Statisticians from Frankfurt school of finance have proven that referee's tend to favour high status teams in the bundesliga.
Article in German:
http://plus.faz.net/evr-editions/2016-04-16/35567/228719.html
Break down of article:
Reason for doing it was the dreadful ref performance in the first game of the 2014 world cup (Brazil vs. Croatia)
Data from the BuLi from 2000 to 2014 (4248 1. Bundesliga games)
It’s about penalty calls, offside calls and other not given goals. Categorized in right decisions, wrong decisions and controversial decisions, only wrong decisions were used.
The researches thought they would find no connection, but they were flabbergasted when the link showed this clearly.
The effect gets larger with a growing gap between the status of the teams, so Dortmund vs Leverkusen --> Small effect; Köln vs. Stuttgart --> small effect; Bayern vs. Augsburg --> large effect
Also an effect when teams “need it more”, so a team fighting relegation vs. a team that already sits comfortable in mid-table at the end of the season might be favored, same with a team that still fights for CL spots vs. one that has nothing to win/lose anymore.
There is a ref bonus for home teams and it gets bigger the more people the stadium holds.
”The biggest effect is by far with Bayern München. […] The likelihood that a clear penalty isn’t given to a team with small status against Bayern is THREE TIMES HIGHER than the statistical average.”
The researchers calculated the significance of this effect for every team and it’s only showing with Bayern.
The effect for Bayern is so big, that it cancels out any home-ref-advantage of any team in the BuLi by a significant margin.
TL;DR, the Bayern Bonus Germany always rants about at the Stammtisch is very real, statistically significant and provable.
Refs get better, the effect as a whole went down year after year, but only a bit, and absolutely negligible when it comes to Bayern.
Proposed solution: Video refereeing.
Article in German:
http://plus.faz.net/evr-editions/2016-04-16/35567/228719.html
Break down of article:
Reason for doing it was the dreadful ref performance in the first game of the 2014 world cup (Brazil vs. Croatia)
Data from the BuLi from 2000 to 2014 (4248 1. Bundesliga games)
It’s about penalty calls, offside calls and other not given goals. Categorized in right decisions, wrong decisions and controversial decisions, only wrong decisions were used.
The researches thought they would find no connection, but they were flabbergasted when the link showed this clearly.
The effect gets larger with a growing gap between the status of the teams, so Dortmund vs Leverkusen --> Small effect; Köln vs. Stuttgart --> small effect; Bayern vs. Augsburg --> large effect
Also an effect when teams “need it more”, so a team fighting relegation vs. a team that already sits comfortable in mid-table at the end of the season might be favored, same with a team that still fights for CL spots vs. one that has nothing to win/lose anymore.
There is a ref bonus for home teams and it gets bigger the more people the stadium holds.
”The biggest effect is by far with Bayern München. […] The likelihood that a clear penalty isn’t given to a team with small status against Bayern is THREE TIMES HIGHER than the statistical average.”
The researchers calculated the significance of this effect for every team and it’s only showing with Bayern.
The effect for Bayern is so big, that it cancels out any home-ref-advantage of any team in the BuLi by a significant margin.
TL;DR, the Bayern Bonus Germany always rants about at the Stammtisch is very real, statistically significant and provable.
Refs get better, the effect as a whole went down year after year, but only a bit, and absolutely negligible when it comes to Bayern.
Proposed solution: Video refereeing.
