So what next? Who stays? Who goes? Who comes in?

[Wurzel]

I don't mean to offend but I honestly can't tell if you're on the wind up or not.

I'm guessing not as it was an extremely long post and you don't get many people going to that time and effort for a wind up.

I just don't get it though. You're aware we conceded 67 goals this season? The 2nd worst in the league. How on earth can you say we don't need to strengthen defensively and keep a straight face?

Very confused.

Also apparently we don't need a striker!! LOL

 

[Wurzel]

Heaton
Mings
Douglas
SJM
Grealish

I'm struggling to see past those five, although I'm a bit of a fanboy of Nakamba's tbh.

Top exits for me are Ghazi & Wesley, however, if we can ever get rid of those muppets that is.

Another half a dozen players at c£20m each then? Must be doable if they'll blow the TV money again this season.

See it isn't blowing it IMO it is sensible investment to secure future revenues in the Prem. In fact I would expect any decent owner to be investing the maximum they can over the next three years for the long term good of the club. Anything less and we will slide back down.
As for what we need there isn't a position in the team that couldn't do with improving with the exception of Jack.

 

[mike_field]

Not for me to argue Tierney's opinion, but I'm assuming defensively he's leaning on our improvement after the restart and the 12 month experience helping as despite the goals we conceded had we put away our own efforts more regularly we'd have been a hell of a lot higher. So defence isn't strictly our major problem.

But on the striker point he has a +1, so a signing required. I'd prefer two myself, but not sure where you got that from Wurz?

Unless I've missed something again mate?

 

[McParlandTheGreat]

It's no use signing any players if we don't have a system into which they'll fit. And at the moment we don't have a system. DS managed to get a tune out of the defence in the end, but further forwards it was make it up as you go along and rely on Jack. Buy any forward and how would they fit into that?

I think we're missing a crucial part of the team, defensive midfield. We need one which protects the defence but is also capable of driving attacks. We have players who might be capable of such a defence like Luiz, but it's really core to the team and we need real quality in droves there. We need to be able to attack much faster and with freedom, and that's where it starts. At the moment we have Luiz, Connor, Nakamba and SJM to choose from, and I've a feeling there's something missing.

Even if we bought quality wingers and a forward, would our DM be enough for them to perform?

 

[Wurzel]

Not for me to argue Tierney's opinion, but I'm assuming defensively he's leaning on our improvement after the restart and the 12 month experience helping as despite the goals we conceded had we put away our own efforts more regularly we'd have been a hell of a lot higher. So defence isn't strictly our major problem.

But on the striker point he has a +1, so a signing required. I'd prefer two myself, but not sure where you got that from Wurz?

Unless I've missed something again mate?

Some comment about Samatta being OK, Wesley obviously isn't, and Davis would be great in the ticket office. We need two quality strikers end of. We just need better quality players in every position really. Not all at once, but we need 5 or 6 new players this window. To rely on this bunch on the premise that they will be magically better in 6 weeks in cloud cuckoo stuff.

 

[mike_field]

I read as back up to a more proven newbie myself, but like you, would prefer 2x proven strikers as part of the 4/5 we sign. Outside of a couple of gambles for the future, our spending per player (unless we find a gem on a cheap) needs to jump to around £30m this year for me.

Better quality, more expensive, but fewer new faces and whilst it wasn't pretty, surviving like we did actually gives us some momentum back for next season. We can't blow that again by revamping half the squad.

 

[Bonker]

It's no use signing any players if we don't have a system into which they'll fit. And at the moment we don't have a system. DS managed to get a tune out of the defence in the end, but further forwards it was make it up as you go along and rely on Jack. Buy any forward and how would they fit into that?

I think we're missing a crucial part of the team, defensive midfield. We need one which protects the defence but is also capable of driving attacks. We have players who might be capable of such a defence like Luiz, but it's really core to the team and we need real quality in droves there. We need to be able to attack much faster and with freedom, and that's where it starts. At the moment we have Luiz, Connor, Nakamba and SJM to choose from, and I've a feeling there's something missing.

Even if we bought quality wingers and a forward, would our DM be enough for them to perform?

Well I'm a firm believer in fitting your "system" to the players you actually have at your disposal and if a couple of your forward players aren't up to snuff (Wesley and Ghazi, Jesus wept ...) then it doesn't matter about the system or the players behind the ball further back as the ball will be raining down on them for 80 minutes per game as it was Nakamba for half of the season.

I think both our defence and midfield could be improved for sure but without at least one swinging dick up front to make the ball stick for more than three seconds (*cough* Mitrovic *cough*) then the rest of the team are screwed anyway at PL level.

I totally get everyone's frustration with our apparent lack of a Plan B this season but tbf to DS, even getting Plan A to even half-work was impossible with empty shirts like Wesley and Ghazi commanding starting positions up front but he can only work with what he's been given to work with.

Some think Nakamba is gash and I get that but ffs, the pressure he was having to try and soak up for 90% of half of the games last season was comical - Kante in his pomp would struggle to look good for us last season!

Before McGinn got injured and the confidence evaporated from the rest of the side, we actually put in a few decent performances - I think it's a matter of plugging the oh-so-obvious weak points further up the field (and maybe defence too - LB/RB) first of all and we may look a completely different team with just a couple of additions but we've gotta be brutal here IMO and if certain show ponies like Wesley and Ghazi are seen to not be up to snuff then they need to be shipped pronto IMO and that'll maybe help everyone else look/play better if we have two more outfield players that can actually affect games in some way and not leave it all to everyone else.

 

[Wurzel]

I can't help having this feeling people are mistaking our survival as somehow justifying that these players are good enough for next season. Not sure why people think that, we have just pulled of a great escape, according to the betting odds four weeks before the season ended we had over a 90% chance of going down. We should not fall into the trap that things are OK, they are not, and if we lose Jack then things are going to be very tough. We need to spend big money.

 

[Bonker]

I read as back up to a more proven newbie myself, but like you, would prefer 2x proven strikers as part of the 4/5 we sign. Outside of a couple of gambles for the future, our spending per player (unless we find a gem on a cheap) needs to jump to around £30m this year for me.

Better quality, more expensive, but fewer new faces and whilst it wasn't pretty, surviving like we did actually gives us some momentum back for next season. We can't blow that again by revamping half the squad.

I tend to agree but it's not just about scoring goals up front for me, it's about being able to put your foot on the effing ball for more than three seconds each time before the ball is boinged back at our defence again.

We need a presence up front - Wesley and Ghazi couldn't trap a bag of cement between themselves and have the physical presence of a 12 year old girl - they've gotta be shipped IMO.

Give me a Mitrovic who could have a "poor" season with only ten goals yet occupy the opposing defence and DMs a lot more than our current lot and I think we'd be in much better shape overall - the reliance on Jack to carry/keep the ball this season was just embarrassing and the likes of SJM can't be expected to be banging in ten goals if there isn't a swinging dick ahead of them giving the opposing defence something else to be worried about.

 

[Bonker]

I can't help having this feeling people are mistaking our survival as somehow justifying that these players are good enough for next season. Not sure why people think that, we have just pulled of a great escape, according to the betting odds four weeks before the season ended we had over a 90% chance of going down. We should not fall into the trap that things are OK, they are not, and if we lose Jack then things are going to be very tough. We need to spend big money.

Yup - we "shouldn't" have survived - it's terrific that we got away with it but we can hardly say we deserved it with that defensive record and the number of points given away from winning positions.

We absolutely need to root out the 2-4 weakest players from that first team and replace them with a known quantity - we did the "budget" moneyball sh*t last season and got away with it but we can't afford to do that again, it's got to be £20m+ players from here on out otherwise what's the point?

 

[ironside]

I can't help having this feeling people are mistaking our survival as somehow justifying that these players are good enough for next season. Not sure why people think that, we have just pulled of a great escape, according to the betting odds four weeks before the season ended we had over a 90% chance of going down. We should not fall into the trap that things are OK, they are not, and if we lose Jack then things are going to be very tough. We need to spend big money.

Absolutely bang on the money. Print it large.
For me we had four Premier League players last season and two of them, (Heaton and McGinn ) ,missed a big chunk of the campaign. Luiz and Trezeguet stepped up to the mark after the lockdown but you could shuffle the pack with the others and it wouldn’t make much difference.

 

[BEEFY]

Brooks from Bournemouth please. If you ever manage to find a Leicester fan, talk to them about their season before winning the league. Kante and mahrez transformed them. Not big signings....much needed 'tweaks'. With that seasons experience behind them, I believe no huge overall required. Two wingers and a striker. Possibly a right back. For me, that's it. Anyone else fattens out the squad only. Bring in half a dozen multi million pound players then we're just resetting the clock and going through this season all over again.

 

[Tierney]

Also apparently we don't need a striker!! LOL

Did you read what I posted? As @mike_field mentions I put +1, plus wrote a clear need for a goalscoring striker as my #1 priority? That striker will be a forefront, our main man and not someone Baston-esque! Someone that will raise the game of Wesley and Samatta. Someone whose aim is to bang in 10-15 goals. My statement on the others was more a belief they have something about them and they're worth keeping on. I actually think Wesley would've got close to double digits this season were it not for the injury. Oh and I say 10-15 because in the bottom half the only players to get 10+ this season were Ings, Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison, Pukki, Antonio, Deeney and Maupay. They're not easy to get.

Some comment about Samatta being OK, Wesley obviously isn't, and Davis would be great in the ticket office. We need two quality strikers end of. We just need better quality players in every position really. Not all at once, but we need 5 or 6 new players this window. To rely on this bunch on the premise that they will be magically better in 6 weeks in cloud cuckoo stuff.

You say Wesley obviously isn't good enough yet in only 21 games was a third top goalscorer in the league, which I'll guess is the best goals per game ratio we had in the squad. I'm not saying he's perfect, but we were never going to attract a Drogba like forward, but the boy (somehow) does find the net.

You'll also see from my fullsome post that we need around 5 (I went 4/5) quality additions. You may realise when you read it through again we're more on the same page than you may think! You may not, but I did stipulate that in the opening sentence!

 

[Tierney]

I don't mean to offend but I honestly can't tell if you're on the wind up or not.

I'm guessing not as it was an extremely long post and you don't get many people going to that time and effort for a wind up.

I just don't get it though. You're aware we conceded 67 goals this season? The 2nd worst in the league. How on earth can you say we don't need to strengthen defensively and keep a straight face?

Very confused.

I'll be honest @DeanoVilla, it was your opening post that has made me think of mine that I've constructed in my head the past few days because I felt you were on the wind up too with your desire to basically buy a brand new starting XI. You mentioned 8 signings and although, I'm unsure on the midfield quotes, I trust you to have the vision that any addition needs to improve the starting XI and not be a bench improver. Buying 8 new starters is in that ever-popular phrase, "doing a Fulham" in my mind.

Nakamba... Engels... wouldn't be sad to see any of those two sold if we can get our money back or close to.

So that's 8-10 players out... potentially £20 million in + whatever Wes and Nas areprepared to put into the rectruitment pot.

Obviously a lot depends on what happens with Grealish, but lets assume he's staying, what do we then need to add?

I think we're ok in goal. Heaton will be back fit, Steer is a capable no.2 and we must have a decent youngster in reserve.

Guilbert has been hit and miss, so if Elmo is sold due to his contract running out, then I think a new RB is a priority.

Would love to see an experienced CB to come in and partner Mings. Get rid of Engels, and Konsa used as 3rd choice. Hause can stay as a squad player.

LB also a priority. Targett isn't good enough, but I'd keep him for backup.

Central midfield I think we're pretty much ok. Luiz, McGinn and Grealish..... maybe a replacement for Hourihane who can then be a good squad player? and if Nakamba goes then a backup for Luiz.

Biggest priority for me is the front 3. Trez, El Ghazi, Wesley, Samatta, Davis... none have been good enough this season. I'd keep Trez and Ghazi as backups but bring 2 more wide players in.

So...

LB
RB
CB
DM
CM
LW
RW
FW

8 players. Gotta be paying big bucks for them to get the quality we need.. £20mill+ per player at least.

Ironically though, our beliefs aren't all that different. Even with the defence, your view is only to get players in that improve those we already have, which if you read my optional 5th buy purchase, is what I said. If there's someone out there available, affordable and better than what we have, of course we should snap them up.

@mike_field mae some very valid points when backing up my argument. Furthermore, we conceded an embarrassing number of goals from mistakes this season. The Premier League site has us at 11, second only to Newcastle (for context, Watford were bottom with just 2, Brighton 3, Bournemouth 6). Our defence also crumbled with our form. At the start of the season, when we lost, we usually only did so by 1 goal; until Leicester pummelled us at Villa Park on 8 December (GW16), the only two exceptions to this were on the opening day at Spurs and our trip to the Etihad. So although you may argue performances didn't deserve too, we kept ourselves in games and a number of those first 15 games were soft, sloppy goals we conceded.

It's proven in the league table, if you split the season into quarters, our defensive performance was this:
Q1 (after GW10) - 15th in league; -1 GD; 16 GA (15th worse in league but equal to Chelsea in 4th!)
Q2 (after GW19) - 18th in league, -8 GD; 33 GA (17th worse in league)
Q3 (after GW29, lockdown hits) - 19th in league, -22 GD, 56 GA (league worst)
Q4 (after GW38) - 17th in league, -26 GD, 67 GA (19th worse in league)

As MF mentioned, post-lockdown, the defence improved. We earnt 10 points in that time, which if we had a post-lockdown table would place us 13th (above Leicester & Sheffield United) with a -4 GD. That GD was better in that time than Sheffield United, Leicester, Watford, Bournemouth, etc. It was actually 11th best in the league. Whilst the 11 goals we conceded was only bettered by 7 other clubs (we were higher than the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Leicester.

If we can continue to improve upon that record (whilst improving the balance so we look more threatening going forwards as well), reduce our errors to the more mean total of 6/7, take on board the experience this season will have invariably bought, and not let our defence capitulate in correlation to our form (a lot of if's I admit), then I don't think the defence requires that much of an overhaul; certainly not to put us in the 10th-14th bracket that I would be targeting anyway.

I could be wrong and you're entitled to your view as well, but that's just how I see it currently.

 

[Tierney]

Not for me to argue Tierney's opinion

Argue away, especially as it seems like you're of the same mindset as me!

 

[david-avfc]

Don't quite understand how Nakamba was the main, sometimes only, defensive part of our midfield before the break and is now considered to be expendable.

Well before lockdown when he was the main defensive part of our midfield we had the worst defensive record in the league and after lockdown when he wasn’t in the team we looked much better particularly as Luiz stepped up massively and Nakamba was barely trusted at all. Something about Nakamba I don’t know if it’s his positioning or something but I always get the impression we look weak in the middle whenever he plays. I’d keep him as a squad player because I think these suggestions of overhauling half the squad again are ridiculous but I’d bring in an experienced defensive midfielder someone like Capoue highly rated, 5 or 6 years in the prem and should now be available

 

[david-avfc]

Here's my opinion on it all, which may be considered dull and lacking ambition by some, or sensible and reasonable by others.

To provide background and context, I was of the belief at the start of the season we were going to be a bottom six club (based on a number of factors, including the player turnover) and it was whether we were in the top or bottom half of that group. Fortunately, we just, stayed above the line.

With the effect of coronavirus on the game as a whole, along with the shortened pre-season, I would not be keen on seeing wholesale changes to the squad. Players will have less time to become embedded and aware of the system Smith wants to impart, whilst they may also be moving into the area (if abroad will this mean spending two weeks in quarantine?). In addition, as much as it was a gamble I wasn't entirely a fan of, those players we had last season do now have a season of Premier League nous and experience which will hopefully be of benefit in the long-term. Also, we cannot keep rebuilding a squad year after year!

To me, we need to build slow and steady, and whether the impatience of modern football will permit that, time will tell. I would consider finishing in the 10th-14th bracket this upcoming season as positive. As such, I am looking at where I would target recruits based on this positioning.

Right now are squad consists of:

GK: Heaton, Kalinic, Nyland, Steer
DF: Bree, Elmohamady, Engels, Guilbert, Hause, Konsa, Mings, Targett, Taylor
MD: El Ghazi, Grealish, Hourihane, Jota, Lansbury, Luiz, McGinn, Nakamba, Trezeguet
ST: Davis, Hogan, Samatta, Vassilev, Wesley

I believe to improve the squad and ensure we don't get caught out by the turnaround that we should look at 4 (potentially 5) signings when working off Smith's favoured 4-3-3 formation:

1. Striker: I don't think there's necessarily as much grief needed to be given to our strikers than what is currently spouted, particularly when none of them all season have had any worthwhile competition. if you find a player who can bag you the 10-15 bracket, you're in with a shout. Wesley might achieve that, but it's asking a lot of someone coming back from a long-term injury. I'd keep Samatta too as his start was lively, but he may have needed six months to get up to speed (as many foreign imports do). Alas, I am not a Davis fan and never have been. He needn't have to be prolific, but he has to score sometimes and he just doesn't, even when presented with great opportunities. I would cash in on him and Hogan and have Wesley and Samatta as my two alternatives to a new man.

2. Wingers: this is actually two signings in one department. Do I see the likes of El Ghazi and Treeguet as good enough back-up options off the bench? Yes. Do I like the idea of them as first-choice options for another season? No. I would like us to find two players that are both an upgrade on what we have already to play on either flank. This is also based on the thought process that Jack is probably more likely to go than stay. Although, even if he does stay (fingers crossed), I'd still invest in two and let Jota move on to find regular game time elsewhere.

3. Midfielder: This would be an upgrade on Hourihane, who I like but don't see as making the impact sufficiently across a 38 game season (he is ideal against the likes of Newcastle, Palace, etc). Someone that is dynamic and offers some creativity is the mould I'd maybe consider. A new addition would also help cover the loss of the option of Jack slotting in there when need be should he depart. I would try to move Lansbury on, as I just don't see what he offers (but I guess most clubs see that too!).

4. The Back 5: Honestly, I don't see too much needing to be done here. Am I happy with Guilbert and Targett as full-backs for a bottom mid-table team? Yes. Likewise with Elmo and Taylor as understudies. There is no point replacing anyone unless you are improving the starting XI, that's how it should be, we cannot be wasting funds out on back-up full-backs! Bree could be let gof he wants. I'm not a Hause fan, but as an understudy for Mings, he'll do. I like Konsa and I was a big fan of Engels at the start of the season so would keep them both on. If there was a good opportunity available, of course I hope the club take it, but it's down on the list for me. Same with the 'keepers. Heaton, Steer and Nyland are good enough as a trio (although it's all dependent on Heaton's recovery). Kalinic needs to leave for his own career prospects, particularly internationally.

It should be noted, this whole plan is based on the Premier League keeping the 25 man squad and maybe being sensible (unlikely I accept) in not invoking the 5 substitution rule next year. I would probably only try to shift Kalinic and Hogan in that scenario.

My squad would therefore be :

GK: Heaton, Steer, Nyland
DF: Elmohamady, Engels, Guilbert, Hause, Konsa, Mings, Targett, Taylor
MD: El Ghazi, Grealish, Hourihane, Luiz, McGinn, Nakamba, Trezeguet +3
ST: Samatta, Wesley +1

Supplemented with youngsters like Ramsey and Vassilev when needed.

As mentioned it's all about upgrading the first team, not replacing those that sit on the bench currently. Bring in quality, not quantity this summer; build on the experience of the season just gone and I think we may be able to grow and prosper over time and have this club back at the top where it belongs!

Great post only disagreement for me is I think we need a defensive midfielder rather than a creative one because Luiz is more of a deep-playmaker rather than a tough tackler which I think we need, and I also think we need an experienced centre back to compliment Konsa and Mings but completely agree with you on full back cover I don’t understand how anyone could think a sub left back is a top priority for a club in our position

 

[ironside]

I think somebody posted that we’ve used six strikers in the league this season, either as starters or subs, and they’ve scored six league goals between them. If that’s true then our first priority seems obvious.

 

[JW1985]

I think somebody posted that we’ve used six strikers in the league this season, either as starters or subs, and they’ve scored six league goals between them. If that’s true then our first priority seems obvious.

Pretty damming when 5 of them are from 1 bloke who missed half the season. Its obvious what the priority should be this summer. Whatever transfer budget we have I'd say set aside about half of it for 2 proper strikers. Loan out Davis. Bring Wesley back in slowly and sell Samatta.

 

[ldgavfc]

Pretty damming when 5 of them are from 1 bloke who missed half the season. Its obvious what the priority should be this summer. Whatever transfer budget we have I'd say set aside about half of it for 2 proper strikers. Loan out Davis. Bring Wesley back in slowly and sell Samatta.

I'd be happy if we signed one very good striker, keep developing Wesley and Davis behind him and sign two very good wingers so we can move Grealish back inside and Trezeguet back to Trazonspor or wherever he came from.