that millions of people have applied for settled status. There is also millions who have gone home and don't want to stay here because of the way certain groups are treating them.

Then there are those who have been turned down on ludicrous ground which is another Windrush. Some of those turned down are Drs and the like which is mad.

I'm also not proud of the ignorance and hatred that is poured out to people in desperate situations wanting to come here.

I can say I love where I live in York and wouldn't want to live anywhere else in the U.K, for sure. Its my adopted home city in the U K. I have lived here 30 years.

As for thinking that we are the best country in the world, bar where all the wars are happening obviously, I don't think any country is better than another. Its just preference as to where we prefer to live.