The Brexit conundrum | Page 2 | Vital Football

The Brexit conundrum

The other myth that SurreyBob pedals is that we apparently thought we were joining a common market back in 1973. It was always made clear that breaking down trade barriers [in the form of the common market] would pave the way for a more united Europe and, from 1979, Mrs T fought to make sure we had a strong voice in the way the EEC and later the EU developed. I doubt for one minute there will ever be a USE in our lifetime or beyond. Just like in the latest EU referendum people voted with their hearts mainly instead of their heads and the same happened in 1973.
 
We have no idea if we'll be better off or not. As regards the EU having an effect on our law making and constitution, this is a mystery to me; please give examples where these have been impacted other than in matters such as those parts of the EU we have signed up to.
 
One thing that surprises me is that most prexiteers seem to be totally ignoring the forecasts by the Department for leaving the EU. They are very alarming imho

These forecasts are not some cobbled together figures issued when George Osborne was Chancellor. They are the best forecasts we have.
 
Arthurly - 4/3/2018 13:09

One thing that surprises me is that most prexiteers seem to be totally ignoring the forecasts by the Department for leaving the EU. They are very alarming imho

These forecasts are not some cobbled together figures issued when George Osborne was Chancellor. They are the best forecasts we have.
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No they are not. It has been pointed out before that they are based on a worst case scenario with many potentially favourable effects of leaving disregarded. It is far more "could" than "will" happen and the World "could" end tomorrow.
 
Some interesting points .
Bob I find it odd that you have made a living in Europe .But seek to prevent the next generation doing the same .Even if allowed outside the EU UK workers will find opposition and restricted opportunities .
Town end I too work in our he lower end of the market .Yes there are a lot of migrate workers. But if the work hard (which most do )and pay taxes with a ageing workforce we are lucky to have them .Too many English think the country owes them and are not prepared to work hard .Gone are the days when everyone went to work whenever they were able .So I can understand why management have made life more difficult for those who do go off regularly .If we were to work with the EU countries like Poland for example have great potential .I can see in a decade or two EU workers going there for jobs .
I feel that as a country we are at the point where the main political parties have left the centre ground empty .There will be huge swings to the left and right in the coming years .The EU would have brought stability as they have in other countries .Those stabilizer's have now been removed .Many so called experts have looked at Labours spending plans with horror .But in my view the Tories have a instability of their own .I do believe that the pro EU's part of the party will have no natural home post Brexit .They are strangely the majority of the the party in Westminster .
Regardless of the result of brexit I see major problems for this country .With no national benefits at all .Yes there maybe fewer migrated workers but if we lose jobs to a similar level that will not help the country at all .We will end up all far worse off as government seek to fill a ever increasing hole in finances .
 
Well they don't read well to me. If I'd been one of those people from Sunderland who voted for Brexit, and I was told that the best forecast we have of NE England growth, even with a trade deal , is a reduction of 11% in growth, I think I'd be very concerned.

From the BBC

'Following a leak of some of the information to Buzzfeed last week, and political pressure to release it, ministers agreed to allow MPs to see the reports on a confidential basis in the House of Commons library.

In each scenario in the forecasts, growth would be lower, by 2%, 5% and 8% respectively, than currently forecast over a 15-year period.

In north-east England growth would be 3% lower if the UK stayed in the single market, 11% under a trade deal and 16% with no trade deal compared with staying in the EU, the forecast says.

The research suggests London - which backed Remain - would fare the best, with reductions of 1%, 2% and 2.5% in each of the three scenarios.,
 
SurreyBOB - 4/3/2018 12:59

A large proportion of those who voted to join the EEC in 1973 (like my aged parents - two in votes in 1973 two out in 2016) do not like what they signed up for.
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My parents in law were the same but voted out believing we would go back to what it was like pre 73 - it wont the world has changed and they would not want to loose all the changes being a member of the EU has brought us as there has been many benefits

For more than 40 years we have supported the changing EU from a position of influence and power but still retaining our veto on the most important things.

To trade with Europe we will still have to align our laws with theirs but will have no influence on the laws they make.
 
Arthurly, experts don't know what they are talking about. Didn't you know this? It's obvious isn't it?

We seem to be heading for Pol Pot/ Maoist distrust of intellectuals.

Anyway, next time I'm ill I'll get a copy of the Sun and read up on the Stars instead of seeing a doctor.
 
What I find odd about places like Sunderland is that, when canvassed, many were concerned about immigration and yet there are fewer immigrants in that part of the country compared with other regions. So, I stick firmly to my belief that many [a significant minority perhaps] voted 'leave' for the wrong or misguided reasons.
 
Wayne.Kerr - 4/3/2018 12:06

A very erudite commentary on the semantics of leaving the EU, although you haven't said why you voted leave other than references to reducing immigration. I don't think reducing immigration will have any real effect at the lower end of the labour market in terms of low wages especially as farmers are pressing the Govt. to allow seasonal migrant workers, which is likely to happen. I can't comment on your particular situation but many who feel they are overlooked in favour of foreigners could, for example, go into teaching. During training generous tax-free bursaries are paid and there's almost certainly a job at the end of it.
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I do have other reasons for supporting/voting leave but I tried (and failed!) to keep my post simple and to the point. The main point outside of immigration to me is that the "EU 27" (and I'm generalizing here, as a union of 27 individual nations will naturally have differing priorities) and UK, while sharing common interests in many areas, seem to me to have a different view of what they want the EU to be. Is it simply to be a trading block or "An ever closer union?". As the EU has become more integrated, British public opinion, so pro EEC in 1973 has become steadily more hostile. While some of that can be attributed to factors like an anti-EU right wing press I don't think that is all of it. So the future of the EU/UK relationship boils down to two options: A) Further EU integration with Britain dragging it's heels until the EU and UK are basically sick of each other and then at some point in the future public opinion says "enough is enough", by which point leaving is even more difficult to arrange than it is now or B) Leave now, face the consequences in the short term, while co-operating on mutual interests and attempt to make the most of any potential benefits of non-EU trade deals in the long term (and it will be the long term, trade deals are not easily arranged).

As for immigration itself: You make a good point about seasonal workers in agriculture, and if the farming industry isn't to collapse those workers will need to have some sort of "seasonal workers visa". But I do have to wonder, do these workers have to come from inside the EU? Could they be replaced by workers from other parts of the world? The problem with freedom of movement for me is not that people are coming here, it's that immigration of necessary workers filling both gaps in skills the UK workers don't have and doing jobs British workers won't do (such as seasonal agriculture) doesn't have to be the same as free movement. To have one you don't have to have the other. How free movement effects me personally is this: I work in retail. My employer (mistakenly, in my opinion) believes that in 12 weeks anyone who can speak English (as most EU migrants can) can do my job, Freedom of movement increases supply of retail workers, making my labour less scarce. Of course this does lead to more consumers but the increase on the supply side is larger than the demand side. This means that my employer and potential other employers can offer me lesser wages and/or lesser guarantees and benefits (such as zero-hours contracts) because if I won't do it, someone else will. It's not that my future prospects for career progression are blocked or I'm being overlooked as much as the economy changing. Is this all because of EU immigration? No, of course not. Increasing the amount of workers sometimes happens naturally (the steady increase of women in work since World War 2) and sometimes by government design (immigration from the commonwealth in the late 40's onwards). But EU immigration is the topic right in front of me here and if the right that EU migrants currently have to come here automatically is no longer in force I can vote for a party that could, in theory, enact policies on immigration that would improve my value in the labour market, and therefore, my life. Would any party propose such a policy? I don't know for sure. But there is a chance. And that chance never existed in my lifetime before.

Bloody hell. Writing that post took me an hour. Hopefully some of it is readable. I need a beer.
 
Nice to see some sensible posts both for and against from townend and Chris who. A welcome break from some of the hysterical (anti EU) posts.
 
You deserve a beer or two...... Yes, even Farridge has said we can have immigrants on a points based system but I think one problem is that farm workers etc. We have a visa type for low skilled workers from outside the EU but no visas have ever been issued - see this website http://workpermit.com/immigration/united-kingdom/uk-five-tier-points-based-immigration-system

If they were issued, then you see migrant workers from SE Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Africa, which will certainly get heads turning and tongues wagging. These workers are not likely to return 'home' so readily, which makes it a nonsense to put a block on EU immigrants coming to a country that has an ageing population and a severe shortage of workers, teachers, nurses, doctors, engineers with a shrinking birthrate.
 
Can anyone please explain how the UK leaving the EU and the reinstatement of a border, be it hard, soft or invisible, will encourage Paramilitaries to take up arms and start shooting each other again?
John Major tells us that any border will potentially lead to sectarian violence.
This weeks Observer had an interview with an American who helped broker the Good Friday agreement.
He said the same. He said that any border could spark off a re-occurance of sectarian violence
Why?
No one explains why.
What has a border got to do with it?
Serious question.

Are there Republican and Loyalist fighters sitting in basements planning atrocities for the minute after midnight 29th March 2019?

To me, it sounds like another Project Fear scare story.
The sky is falling in !
 
As you noted Wayne, there's plenty of jobs in teaching. We are desperately short, even in nice middle class Bromley.

I chuckle at the government adverts saying what a great career it is and how fast you can get promoted. I can tell them why you get promoted quickly, it's the astonishing drop out/burn out rate.

We rely on "foreigners" to make up the numbers.
 
Shotshy, if all these people who were intimate with the causes of the troubles say there could be a problem then I think we have to acknowledge what they say. The underlying problem and always has been is the position of the loyalists and you can see this with the continued failure to get the NI assembly up and running. A united Ireland would mean the loyalists would lose everything or at least that's how they feel. and they will not give up without a fight.
 
No-one has primed the EU. EU borders came long before the Good Friday Agreement and were fashioned with the EU in mind. The two are not mutually exclusive.
 
The experts involved in the settlement don't know what they are talking about shotshy. That Yank is obviously a Remoaner and SurreyBob is the legal expert we should all have faith in.

Experts know nothing. Go down the pub and find out the truth.

 
shotshy - 4/3/2018 15:42

Can anyone please explain how the UK leaving the EU and the reinstatement of a border, be it hard, soft or invisible, will encourage Paramilitaries to take up arms and start shooting each other again?
John Major tells us that any border will potentially lead to sectarian violence.
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I can not explain it as it makes no sense. Sectarian violence happened between 1973 (when UK and Ireland both joined the Common Market) and the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. This included the time when John Major was PM.

The reason it stopped is that there was a will for peace between representatives of two Religious groups. Nothing to do with Customs borders.

Just Mr Grey seeing another Project Fear opportunity.
 
One thing I do find interesting is how many of you say they have worked in Europe and that we will be denying our children the right to do so.

I reach 60 this year and in my whole lifetime I can not recall personally knowing anyone who worked in Europe. My best friend worked in Hong Kong for a few years and my Uncle had a spell in Japan. The best I can come up with is an acquaintance who has a son who lives in Germany and has stayed there after marrying a German girl.

I appreciate that I may need to get out more but I suspect that most of the demand from the EU for our workforce is for the more highly skilled specialist jobs which are highly paid. I can not see such people being prevented from carrying on their duties after we have left.
 
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