The halfway stage | Vital Football

The halfway stage

Holte139

Vital Squad Member
While I was in a turkey, chocolate and birthday cake-fuelled haze last night, I decided to look at some stats on soccerstats.com to see how we were doing. In the threads I've been reading, there seems to be the full range of opinions on here. Either people are optimistic, about where they expected us to be, or feeling pessimistic about the road ahead. I've taken screenshots of 3 things I found interesting.

Screenshot 2019-12-27 at 01.51.15.png

OK, so these things might be influenced by the fact we've played one more game at home and beat Norwich 5-1 at their place, but this confirms what we all knew to some extent. We aren't quite scoring enough goals, and away from home at least, we're conceding far too many, although we're keeping a relatively tight ship at home for a newly promoted side. I imagine that before the Leicester and Southampton games the goals conceded at home stat might have looked quite impressive.

Screenshot 2019-12-27 at 01.45.48.png

Of course, the exact positions of this could change because of the game later tonight, but, as the table currently stands, these are the positions of the teams we've played, and what we've got to come. Our record against the bottom half teams isn't too shabby, but against the top half it's very poor. Most of the teams around us we now have to play away, and we have to bring most of the top half back to Villa Park. There's a crumb of comfort in that IMO, as most of those sides are better at home than they are away.

Screenshot 2019-12-27 at 01.52.08.png

Lastly, here's a comparison of how we're doing now compared to 19 games in the Prem since 2010. To me, it looks like we're at a similar level to the teams that managed to stay up narrowly, but I think there's a bit more cause for optimism this time given the ownership/financial situation now.

Hopefully these 3 things are interesting to look at, I thought they might make for some good topics of debate!
 
While I was in a turkey, chocolate and birthday cake-fuelled haze last night, I decided to look at some stats on soccerstats.com to see how we were doing. In the threads I've been reading, there seems to be the full range of opinions on here. Either people are optimistic, about where they expected us to be, or feeling pessimistic about the road ahead. I've taken screenshots of 3 things I found interesting.

View attachment 36901

OK, so these things might be influenced by the fact we've played one more game at home and beat Norwich 5-1 at their place, but this confirms what we all knew to some extent. We aren't quite scoring enough goals, and away from home at least, we're conceding far too many, although we're keeping a relatively tight ship at home for a newly promoted side. I imagine that before the Leicester and Southampton games the goals conceded at home stat might have looked quite impressive.

View attachment 36902

Of course, the exact positions of this could change because of the game later tonight, but, as the table currently stands, these are the positions of the teams we've played, and what we've got to come. Our record against the bottom half teams isn't too shabby, but against the top half it's very poor. Most of the teams around us we now have to play away, and we have to bring most of the top half back to Villa Park. There's a crumb of comfort in that IMO, as most of those sides are better at home than they are away.

View attachment 36903

Lastly, here's a comparison of how we're doing now compared to 19 games in the Prem since 2010. To me, it looks like we're at a similar level to the teams that managed to stay up narrowly, but I think there's a bit more cause for optimism this time given the ownership/financial situation now.

Hopefully these 3 things are interesting to look at, I thought they might make for some good topics of debate!

Pfft, coming round here with your objectivity and statistical analysis! 😄

We want opinions and drama that we don’t agree with each to the point where we’ve put so many people on ignore that the place looks empty apart from your own posts. Now that’s debate sonny Jim 👍😉
 
Excellent post Holte139 :clap:

Thanks Fear!

Pfft, coming round here with your objectivity and statistical analysis! 😄

We want opinions and drama that we don’t agree with each to the point where we’ve put so many people on ignore that the place looks empty apart from your own posts. Now that’s debate sonny Jim 👍😉

I'll try to do better next time 😂

Bit of a gulp that we've beaten Norwich home and away and they are bottom. We really need the double over Watford Brighton Everton and Newcastle for starters

Yeah I agree a few more doubles and we'll be well away. But I still believe we can cause a few upsets against the top half (and Arsenal) with a packed out VP up for it.
 
There's another stat. In the bottom 12 teams in the table, we've scored more goals (25) than any other team except for Arsenal, who've also scored 25. 6 of those 12 teams have scored 20 goals or less. For years we've had problems scoring; Dean has well and truly turned that around.

But of those 12 teams only Southampton, Norwich and Watford have let in more than us (33). Burnley and West Ham have let in 30, the remaining 6 have let in less.

Pretty obvious where we need to improve.

Re the 3rd table above, interesting that we had the most points at this stage (23) in 2011-2012 under McLeish, and were 9th in the table. Was McLeish as bad as we remember him :halo:. There's an interesting report on our 19th match of that season here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/16324977.stm
where one Stephen Ireland starred. Funny old game.
 
There's another stat. In the bottom 12 teams in the table, we've scored more goals (25) than any other team except for Arsenal, who've also scored 25. 6 of those 12 teams have scored 20 goals or less. For years we've had problems scoring; Dean has well and truly turned that around.

But of those 12 teams only Southampton, Norwich and Watford have let in more than us (33). Burnley and West Ham have let in 30, the remaining 6 have let in less.

Pretty obvious where we need to improve.

While I generally agree with the message, a problem with those stats are the outliers e.g. Norwich 5-1 / Southampton 9-0. The results happened but they completely distort the reading.

Everyone wants to boil it down to the simplest easiest possible problem because its then an easy solution but nobody here wants to hear the truth, our problems are multifaceted.

To say its a pure defensive issue is to completely ignore the fact we cannot keep the ball for long periods of time, that is an attack issue as much as anything else. We don't have a problem creating chances, we do have a retention issue and that compounds the defensive problems because we're unable to alleviate pressure.

McGinn and Marv are good players neither of them are good passers, neither are in there to play tippy tappy football and neither re capable of the football Dean played at Bentford. Luiz is a great passer but struggles defensively. Ball retention is as much an issue as Matt Targett at LB or any other scapegoats we resort to.

Edit: I'll just add; we've probably bought poorly in the cold light of day not on an individual basis but on a team basis and how I imagine Dean wanted to play which would be fast incisive football ala Brentford. Picking any 3 of our CMs has a problem they're either lightweight, not able to pass, not able defend or not able to contribute to the attack. Only specific combos in specific games works and I think thats why it looks like we dont know our best 11.
 
While I generally agree with the message, a problem with those stats are the outliers e.g. Norwich 5-1 / Southampton 9-0. The results happened but they completely distort the reading.

Everyone wants to boil it down to the simplest easiest possible problem because its then an easy solution but nobody here wants to hear the truth, our problems are multifaceted.

To say its a pure defensive issue is to completely ignore the fact we cannot keep the ball for long periods of time, that is an attack issue as much as anything else. We don't have a problem creating chances, we do have a retention issue and that compounds the defensive problems because we're unable to alleviate pressure.

McGinn and Marv are good players neither of them are good passers, neither are in there to play tippy tappy football and neither re capable of the football Dean played at Bentford. Luiz is a great passer but struggles defensively. Ball retention is as much an issue as Matt Targett at LB or any other scapegoats we resort to.

Edit: I'll just add; we've probably bought poorly in the cold light of day not on an individual basis but on a team basis and how I imagine Dean wanted to play which would be fast incisive football ala Brentford. Picking any 3 of our CMs has a problem they're either lightweight, not able to pass, not able defend or not able to contribute to the attack. Only specific combos in specific games works and I think thats why it looks like we dont know our best 11.

I don't think we've bought poorly. We bought a load of inexperienced players. Doug is a prime example. He has the makings of a very good player but he often makes poor choices (pushing that Norwich lad over on the edge of the box for example). These players will improve over time as they get more experience in this league. We could definitely do with another CM though.
 
I hoped for 19 points after 19 games. A total of 38 points at the season end and we stay up. We need to beat Watford or Burnley, if we can stay in the mix for hopefully new players coming in we have a chance but it's going to be tough.