Pope John XXIII
Vital Football Legend
Today our thread is sponsored by the club that the Nottingham Forest Manager spends 80% of his time talking about (Celtic 10%; others 5%; Forest 5%, all in the context of himself of course)
It's the World Champions today folks. Thankfully Forest's record against them in the last 2 years is better than that of the ex Spurs manager.
While Wolfie sits in the crowd today seething and hating every Forest fan there, the rest of us will right behind the team while they are trying, are putting in a competent performance. The crowd will be wild if we can get a result. I actually have little doubt that the crowd would sing Postecoglou's name in support should we do really well in this game, as an olive branch.
I'm looking forward to seeing football again, anyway. It feels like I've hardly seen much this season.
Now it's over to ChatGTP for the rest.
What that means for Forest: expect structured build-up but occasional quick vertical bursts; defend half-spaces (where they like to overload) and be ready for well-worked set pieces.
I was looking at this and thought it was very interesting to see what Forest's strengths and weaknesses chart looked like under Postecoglou
Practical tip: neutralise delivery into the box from set-plays and guard runners from the edge of the box (late second-phase runs).
Strengths
Problems Chelsea will pose to Forest
I’ve taken “last 5 years” to mean Forest vs Chelsea meetings roughly across the 2020–2025 window. Recent pattern (from several match histories/stat pages):
Recent specific matches (high-level):
Takeaway for Forest fans: recent years have been competitive — Forest can get a result if they control set pieces and make Chelsea defend.
Has Kavanagh ever given Forest a penalty? Yes — across his recent Premier League appointments there have been penalties awarded in games involving Forest (analyst pages list penalties across competitions he has overseen). That said, he does not have an unusually extreme penalty record vs Forest compared with other refs.
Practical note for Forest: with Peter Bankes on VAR, expect strict VAR checks of box incidents — both refereeing and VAR teams have been involved in high-profile reviews this season, so any aerial/handball/contacts in the box are likely to be examined.
It's the World Champions today folks. Thankfully Forest's record against them in the last 2 years is better than that of the ex Spurs manager.
While Wolfie sits in the crowd today seething and hating every Forest fan there, the rest of us will right behind the team while they are trying, are putting in a competent performance. The crowd will be wild if we can get a result. I actually have little doubt that the crowd would sing Postecoglou's name in support should we do really well in this game, as an olive branch.
I'm looking forward to seeing football again, anyway. It feels like I've hardly seen much this season.
Now it's over to ChatGTP for the rest.
1) Maresca’s style of play (short, tactical summary)
- Positional, possession-based build with clear influences from Pep-style positional play (Maresca’s coaching background). He asks fullbacks and inverted midfielders to create overloads in the half-spaces and expects the 6/8s to step into the lines to generate central numerical superiority. Pressing is coordinated but less frantic than extreme Gegenpress — it’s targeted, aimed at forcing rushed pass-backs and recovering the ball high. Key: structure in phases (build → progression → overloads → finish).
- Transitions matter — Chelsea will look to springwards transitions through quick vertical passes and runners from the attacking midfield/wing zones when they win the ball high.
- Set-pieces are an actively coached weapon (detailed routines; drilled corner and free-kick plays). Chelsea have worked on both delivery and routines to create high xG from set plays.
What that means for Forest: expect structured build-up but occasional quick vertical bursts; defend half-spaces (where they like to overload) and be ready for well-worked set pieces.
I was looking at this and thought it was very interesting to see what Forest's strengths and weaknesses chart looked like under Postecoglou
2) Where Chelsea’s goals tend to come from (patterns)
- Open play combination play through central progression and overloads in the half-spaces (creative midfielders/inside forwards find runners). Key creators often feed the striker or finish from late runs.
- Set-pieces — Chelsea are especially dangerous from corners/free-kicks; analytics pieces and set-piece xG trackers show Chelsea rank highly for set-piece xG in recent seasons — these are coached and produce a disproportionate share of goals. Forest should prepare specific markers and zonal cues.
- Counter-transition goals — when they win the ball high the team can exploit space behind fullbacks with quick vertical passes; expect through balls into strikers when Forest’s fullbacks are high.
- Penalties / Shots from inside the box — a smaller but consistent source; referee/VAR tendencies (discussed below) matter.
Practical tip: neutralise delivery into the box from set-plays and guard runners from the edge of the box (late second-phase runs).
3) Preferred formation(s)
- Primary: 4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3 hybrid — Maresca switches between a 4-2-3-1 (double pivot + number 10) and a 4-3-3 where one of the 8s steps into the 10 zone. This gives both width from inverted/overlapping fullbacks and central overloads.
- In-game flexibility: He will often morph to a 3-4-3 in possession via fullback inverted rotations or re-shape to a narrow 4-4-2 press when defending certain moments. Expect tactical rotations rather than a rigid system.
4) Chelsea’s away form over the last year
- Looking at the 2024/25 season and the current 2025/26 campaign, Chelsea were stronger at home than away in 24/25 (Chelsea’s 24/25 away record: 8 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses in the league) and have been patchy on the road; away points tended to be lower than home points. Recent coverage of away form in 2025/26 shows continued volatility (they’ve been better in some big away fixtures but inconsistent overall)
5) Overall strengths and weaknesses (squad problems Chelsea will pose to Forest)
Strengths
- Set-pieces & routines — well-worked, high xG from dead-balls.
- Creative midfielders & central progression (players who can break lines with passes, and midfield runners).
- Tactical structure and in-game flexibility — Maresca’s team keeps shape, rotates positions intelligently and can change phases without collapsing.
- Defensive injuries / instability — injuries to centre-backs (and recent suspensions) force changes in pairing; that reduces cohesion on set-piece defence and when dealing with second balls. Recent injury news confirms absentees.
- Inconsistency on the road — vulnerability to quick counters when fullbacks are high and occasional pressing lapses.
- Squad rotation/chemistry — heavy rotation, unsettled striker situation and injuries can blunt cutting edge at times.
Problems Chelsea will pose to Forest
- Delivered crosses from dead balls and coached corner routines (dangerous on second phases).
- Central overloads that can pull Forest’s midfield out of shape and create space for runners from deep or the fullbacks.
- Quick transitions once they win the ball high — Forest must be alert to the first 5–8 seconds after turnovers.
6) Head-to-head (Forest perspective) — last 5 years
I’ve taken “last 5 years” to mean Forest vs Chelsea meetings roughly across the 2020–2025 window. Recent pattern (from several match histories/stat pages):
- Last 5 (most recent, competitive meetings): Forest have had 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats against Chelsea in their recent run — so Chelsea hold the slight edge, but Forest have taken points and produced memorable home results. Notably, Forest’s home win at Stamford Bridge (1-0 in Sep 2023) and competitive draws have balanced the contest on several occasions.
Recent specific matches (high-level):
- 25 May 2025: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Chelsea.
- 11 May 2024: Nottingham Forest 2-3 Chelsea.
- 6 Oct 2024: Chelsea 1-1 Nottingham Forest.
- 2 Sep 2023: Chelsea 0-1 Nottingham Forest.
(These results show the rivalry has produced mixed outcomes and Forest have been no-pushovers.)
Takeaway for Forest fans: recent years have been competitive — Forest can get a result if they control set pieces and make Chelsea defend.
7) Match officials — who they are and Kavanagh’s Forest history
- Referee: Chris Kavanagh (appointed for Matchweek 8 fixtures, incl. Forest v Chelsea). VAR: Peter Bankes. (Assistants and fourth official as per official appointments list.)
- Kavanagh’s record with Forest: He has refereed many Forest matches over recent seasons. Compilations of his Forest appointments show mixed outcomes for Forest (few wins, several draws/losses). Analytics pages note he has awarded penalties in Premier League fixtures this season/year (he’s a referee who does give spot-kicks when incidents are clear), and Forest have had penalties awarded against them in some matches refereed by Kavanagh. A public referee-stats summary shows Kavanagh has officiated ~18 Forest matches with only a handful of Forest wins while in his games some penalties have been given (so he is not unusually penalty-averse).
Has Kavanagh ever given Forest a penalty? Yes — across his recent Premier League appointments there have been penalties awarded in games involving Forest (analyst pages list penalties across competitions he has overseen). That said, he does not have an unusually extreme penalty record vs Forest compared with other refs.
Practical note for Forest: with Peter Bankes on VAR, expect strict VAR checks of box incidents — both refereeing and VAR teams have been involved in high-profile reviews this season, so any aerial/handball/contacts in the box are likely to be examined.
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