The Population Problem | Page 5 | Vital Football

The Population Problem

#81
My wife's Japanese friend is paying someone to live in her mother's house in Japan so that the place doesn't fall apart.

Is negative rent going to be a feature of the future?
My Daughter's outlaws have 5 houses 4 are empty because he can't be arsed to get a tenant as they are too much hassle. so they sit there gaining value and doing very little else. (He owns them outright ) uses them as an investment on his money
 

danvilla2

Vital Football Legend
#82
My Daughter's outlaws have 5 houses 4 are empty because he can't be arsed to get a tenant as they are too much hassle. so they sit there gaining value and doing very little else. (He owns them outright ) uses them as an investment on his money
I can imagine the capital gains are worth more than the income, rent might seem a lot to the renter but when you take off the mortgage, insurance and other costs it might not always be worth it to some. Although I would at least go for the contribution

The reproduction rate in young females I read this morning was 1.6, so for every couple there is a small decline in children.

The youth of today have to lock themselves away to afford a deposit for a house as asset prices are so high, but do earn decent salaries hence why they decide to save a few grand to travel around the world rather than needing ten times that amount for a deposit.

If capital prices were more reasonable like in the good old days where you had 100% mortgages and a few £k for fees, surely people would settle down and reproduce quicker?

Although I don’t know the solution to the population decline and the benefit on the environment is greater than the economical danger surely in the long run, investment in technology must be the future. Could you run care homes more efficiently with half the staff with better technology?
 

Pangloss

Vital Football Hero
#83
I can imagine the capital gains are worth more than the income, rent might seem a lot to the renter but when you take off the mortgage, insurance and other costs it might not always be worth it to some. Although I would at least go for the contribution

The reproduction rate in young females I read this morning was 1.6, so for every couple there is a small decline in children.

The youth of today have to lock themselves away to afford a deposit for a house as asset prices are so high, but do earn decent salaries hence why they decide to save a few grand to travel around the world rather than needing ten times that amount for a deposit.

If capital prices were more reasonable like in the good old days where you had 100% mortgages and a few £k for fees, surely people would settle down and reproduce quicker?

Although I don’t know the solution to the population decline and the benefit on the environment is greater than the economical danger surely in the long run, investment in technology must be the future. Could you run care homes more efficiently with half the staff with better technology?
The book 'Limits to Growth' is a pretty interesting read in this respect. Aggregate global population growth severely depletes resources (food, land, non-renewable energy etc) leading to a rise in the death rate over the longer run, driving populations downward. The authors also talk in detail about declining growth in capital.

Most of the economics orthodoxy panned the book and continued to be overly optimistic in their growth models vis-à-vis the importance of innovation, ideas and technical solutions to over come all of this (e.g. Romer growth model, Solow growth model etc).
 
#84
I can imagine the capital gains are worth more than the income, rent might seem a lot to the renter but when you take off the mortgage, insurance and other costs it might not always be worth it to some. Although I would at least go for the contribution

The reproduction rate in young females I read this morning was 1.6, so for every couple there is a small decline in children.

The youth of today have to lock themselves away to afford a deposit for a house as asset prices are so high, but do earn decent salaries hence why they decide to save a few grand to travel around the world rather than needing ten times that amount for a deposit.

If capital prices were more reasonable like in the good old days where you had 100% mortgages and a few £k for fees, surely people would settle down and reproduce quicker?

Although I don’t know the solution to the population decline and the benefit on the environment is greater than the economical danger surely in the long run, investment in technology must be the future. Could you run care homes more efficiently with half the staff with better technology?
I think it's the modern way Dan, people are having kids in their 30's these days, leaving fulltime education later means they get married 6 years later have kids later and have become sensible about the number of kids they can afford.
(certain religions and classes accepted of course as they still knock kids out as a hobby)
 

BodyButter

Vital Football Legend
#85
My Daughter's outlaws have 5 houses 4 are empty because he can't be arsed to get a tenant as they are too much hassle. so they sit there gaining value and doing very little else. (He owns them outright ) uses them as an investment on his money
That's the thing, isn't it? We've grown accustomed to ever increasing property prices. I think that will very soon be a thing of the past.
 
#86
That's the thing, isn't it? We've grown accustomed to ever increasing property prices. I think that will very soon be a thing of the past.
Don't get me wrong i have no sympathy for anyone who buys property as an investment and loses money, serves them right most people buy a house to live in. They do however for some reason expect inflation to "Pay the Mortgage."
Inflation is bad in my view, most caused by greed. Imagine if a house was 100k and you paid it off over 25 years and it cost you 300k but was only then worth 50k brilliant but the expect it to be 300k in 25 years so they buy it.
 

Fulford

Vital Football Legend
#87
No, no, much better to just blame the bloody foreigners for everything!
I blame them for my son and his girlfriend losing their jobs. The place they worked at is mainly managed by east europeans who just happen to keep on all the other east europeans and get rid of the brits. Since freedom of movement happened half the town stores here have closed. When you speak to the owners and managers of those closed stores and ask them why, the answer is always the same they are sick of the level of shoplifting from the Romanians and other east europeans who treat thieving as if it's a career and have made their businesses unsustainable. Plenty of proof to back this up when you read the local court reports.

Freedom of movement was the worst thing that happened in my area and was the reason why the Brexit vote around here was one of the biggest majorities in the country.
 

danvilla2

Vital Football Legend
#89
I think it's the modern way Dan, people are having kids in their 30's these days, leaving fulltime education later means they get married 6 years later have kids later and have become sensible about the number of kids they can afford.
(certain religions and classes accepted of course as they still knock kids out as a hobby)
You almost described me there, except the marriage bit - she needs something to play for to keep her in line.

From talking to my in law, and judging by from my old man who was an operations director at a medium sized company, they both have barely any qualifications except school GCSE equivalents. Both have done pretty well in their own right, yet the generation today need good qualifications to get off the ground - not in all cases - but I would say in most trades it’s very important. I had to study for 3 years after uni for mine, like you say it puts everything else on hold especially as you earn shit money whilst doing it, so I don’t blame people for preferring travel over settling down.
 

BodyButter

Vital Football Legend
#90
You almost described me there, except the marriage bit - she needs something to play for to keep her in line.

From talking to my in law, and judging by from my old man who was an operations director at a medium sized company, they both have barely any qualifications except school GCSE equivalents. Both have done pretty well in their own right, yet the generation today need good qualifications to get off the ground - not in all cases - but I would say in most trades it’s very important. I had to study for 3 years after uni for mine, like you say it puts everything else on hold especially as you earn shit money whilst doing it, so I don’t blame people for preferring travel over settling down.
How many kids do you have, Dan?
 
#91
You almost described me there, except the marriage bit - she needs something to play for to keep her in line.

From talking to my in law, and judging by from my old man who was an operations director at a medium sized company, they both have barely any qualifications except school GCSE equivalents. Both have done pretty well in their own right, yet the generation today need good qualifications to get off the ground - not in all cases - but I would say in most trades it’s very important. I had to study for 3 years after uni for mine, like you say it puts everything else on hold especially as you earn shit money whilst doing it, so I don’t blame people for preferring travel over settling down.
I did a 4-year apprenticeship in conjunction with 4 years at College, now someone with a degree in business studies or Art is seen as better than me. Really pisses me off the whole system these days, people with degrees that wouldn't have even stayed on for A levels in my day, you wouldn't have got the chance, even if you'd known about such things.
I have great admiration for someone with a degree in Engineering and goes on to be a Chartered Engineer (if they went to the right Uni of course) don't get me wrong but even some of those couldn't wire a plug or change a wheel.
My City and Guilds have been devalued these days to the point where I got a C&G in Heath and safety without doing any research at all about 10 years ago.
They have lowered the standards, not increased the quality. To the point, even a thick fecker like me has 2 kids with Degrees :shake:
 

Pangloss

Vital Football Hero
#93
That's the thing, isn't it? We've grown accustomed to ever increasing property prices. I think that will very soon be a thing of the past.
I've been thinking this for a long time but hasn't happened. Will need some pretty dramatic stuff demand side to happen, such as substantial interest rate rises (which won't happen for a long time) or an incredible economic collapse leaving many millions unemployed (more likely to happen).
 

danvilla2

Vital Football Legend
#94
I did a 4-year apprenticeship in conjunction with 4 years at College, now someone with a degree in business studies or Art is seen as better than me. Really pisses me off the whole system these days, people with degrees that wouldn't have even stayed on for A levels in my day, you wouldn't have got the chance, even if you'd known about such things.
I have great admiration for someone with a degree in Engineering and goes on to be a Chartered Engineer (if they went to the right Uni of course) don't get me wrong but even some of those couldn't wire a plug or change a wheel.
My City and Guilds have been devalued these days to the point where I got a C&G in Heath and safety without doing any research at all about 10 years ago.
They have lowered the standards, not increased the quality. To the point, even a thick fecker like me has 2 kids with Degrees :shake:
A sales guy I work with who is very good at his job, came out of education straight into the workplace and has worked his way up to a top 6 sales position - he’s just taken on an MBA because it was career limiting not having a degree.

The thing with qualifications now is that if you have a job with 100 applicants, you can whittle it down based on qualifications to 20 based on what criteria you put on it . Even though you might whittle out some people who are good and deserve an interview, statistically it makes hiring easier.
 

Pangloss

Vital Football Hero
#95
You almost described me there, except the marriage bit - she needs something to play for to keep her in line.

From talking to my in law, and judging by from my old man who was an operations director at a medium sized company, they both have barely any qualifications except school GCSE equivalents. Both have done pretty well in their own right, yet the generation today need good qualifications to get off the ground - not in all cases - but I would say in most trades it’s very important. I had to study for 3 years after uni for mine, like you say it puts everything else on hold especially as you earn shit money whilst doing it, so I don’t blame people for preferring travel over settling down.
The low hanging fruit is programming at this stage and people don't need a computer science degree to become solid web developers and even software engineers.

It's actually not that hard to learn how to code and there's an insane amount of resources out there to get going on it for free, most people just lack the attention and ability to stick with it and figure out the learning style which works for them best.

These skills are still in pretty limited supply, command good salaries and most companies are well ahead of the curve in terms of remote learning.
 
#96
A sales guy I work with who is very good at his job, came out of education straight into the workplace and has worked his way up to a top 6 sales position - he’s just taken on an MBA because it was career limiting not having a degree.

The thing with qualifications now is that if you have a job with 100 applicants, you can whittle it down based on qualifications to 20 based on what criteria you put on it . Even though you might whittle out some people who are good and deserve an interview, statistically it makes hiring easier.
Exactly that's why I was contracting because even with 40 years Engineering experience JLR only take people with a degree, you can't even apply online for a job in Engineering.

My Agent said don't worry about it they want some people who can actually do the job! That's how I got in, as I'm currently not qualified to do stuff I've done for 40 years. Like you say you have to sort things by CV and a bimbo in HR thinks a degree is the be all and end-all. Engineering recruiters know their stuff thankfully.

Ironically I've interviewed and given about 10 people a permy role. Pure luck their CV made it to my desk and not the bin in HR. I had two rules no Bluenose and no ex-army fitters. Don't ask
 

BodyButter

Vital Football Legend
#97
I've been thinking this for a long time but hasn't happened. Will need some pretty dramatic stuff demand side to happen, such as substantial interest rate rises (which won't happen for a long time) or an incredible economic collapse leaving many millions unemployed (more likely to happen).
We are talking about Japanese-style population decline.
 

danvilla2

Vital Football Legend
#98
I've been thinking this for a long time but hasn't happened. Will need some pretty dramatic stuff demand side to happen, such as substantial interest rate rises (which won't happen for a long time) or an incredible economic collapse leaving many millions unemployed (more likely to happen).
An economic collapse which low interest rates or printing money can’t support, because of the economic collapse from consumer debt becoming unmanageable and unliveable?

I did read something a while ago which suggested current methods of reducing the impact of recessions might not work, perhaps the next one were better off letting hit full on, wiping out trillions but re-basing?

Whilst we have dropped into severe recession during COVID, I think COVID is a cash cycle problem and not a credit problem, which are too different things - luckily the cash cycle problem is short term as tough as it is for some.
 

Pangloss

Vital Football Hero
An economic collapse which low interest rates or printing money can’t support, because of the economic collapse from consumer debt becoming unmanageable and unliveable?

I did read something a while ago which suggested current methods of reducing the impact of recessions might not work, perhaps the next one were better off letting hit full on, wiping out trillions but re-basing?

Whilst we have dropped into severe recession during COVID, I think COVID is a cash cycle problem and not a credit problem, which are too different things - luckily the cash cycle problem is short term as tough as it is for some.
Yes conventional monetary policy tools will have been exhausted. BOE has been briefing banks on the possibility of a negative rate. Things will get very unconventional.