The bye elections (n/g) | Page 2 | Vital Football

The bye elections (n/g)

chris who

Vital Football Hero
#26
Just speculation but judging on the turn outs I wonder what percentage of regular Tory voters actually voted ?
A bit of Tactical voting in Tiverton and Honiton should see the Liberal Democrats taking that seat .The Wakefield vote was never really in much doubt Labour were almost guaranteed to take that back.
 

Vambogills

Vital 1st Team Regular
#31
Just speculation but judging on the turn outs I wonder what percentage of regular Tory voters actually voted ?
A bit of Tactical voting in Tiverton and Honiton should see the Liberal Democrats taking that seat .The Wakefield vote was never really in much doubt Labour were almost guaranteed to take that back.
Tory voters choosing to not vote rather than vote Lib Dem I suspect. But to turn over a 40.6% majority is a pretty clear message from our friends in Devon.
 

PuB

Vital Reserves Team
#32
Tory voters choosing to not vote rather than vote Lib Dem I suspect. But to turn over a 40.6% majority is a pretty clear message from our friends in Devon.
There are many Tory voters who don’t mind voting Lib Dem. The scale of the swing in that seat wasn’t because people stayed away I don’t think.

The Labour vote from last time round going to Lib Dem wouldn’t have made any difference on its own
 

chris who

Vital Football Hero
#33
There are many Tory voters who don’t mind voting Lib Dem. The scale of the swing in that seat wasn’t because people stayed away I don’t think.

The Labour vote from last time round going to Lib Dem wouldn’t have made any difference on its own
No I think some were motivated to vote who are non committed. Then the Labour vote who were the second placed last time.The only Tories that might have switched were perhaps remainer voters or those simply hate what Boris has done to their Party.There could have been a small percentage who simply want him out and were willing to see their party lose in order to achieve that.Another factor could have been the strength of the candidates locally.The last aspect is the Liberal Democrat by Election power .Especially in a area of the county where they are traditionally strong which would mean they had some good foot soldiers knocking on doors.
 

Vambogills

Vital 1st Team Regular
#34
There are many Tory voters who don’t mind voting Lib Dem. The scale of the swing in that seat wasn’t because people stayed away I don’t think.
Agree. I would be one of them* and I'm sure plenty did. Witholding your Tory vote is still effective in sending a message.

*If it wasn't for the folly of Brexit led by an coniving charlatan, unfit to be PM. 😉
 

shotshy

Vital Football Hero
#35
That area was solid Brexit, just as the vast majority of other constituencies, so that’s not the case.
It’s the outright lies of Johnson that have contributed to the loss of this seat.
Partygate and the lies after.
The majority of people are decent and can clearly see that Johnson isn’t.
 

jogills

Vital 1st Team Regular
#36
That area was solid Brexit, just as the vast majority of other constituencies, so that’s not the case.
It’s the outright lies of Johnson that have contributed to the loss of this seat.
Partygate and the lies after.
The majority of people are decent and can clearly see that Johnson isn’t.
And his party has wholly failed to get to grips with the cost of living crisis while trumpeting its success. People aren't stupid they don't like Johnson anymore but another tory leader will be a hard sell too. Most of them have defended the indefensible for too long. Trying to pretend that Labour are responsible for the last 12 years is a trick that has been rumbled.

It's worth reminding ourselves that prior to Johnson's Brexit pivot the tories best hope was a narrow majority or more likely a hung parliament.
 

Trashbat

Vital 1st Team Regular
#37
That area was solid Brexit, just as the vast majority of other constituencies, so that’s not the case.
It’s the outright lies of Johnson that have contributed to the loss of this seat.
Partygate and the lies after.
The majority of people are decent and can clearly see that Johnson isn’t.
Agreed. I think, up until now, people have tolerated the lies. But with the economy going to shit, they’re not able to accept the lies any longer.
 

Tarian

Vital Squad Member
#38
Tory voters choosing to not vote rather than vote Lib Dem I suspect. But to turn over a 40.6% majority is a pretty clear message from our friends in Devon.
Yes.
That is a reasonable analysis.

Yesterday, the anti-Cons alliance got 25,260 votes - of which LD 22,540.

Cons slumped to 16,390 - from over 35,000 in 2017 and 2019.
So over 19,000 Cons stayed at home.

Meanwhile, LDs got very few "swing from Cons".
The LDs did hoover up 10,000 from Labour.

In short, don't believe commentators who cite "swings" that exclude "swing to not voting".

FYI, T & D isn't an obvious LD seat.
Labour came second in 2019, 2017 and 2015.
 

chris who

Vital Football Hero
#40
What is clear from these By election is their is a will among those who support the Labour and the Liberal Democrats now to see to it that this government must be defeated. Together we have more than enough support to do it .That I believe is a lesson we can take away from the vote in Tiverton and Honiton.
The Tories aren't the majority of this country. The majority of the Tory members voted for Boris Johnson as their leader knowing he was a liar .It is rare for MPs to be as outspoken as they are about another MPs basic principles. Boris is not fit for office.
Boris and other United enough people to see that Brexit was won .

It is time for the anti Tory alliance to see that this shower is drummed out of office at the earliest opportunity. The only way to guarantee that happening is to fight them together.Devon has shown that this can be done even in the most unlikely places.