The Population Problem | Page 3 | Vital Football

The Population Problem

I've been mulling over this topic recently trying to figure out the implications. I think one of them will be that healthy, functioning human beings will be increasingly more valuable as time goes on. Hopefully, that will spur more investment into public health and mental health facilities. Those homeless people who we have abandoned will be seen as a vital resource being neglected rather than a burden.

There are two possible ways that the debt problem could go, either taxes are raised and raised on a continually shrinking workforce to pay off the debt or the debt is defaulted on. That would be something like a global default but it would mean banks going bust and pension funds being wiped out.

It will also mean that services and products for the elderly will be more and more in demand. High end products and services for kids will grow too but the bottom will fall out of the mid to lower end, something like what's happened in the watch industry.

Property will be down or stagnant in general but increasing urbanisation will mean that property in cities will continue to increase in price. That will be balanced out by falling property values in rural areas.

The Middle East will become more peaceful but stagnant economically. Iran will continue its acrimonious relationship with the Arabs but the possibility of war is extremely low. As Saudi loses its position of importance in the world and the oil market becomes irrelevant, increasing Arab unity will be talked up but largely token gestures.

The US is likely to withdraw from its role as world police taking it's navy with it leaving shipping dependent nations like Australia and China vulnerable to piracy and sabotage on the high seas. The cost of shipping will increase dramatically as lawlessness returns to the high seas.

China is due for a big bust within the next few years. Their debt to GDP is around 100% now and the tide is turning against them trade wise. This is a huge challenge to the CCP who have built their legitimacy on economic growth. The stories of how dysfunctional the Chinese economy really is will be interesting. Expect violent clashes between the armed forces and a disillusioned public. The Chinese economy is likely to stagnate for a long time (think Japan) post-bust.
 
BodyButter said:
I've been mulling over this topic recently trying to figure out the implications. I think one of them will be that healthy, functioning human beings will be increasingly more valuable as time goes on. Hopefully, that will spur more investment into public health and mental health facilities. Those homeless people who we have abandoned will be seen as a vital resource being neglected rather than a burden.
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Looks like you’ve done a lot of thinking ?

It’s a nice to think that homeless people become a resource that’s needed and can be magically integrated back into society. But what has brought people to it in the first place are the pressures of life getting too much and falling to drink or drug addiction, or the financial cost of life forcing people out. I can’t see a situation where this becomes easier actually as alcohol and drugs will have the same effect in the future as they do now, as do mental and psychological issues. There’s a lot more pressure now in life to compete against other people with social media, but it’s survival of the fittest - which is why we see young men committing suicide.

Cash is becoming less widely used, so the need to be on an electronic banking system is imperative to be recognised and probably more important than a birth certificate nowadays. Once those who fall off the normal way of living in the future, may have it harder to get back on.

The economics of reform don’t work in a capitalist world either. It costs a lot of money to rehabilitate people, and that wouldn’t pay back for a business looking to drive shareholder value. The risk is too high, invest tens of thousands training someone over 6 months, taking up other people’s time, or give the job to someone who applies and wants it? There will always be developing parts of the world where people are willing to work but there aren’t enough jobs to satisfy demand. In the noughties we found excellent workers in eastern Europe but then Brits decided they didn’t like polish accents, in the future I think it’ll come from places like India and Bangladesh.

Unless government or charities can create industry and find such work for these people, perhaps as we grow in recycling maybe this opens up less desirable work for the masses but those less fortunate or homeless people may be willing. I don’t actually believe though you can force people to work, as per my point in the other thread homeless people have to decide for themselves they want to change their life and start work.

BodyButter said:
There are two possible ways that the debt problem could go, either taxes are raised and raised on a continually shrinking workforce to pay off the debt or the debt is defaulted on. That would be something like a global default but it would mean banks going bust and pension funds being wiped out.

It will also mean that services and products for the elderly will be more and more in demand. High end products and services for kids will grow too but the bottom will fall out of the mid to lower end, something like what's happened in the watch industry.

Property will be down or stagnant in general but increasing urbanisation will mean that property in cities will continue to increase in price. That will be balanced out by falling property values in rural areas.
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On the point about companies, I think companies ultimately need to pay more in the long run but government obsession and competition means they aren’t being targeted currently. Income tax is 50% of gross earning for top earners yet corporation tax for the biggest companies in the UK is around 20% on profit - after revenue has been transferred off to some island in the Pacific. The problem here is that governments - none moreso than ours - are toying with corporation tax cuts to attract the jobs that pay the income tax. When I say companies, I sympathise with SME’s and they should get relief from business rates. Big companies need to be paying their fair share and more, which the tax authorities around the world need to hold hands and target more.

Perhaps we get to a situation in the future where governments around the world agree to minimum taxation levels rather than the current race to the bottom? I don’t like these sorts of rules as it takes competition away, but islands which have no tax rates are mean that the populations of big countries are being fleeced and the people are suffering.


BodyButter said:
The Middle East will become more peaceful but stagnant economically. Iran will continue its acrimonious relationship with the Arabs but the possibility of war is extremely low. As Saudi loses its position of importance in the world and the oil market becomes irrelevant, increasing Arab unity will be talked up but largely token gestures.

The US is likely to withdraw from its role as world police taking it's navy with it leaving shipping dependent nations like Australia and China vulnerable to piracy and sabotage on the high seas. The cost of shipping will increase dramatically as lawlessness returns to the high seas.
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Big call on the Middle East. I’m not an expert, but the religious divides within just the Muslim faith seem to automatically create tension, without the meddling of the western world and Russia.

I think these counties are so far under developed, an unhealthy obsession with religion and a lot of propaganda, there will proxy wars for a while in these regions - again, economics dictates there probably will be with the arms and defence contracts at stake for the US and Russians. The U.K. and French do pretty well too...

BodyButter said:
China is due for a big bust within the next few years. Their debt to GDP is around 100% now and the tide is turning against them trade wise. This is a huge challenge to the CCP who have built their legitimacy on economic growth. The stories of how dysfunctional the Chinese economy really is will be interesting. Expect violent clashes between the armed forces and a disillusioned public. The Chinese economy is likely to stagnate for a long time (think Japan) post-bust. China is due for a big bust within the next few years. Their debt to GDP is around 100% now and the tide is turning against them trade wise. This is a huge challenge to the CCP who have built their legitimacy on economic growth. The stories of how dysfunctional the Chinese economy really is will be interesting. Expect violent clashes between the armed forces and a disillusioned public. The Chinese economy is likely to stagnate for a long time (think Japan) post-bust.
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If there’s a bust in the Chinese economy I can’t see there being mass uproar due to the way the system is so engrained and the people don’t know any different. They also know the consequences if they do rebel, and I suspect the Hong Kong dissent has only reinforced their loyalty for Jinping.

China’s double digit growth probably means a significant correction, but I’m not sure that’ll result in a Japanese economy just yet. Central governments and banks like to manage recession, lower interest rates and print money, perhaps they’re better letting it bottom out for two years, correct to rock bottom and start the growth again once the bad business has gone? If Mr Xia can be a multi millionaire from his awful business model which didn’t seem to actually generate anything, maybe it’s not a bad thing.
 
HeathfieldRoad1874 said:
It looks like we should all be employed as economists.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2...el-economist-calls-humanity-end-obsession-gdp

'Everything Is Not Fine': Nobel Economist Calls on Humanity to End Obsession With GDP
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Of course, he is absolutely right. Still, the issue of national debt can't be avoided. When you go to a bank for a loan, they don't care about your environmental work or how nice you are. The only thing they care about is how much money you make and GDP is the way countries measure how much money they make.
 
Was talking to my dad about this today. There was a programme on the evils of meat and that it will destroy the planet. The programme didn't cover about our over population or the damage plants/crops do to the land as well (palm oil plants for instance)

But there are just too many people. In days gone by, I would have died from the brain aches, there woldn't have been operations to 'cure' it. Dad had pneumonia last year, in days gone by, that would have been ta'ra a bit for him.

We've become too clever and making lives longer and helping those who struggle to have babies be able to.

Not sure what the answer is though. They could put me down if they wanted!
 
If McWilliams is right, the same force fuelling the rise of the AFD in Germany must have fuelled Brexit. There was a lot of vague talk of kicking out the immigrants and taking the country back which I never understood. Time for some questions in the Brexit thread.
 
BB has a very good point there for me.

But in the spirit of Melon's post, given we know the working age child growth is shrinking....maybe we should stop glorifying finishing in the mouth, on the breasticles and small of the back?

:eek:
 
mike_field said:
BB has a very good point there for me.

But in the spirit of Melon's post, given we know the working age child growth is shrinking....maybe we should stop glorifying finishing in the mouth, on the breasticles and small of the back?

:eek:
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And face. And feet for some reason. Not into feet, don't get it, but each to their own.
 
mike_field said:
BB has a very good point there for me.

But in the spirit of Melon's post, given we know the working age child growth is shrinking....maybe we should stop glorifying finishing in the mouth, on the breasticles and small of the back?

:eek:
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You are joking but it won't be too long before the politicians start telling people it's their national duty to have more kids. Lie back and think of England, and all that.
 
I think the answer is to send people off to the incinerator when they can no longer work. At an industrial scale we also need to extract and fertilise eggs artificially and then ensure they develop in artificial wombs, completely removing the need for humans to procreate.

Problem solved.
 
The problem with the working ages of today and reproducing, is that assets are inflated to records highs, saving isn’t worth it and so the youth are just spunking it (or creating memories) on travelling around Asia or material goods which depreciate in value as quickly as it took to buy.

Of my close mates - and I’m in my early thirties - only around half have kids and the vast majority have 1 so far. My parents generation were done and dusted by 30 with two or three.

Would the older generation accept a huge downturn in assets now, to allow the youth affordable homes to get on the ladder quicker to encourage them to have kids sooner and therefore more of them?

Probably not because they don’t want to be taxed or forced to sell what they’ve earned which is fair enough by the way, but it does need more correcting. The poor don’t stand a chance, there’s a generation between 25 and 35 I would say who if they don’t have some wealth handed down are a lost generation when it comes to owning a property and then having kids.
 
danvilla2 said:
Probably not because they don’t want to be taxed or forced to sell what they’ve earned which is fair enough by the way, but it does need more correcting. The poor don’t stand a chance, there’s a generation between 25 and 35 I would say who if they don’t have some wealth handed down are a lost generation when it comes to owning a property and then having kids.
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Specifically speaking about Ireland, the last downturn allowed the vultures to come in and snap up land at a fraction of its cost. Ireland really suffered from this, I couldn't give you the numbers but we went from a lot of domestic land owners to international property owners. Second issue is supply/demand. Banks wouldn't lend so nobody could buy homes and therefore there was no incentive to build houses.

Population grows, supply doesn't increase so as soon as the downturn stops there is now increase demand on supply that has barely moved since it was at its peak.

Construction development drives economies, it employs so many people especially in Ireland but not so much now since so many of us left. Irelands recession was so severe barely any homes were built and now the generation who were hit the most continue to be hit. So yeah you're right we're a bit lost and for most of us the answer was to leave.

To get to the point, it doesnt matter what the older generation wants the corporations hold the keys.
 
CDX_EIRE said:
Specifically speaking about Ireland, the last downturn allowed the vultures to come in and snap up land at a fraction of its cost. Ireland really suffered from this, I couldn't give you the numbers but we went from a lot of domestic land owners to international property owners. Second issue is supply/demand. Banks wouldn't lend so nobody could buy homes and therefore there was no incentive to build houses.

Population grows, supply doesn't increase so as soon as the downturn stops there is now increase demand on supply that has barely moved since it was at its peak.

Construction development drives economies, it employs so many people especially in Ireland but not so much now since so many of us left. Irelands recession was so severe barely any homes were built and now the generation who were hit the most continue to be hit. So yeah you're right we're a bit lost and for most of us the answer was to leave.

To get to the point, it doesnt matter what the older generation wants the corporations hold the keys.
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There is a housing crisis across the developed world. Ireland tends to ignore that. Sinn Fein are right in pushing the issue as it's a very serious issue but it is a global issue. The money from all of those rounds of 'quantitative easing' went into the stock market and property. It means that we have massively overvalued stock markets and massively overvalued property markets around the world, even here in Malaysia.

I suspect that Covid19 is going to be the catalyst for a big recession that was in the pipes anyway. My fear is that there will be more 'quantitative easing' to soften the blow but it's a bullshit policy, inflating assets for the rich and making average Joes poorer.
 
BodyButter said:
L The money from all of those rounds of 'quantitative easing' went into the stock market and property.
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Has this ever been proven, because my belief too is that quantitative easing basically just inflates asset prices over a 6-12 month period. I know we share a view on this, yet governments just keep on turning to it like we turn a tap on to run water.

The banks lend more money, probably to more financial institutions than Limited construction company which is where the loan should be passed on to, for the the hedge fund or whoever to invest - and what do they do? Buy more assets. I don’t know the flow of money but that’s my guess, the bank is able to afford to lend more through the Bank of England rate, and they then (being a capitalist state) choose where the easier funds go.
 
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