So, whadda we gonna moan abart?

[Hampton]

Fair point ................ but what about Johnson's line re pubs, theatres etc. It appears to be causing a bit of a stink in the industry. Convenient? Deliberately vague? An oversight?

Based on what Macron has done this evening (re support to business), our approach appears to be a little half-hearted to say the least.

As the French government has been illegally propping up all their businesses for decades it's hardly a further stretch for Msr Macron to announce this

 

[moonay]

As the French government has been illegally propping up all their businesses for decades it's hardly a further stretch for Msr Macron to announce this

Illegally? Bear in mind many (most?) of the large ones are still nationalised.

The French approach appears to reach out to small businesses too though.

Maybe they'll now need to prop up the insurance companies.

 

[Made in Wigan]

So latest info from scientists advising the government is that even with these measures implemented and school/uni closures 250,000 will die and measures needed for about 18 months until a vaccine is found. Grim isn’t the word.

 

[moonay]

So latest info from scientists advising the government is that even with these measures implemented and school/uni closures 250,000 will die and measures needed for about 18 months until a vaccine is found. Grim isn’t the word.

Yep........ though to be fair, they've had the death toll at that from the word go.

Population of (roughly) 65,000,000
Infection ratio of around 40% .................... = 26,000,000
Fatality ratio to infections of 1% ................. = 260,000

Bugger.

 

[Made in Wigan]

Yeah I know the % is low and I guess the odds are in everyone’s favour but the actual best case number is sobering. No doubt when this is done we’ll all likely know someone who has succumbed to it.

 

[Lazysid]

The current population of China is 1,408,526,449.

Deaths inside China stand at 3,208 as of today.

 

[king_dezeeuw06]

Fair point ................ but what about Johnson's line re pubs, theatres etc. It appears to be causing a bit of a stink in the industry. Convenient? Deliberately vague? An oversight?

Based on what Macron has done this evening (re support to business), our approach appears to be a little half-hearted to say the least.

This is kind of proving my point Boris has advised people what to do but isn't going to force them at least yet. If he did force them he'd be getting critasism for removing any choice, if he gives people choice he gets critasism for not forcing them. If he sticks or twists on any subject he will get slated for not doing the opposite. Reality is forcibly stopping people doing anything on a mass scale like we are advising is hard and will take resources and cause additional issues we don't need.

They already announced stimulus plans including loans for business owners, helping to pay cost for sickness leave, etc before France did in the budget last week. But obviously things have moved along drastically and in thr press confrence Boris said they are going to revisit the plans prior to Macrons announcement. The new Governor of the Bank of England had his first day today, hes already met with the Chancellor and confirmed there will be a stimulus in the future but its probably not something they are going to have finalised in an afternoon. The global banks are meeting currently trying to stratergise the best way to protect the markets and the Federal Reserve has dropped interest rates to record lows so there are a lot of moving parts that we need to see how they play out as it will impact our decisions. As Boris said today there will need to be a global effort to protect the economy we've also got daily press confrences so I'm certain there will be info soon.

But put it this way Macron has pledged 300b that is double our defecit at it's peak and about a 6th of our national debt we've accrued over the countries existence - it's a hell of a lot money that will be paid out of tax payers pockets. It is so much it will likely still be being paid off by kids not even born yet. Anything like that is a huge financial decision and it needs to be one carefully considered and just like many of Frances economic policies over the years might sound good on paper but prove unsustainable in practice in the long term.

We are going to need to do something and we will but it's probably going to need some serious modelling and it's hard to work out when the metrics are changing by the day. It will happen but we've got to work out what is in the tax payers best interest and just like so many have been very critical of the bank bail outs this will be like that on steroids by the time we are done. Big tough calls to be made and whatever is decided will be slated for years to come.

 

[king_dezeeuw06]

Yeah I know the % is low and I guess the odds are in everyone’s favour but the actual best case number is sobering. No doubt when this is done we’ll all likely know someone who has succumbed to it.

Remember though out of those potential 250k the majority will be people dying or suffering from other underlying conditions. The deaths caused by the virus will largely be speeding up the deaths of people who may have died anyway. I don't mean to be at all dismissive of those poor people dying under those circumstances but I think this can actually skew the figures to make the virus fatality rate look worse than it is.

Hopefully we can avoid that many deaths but I think there are stories out there the media aren't really focusing on about people recovering in a matter of days. I believe there is even a case of a lady who is 103 beating it so I'd love to see the media starting to give some hope rather than just fear.

 

[moonay]

This is kind of proving my point Boris has advised people what to do but isn't going to force them at least yet. If he did force them he'd be getting critasism for removing any choice, if he gives people choice he gets critasism for not forcing them. If he sticks or twists on any subject he will get slated for not doing the opposite. Reality is forcibly stopping people doing anything on a mass scale like we are advising is hard and will take resources and cause additional issues we don't need.
.

Yes, but by "advising" people what to do, but without offering any recompense to the business owners who would obviously lose custom - and would otherwise be able to claim on insurance - isn't it just a little wishy washy?

I initially thought it a reasonable move...... if a little puzzling ...... but then, I'm not paid to think of the implications. Johnson is.

......
They already announced stimulus plans including loans for business owners, helping to pay cost for sickness leave, etc before France did in the budget last week. But obviously things have moved along drastically and in thr press confrence Boris said they are going to revisit the plans prior to Macrons announcement.
.

Come off it KDZ. The Government announced sick pay (£97pw? ) will be paid from Day 1. .........for those who are entitled ........... That's all.

I believe that Sunak will at tomorrow's briefing, but that doean't detract from today's ambiguous announcement.

............ and the Federal Reserve has dropped interest rates to record lows so there are a lot of moving parts that we need to see how they play out as it will impact our decisions..

.....and the DOW dropped by another 3,000 points.

........But put it this way Macron has pledged 300b that is double our defecit at it's peak and about a 6th of our national debt we've accrued over the countries existence - it's a hell of a lot money that will be paid out of tax payers pockets. It is so much it will likely still be being paid off by kids not even born yet. Anything like that is a huge financial decision and it needs to be one carefully considered and just like many of Frances economic policies over the years might sound good on paper but prove unsustainable in practice in the long term.
.

You're right. The amount is massive.......... but that isn't the point. It's the intent. The obvious linking of consequential decisions. Cause and effect. The French have acknowledged it. Maybe we will do also, tomorrow.

We are going to need to do something and we will but it's probably going to need some serious modelling and it's hard to work out when the metrics are changing by the day. It will happen but we've got to work out what is in the tax payers best interest and just like so many have been very critical of the bank bail outs this will be like that on steroids by the time we are done. Big tough calls to be made and whatever is decided will be slated for years to come.

As we both know, that modelling will have been going on for the last month at least. They will also have been modelling the accuracy of what they've modelled. The point remains though that on the one hand, they're telling people (quite rightly) what they shouldn't do, whilst not telling those who will be negatively impacted what they're going to do , if anything, for them.

Not an easy job, I know. I just hope that Branson gets told to eff off, when he's pleading for support for his bloody airline.

 

[C_Latic]

This country won’t survive 18 months of restricted measures. In six months the public will say fuck off to these restrictions and get on with their lives, happy to take their chances of catching it. That includes sport. The people of this country will not accept no football for longer than six months or so. They and the cash strapped clubs will force things to start up again with the warning to fans that you attend at your own risk.

This government have to order the closure of pubs/restaurants/shops immediately. It’s a disgrace that they haven’t done already, letting them go up the wall without being able to claim insurance. People slag off Donald Trump but he hasn’t fucked about like we have. The moment the alarm bells rang he closed all entry into the US and ordered the majors of their cities to shut all businesses indefinitely. I’m no politician but I would have closed all entry into the UK back in early February when it was clear Wuhan was going to spiral out of control. Would we in this situation now had we done this? I doubt it.

 

[moonay]

Remember though out of those potential 250k the majority will be people dying or suffering from other underlying conditions. The deaths caused by the virus will largely be speeding up the deaths of people who may have died anyway. I don't mean to be at all dismissive of those poor people dying under those circumstances but I think this can actually skew the figures to make the virus fatality rate look worse than it is.
.

Yep......though it sounds heartless. I'm not sure though that folk might have died anyway, (not immediately at least), but their existing condition will certainly be a contributory factor.

Hopefully we can avoid that many deaths but I think there are stories out there the media aren't really focusing on about people recovering in a matter of days. I believe there is even a case of a lady who is 103 beating it so I'd love to see the media starting to give some hope rather than just fear.

Apparently, Nadine Dorries gave it to her Mum, and yet her Mum suffered fewer symptoms than Dorries.

 

[moonay]

....... People slag off Donald Trump but he hasn’t fucked about like we have. The moment the alarm bells rang he closed all entry into the US and ordered the majors of their cities to shut all businesses indefinitely. I’m no politician but I would have closed all entry into the UK back in early February when it was clear Wuhan was going to spiral out of control. Would we in this situation now had we done this? I doubt it.

The flights stopped at the end of January ........ a few days after Trump had said he wasn't concerned by it.

He hasn't ordered anything at City level - that's been the Governors and Mayors. They've been acting for days (of not weeks) ahead of any federal direction.

He's a moron, and I've no hesitation in saying that I trust Johnson a thousand times more to get us through this than Trump.

As for stopping flights, I reckon that we've got more infections by folk travelling to Europe than directly from China.

 

[Hampton]

Illegally? Bear in mind many (most?) of the large ones are still nationalised.

The French approach appears to reach out to small businesses too though.

Maybe they'll now need to prop up the insurance companies.

3 words Moonay - Common agricultural policy - constructed by the French for the benefit of the French (and switched on Greek olive growers) case for the prosecution rests
Interestingly 75% of French insurance is underwritten by non French insurers the majority exposure is on the city of London-

 

[Hampton]

Remember though out of those potential 250k the majority will be people dying or suffering from other underlying conditions. The deaths caused by the virus will largely be speeding up the deaths of people who may have died anyway. I don't mean to be at all dismissive of those poor people dying under those circumstances but I think this can actually skew the figures to make the virus fatality rate look worse than it is.

Hopefully we can avoid that many deaths but I think there are stories out there the media aren't really focusing on about people recovering in a matter of days. I believe there is even a case of a lady who is 103 beating it so I'd love to see the media starting to give some hope rather than just fear.

To offer a glimmer of hope - I recieved a positive test last Tuesday as part of a confirmed case trace in Chorley - i was fine until Friday. Then got a cough, some pains in my upper arms and generally felt shit.
Today feel fine, cough still going but not as bad. Kept working from home and tbf no worse than man flu.
Now hoping the science confirms you can't catch it twice !
Keep the faith people

 

[king_dezeeuw06]

Yep......though it sounds heartless. I'm not sure though that folk might have died anyway, (not immediately at least), but their existing condition will certainly be a contributory factor.



Apparently, Nadine Dorries gave it to her Mum, and yet her Mum suffered fewer symptoms than Dorries.

The point was more around Corona may account for 250k fatalities it will be taking a large number of those from other conditions meaning the fatalities in those categories could simultaniously shrink and leave us with a much smaller net than 250k extra deaths. While the loss of days, weeks or months for those people is a tragedy it will pump up the numbers of Corona. The media will run with the quarter of a mill without any nuisance or perspective.

Nadine Dorries and her 84 year old mum apparently both recovered in a week. But it appears their recovery is getting a lot less interest than the infection. Guess it would break the narrative to give good news.

 

[king_dezeeuw06]

To offer a glimmer of hope - I recieved a positive test last Tuesday as part of a confirmed case trace in Chorley - i was fine until Friday. Then got a cough, some pains in my upper arms and generally felt shit.
Today feel fine, cough still going but not as bad. Kept working from home and tbf no worse than man flu.
Now hoping the science confirms you can't catch it twice !
Keep the faith people

They addressed this today in the press confrence they said generally you shouldn't be able to catch it twice but there is rare cases when it can happen. I think if you catch it twice it's probably a mutated or different strain than the first one rather than getting the same one again.

Glad to hear you are feeling better.

 

[Hampton]

They addressed this today in the press confrence they said generally you shouldn't be able to catch it twice but there is rare cases when it can happen. I think if you catch it twice it's probably a mutated or different strain than the first one rather than getting the same one again.

Glad to hear you are feeling better.

Thing is don't think anyone (except maybe the Chinese know this right now)
Thought i would share my own experience as folk are understandably becoming quite worried right now !

 

[king_dezeeuw06]

Yes, but by "advising" people what to do, but without offering any recompense to the business owners who would obviously lose custom - and would otherwise be able to claim on insurance - isn't it just a little wishy washy?

I initially thought it a reasonable move...... if a little puzzling ...... but then, I'm not paid to think of the implications. Johnson is.



Come off it KDZ. The Government announced sick pay (£97pw? ) will be paid from Day 1. .........for those who are entitled ........... That's all.

I believe that Sunak will at tomorrow's briefing, but that doean't detract from today's ambiguous announcement.



.....and the DOW dropped by another 3,000 points.



You're right. The amount is massive.......... but that isn't the point. It's the intent. The obvious linking of consequential decisions. Cause and effect. The French have acknowledged it. Maybe we will do also, tomorrow.



As we both know, that modelling will have been going on for the last month at least. They will also have been modelling the accuracy of what they've modelled. The point remains though that on the one hand, they're telling people (quite rightly) what they shouldn't do, whilst not telling those who will be negatively impacted what they're going to do , if anything, for them.

Not an easy job, I know. I just hope that Branson gets told to eff off, when he's pleading for support for his bloody airline.

I think you are being impatient and your personal dislike for Boris is making you overly critical. If we were talking Boris delaying financial stimulus weeks then fair enough but he pretty much announced today it is happening, the BOE Governor said it's happening and Sunak is scheduled to speak tomorrow - i dont think that is unreasonable time frames. They probably want to time announcements too so todays messages wont get lost in the financial discussions. I imagine if there are major changes over night Sunak may be held off another day and the new message presented without any additional distraction, but if over night things are largely as expected Sunak will talk in more detail and BOE could be on too.

Between last Monday to Thursday and then Thursday to Monday there has been a drastic increase in the pace of the epidemic strategy. It's fast moving and there are going to be hundreds of decisions, briefings, discussion etc so there is a lot going on, any measure might not be immediately announced but it will be within a short space of time. But whatever Boris or Sunak announce it will be critasised, when the reality is there is nothing they can say that will work for everyone someone is going to take a hit and there is no win win scenario.

 

[Hampton]

Keep calm, carry on, believe !
And trust that the country we are fortunate to be born in and be a part of will stand by everyone in our collective hour of need.
For sure some people will be placed under significant financial stress but will we as a nation stand by and allow people to lose homes, livelihoods and loved ones without fighting.
I truly and honestly believe not.

 

[king_dezeeuw06]

As the French government has been illegally propping up all their businesses for decades it's hardly a further stretch for Msr Macron to announce this

It's state aid which Italy got fined 7.5b for about 2 days ago regarding their hotel industry in Sardinia. Considering the day before the EU said they'd stand with Italy during this crisis they've got a funny way of showing it.

You know France won't get fined though while Italy do.