Score Predictions & Match Thread: Belgium & England | Page 2 | Vital Football

Score Predictions & Match Thread: Belgium & England

clanfordimp said:
Because it gives him a 50/50 chance of saving anything that is on target. The more steps he takes to one side or the other from his middle position reduces his odds on saving anything. The wall is a deterrent but can also act as a marker for the attacking player. As I have said before IF the attacker gets it in the top corner or as near to the post as possible and the keeper is one or two paces the other way from the centre of his goal it goes in. Hes got too much ground to make up and the ball is travelling too fast for him to do anything about it. You will see keepers making lots of saves and shots going high and wide but that is because the free kick taker hasn't got it exactly right.
I would love to see a team brave enough to not line up with a wall from a free kick 19-20 yadrs out. That would be interesting.
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But that doesn't answer the question, just reinforces your belief that the keeper should be in the middle of the goal? If the keeper is in the middle of the goal, does he need a wall or not?
 
Sincilbanks said:
But that doesn't answer the question, just reinforces your belief that the keeper should be in the middle of the goal? If the keeper is in the middle of the goal, does he need a wall or not?
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There aren't as many goals scored direct from free kicks as people imagine, probably because those are endlessly replayed.

The best in the world score from around 1 in 15 attempts (Messi's career success rate is higher at 1 in 12, Ronaldo's is around 1 in 15).

As the average for scoring as the result of a corner is 1 in 30 (for any team), free kicks outside the box aren't really that scary at all - and everyone assembles a wall.

If a team didn't that rate would almost certainly go up, after all penalty success rate is 75% on average and, even allowing for the increased distance from goal, without any barrier the free kick taker gets to pick his spot unimpeded, with the added advantage of many more rebounds and deflections along the way. After all, if you don't have a wall doesn't everyone stand closer to the goal?

Rather than question the wall, the issue should be looked at from the other side - don't shoot directly all the time, try something different
 
Brendan Bradley said:
There aren't as many goals scored direct from free kicks as people imagine, probably because those are endlessly replayed.

The best in the world score from around 1 in 15 attempts (Messi's career success rate is higher at 1 in 12, Ronaldo's is around 1 in 15).

As the average for scoring as the result of a corner is 1 in 30 (for any team), free kicks outside the box aren't really that scary at all - and everyone assembles a wall.

If a team didn't that rate would almost certainly go up, after all penalty success rate is 75% on average and, even allowing for the increased distance from goal, without any barrier the free kick taker gets to pick his spot unimpeded, with the added advantage of many more rebounds and deflections along the way. After all, if you don't have a wall doesn't everyone stand closer to the goal?

Rather than question the wall, the issue should be looked at from the other side - don't shoot directly all the time, try something different
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Of course everyone assembles a wall, the question is if the keeper is "correctly" positioned in the middle of the goal, why does he need a wall...
 
Sincilbanks said:
So the wall reduces goals from direct free kicks? Why?
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My theory is that a human shield - say 6 feet high and 12 feet wide statistically must save some (more goals) than if it wasn't there; especially when you consider that wall is in effect further narrowing the angle for rising or bending shots.

When you see how many on target free kicks hit the wall it would be logical to say that some of those would have resulted in goals either because they would be un-saveable by the time they reached the keeper or even goalkeeper error having done so.

That would of course need to be offset against goals conceded due to the wall not doing it's job (people ducking for example) or un-sighting the keeper.

You can be assured that somebody, somewhere has crunched the numbers; if you consider that Sam Allardyce ran a logarithm to establish more mundane issues like where most balls dropped when cleared from the penalty area at corners.
 
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Sincilbanks said:
But that doesn't answer the question, just reinforces your belief that the keeper should be in the middle of the goal? If the keeper is in the middle of the goal, does he need a wall or not?
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Yes, the wall provides a bit of insurance but if the keeper has lined up the wall and then takes up a position which is one or two steps from the centre of the goal and the player executes the free kick perfectly it goes in. It is a combination of the wall and more crucially goalkeeper positioning and whether the player taking the free kick gets his technique right as to where the ball ends up. More times than not though it's the free kick taker that gets it wrong. If they get it right with or without a wall the keeper wouldn't be able to do much about it if the free kick is executed perfectly.
 
clanfordimp said:
Yes, the wall provides a bit of insurance but if the keeper has lined up the wall and then takes up a position which is one or two steps from the centre of the goal and the player executes the free kick perfectly it goes in. It is a combination of the wall and more crucially goalkeeper positioning and whether the player taking the free kick gets his technique right as to where the ball ends up. More times than not though it's the free kick taker that gets it wrong. If they get it right with or without a wall the keeper wouldn't be able to do much about it if the free kick is executed perfectly.
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So why does the keeper have a wall? What "extra insurance" does it provide?
 
clanfordimp said:
Yes, the wall provides a bit of insurance but if the keeper has lined up the wall and then takes up a position which is one or two steps from the centre of the goal and the player executes the free kick perfectly it goes in. It is a combination of the wall and more crucially goalkeeper positioning and whether the player taking the free kick gets his technique right as to where the ball ends up. More times than not though it's the free kick taker that gets it wrong. If they get it right with or without a wall the keeper wouldn't be able to do much about it if the free kick is executed perfectly.
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