Pope John XXIII
Vital Football Legend
I'm off out in a moment, so I'll leave most of the analysis to Chat GTP other than to say that 6 weeks is a long time in football and this has been a very long six weeks.
But I remember something that Ruth Davidson (former Scottish Tory leader) said about Rishi Sunak last year:
She said that he was embattled, and that was bad, because once you are embattled you are on the road to being beleaguered, and once you are beleaguered you are fucked.
Postecoglou looks pretty beleaguered to me
What that means for Forest: expect a controlled build from Newcastle, plenty of midfield rotations to create central passing lanes, and two wide players looking to either cross or cut inside. Controlling the ball in midfield and stopping quick vertical passes (Tonali → striker/wing) will be key.
Takeaway for Forest fans: Newcastle remain dangerous at SJP — the crowd and Howe’s gameplan usually push for control, but there are cracks this season (inconsistency, injuries) Forest can exploit.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Problems Newcastle will pose to Forest
VAR officer (Chris Kavanagh) has been part of VAR decisions that were controversial this season in the Premier League — he’s on the more experienced VAR panel. Expect VAR reviews on penalty/handball/clear-and-obvious errors.
Ange’s general DNA: high tempo, aggressive press, wing emphasis, quick transitions — he’ll adapt those traits to the opponent.
How I expect Forest to set up & tactical plan
Practical match tactics (for Forest coaching staff to consider):
But I remember something that Ruth Davidson (former Scottish Tory leader) said about Rishi Sunak last year:
She said that he was embattled, and that was bad, because once you are embattled you are on the road to being beleaguered, and once you are beleaguered you are fucked.
Postecoglou looks pretty beleaguered to me
1) Eddie Howe — style of play (summary for Forest fans)
- Structure & baseline: Howe’s Newcastle is built around a controlling 4-3-3 that becomes compact and vertical in midfield. He demands quick progression from deep (fullbacks + midfielders), good ball retention in the middle third and wide overloads from the wingers. When things click it looks like a team that presses in coordinated waves and then attacks with width and vertical passes into the striker.
- Pressing & block: Howe alternates between a high press (especially at St James’ Park) and a mid-block depending on opponent and personnel. At home Newcastle will often try to force opposition into risky passes and then win the ball high.
- Set-piece emphasis: They practice structured corner routines and target tall central defenders (Dan Burn, Schär) — set plays are a real weapon.
What that means for Forest: expect a controlled build from Newcastle, plenty of midfield rotations to create central passing lanes, and two wide players looking to either cross or cut inside. Controlling the ball in midfield and stopping quick vertical passes (Tonali → striker/wing) will be key.
2) Where Newcastle’s goals tend to come from (typical situations)
- Open play / wide overloads: many attacks are created by wing play (Gordon/Barnes/Elanga) combining with crosses or cutbacks into the box.
- Penalty box headers & set-pieces: they score a significant share from corners and free-kick routines aimed at tall targets (Dan Burn, Schär).
- Late central combinations / midfield runners: Tonali and Bruno supply late runs and late-box shots; long-range strikes from Tonali have also been decisive.
- Penalties / VAR-decisions: Newcastle have benefited from spot kicks in recent matches — VAR has intervened both for and against them in controversial moments this season.
3) Preferred formation(s)
- Primary: 4-3-3 (most common) — single pivot or double pivot depending on opponent, with the two advanced midfielders pushing into half-spaces.
- Variants: Howe will sometimes morph to 4-2-3-1 (if wanting more defensive cover) or shift the right/left fullback higher to create 3-man central overloads in transition. He’ll also tweak pressing triggers depending on Forest’s set-up.
4) Home form over the last year (what St James’ Park looks like)
- 2024/25 season: Newcastle had a strong St James’ Park season — Home PL 2024/25: W12 D2 L5 (very solid overall). That season they often used home advantage to press and create volume in the final third.
- Start of 2025/26: their early 2025/26 home form has been patchy (mixed results; example: the recent home defeat to Arsenal and some inconsistent league results), so they aren’t quite the fortress they were last year. Recent cup/Europe wins have helped morale.
Takeaway for Forest fans: Newcastle remain dangerous at SJP — the crowd and Howe’s gameplan usually push for control, but there are cracks this season (inconsistency, injuries) Forest can exploit.
5) Overall strengths & weaknesses — what problems Newcastle will pose to Forest
Strengths
- Midfield control & quality: Bruno Guimarães + Sandro Tonali (and others) give Newcastle control and creativity; Tonali’s range and Bruno’s link play are both major threats.
- Width & set pieces: fast wingers (Gordon/Barnes) + very practiced set-piece routines (Dan Burn / Schär are strong in the box).
- Goalkeeper & aerial defence: Nick Pope’s shot-stopping and command of his area reduce easy chances for opponents.
Weaknesses
- Injury volatility & depth at full-back: injuries (e.g., Livramento out) have forced changes and can weaken transitional balance on the right if Trippier replaces him.
- Inconsistent finishing at times: this season they have had spells where high possession didn’t produce many goals — they can be underwhelming if Tonali/Isak (or their focal striker) are neutralised.
- Susceptible to quick counters if stretched: when their fullbacks push high and the press is bypassed quickly, they can be exposed on the break.
Problems Newcastle will pose to Forest
- Central overloads from Tonali/Bruno that will try to pick passes in the half-spaces and feed a mobile striker; Forest must deny time for those midfielders.
- Crossing & set-pieces — defending corners and deep crosses will be vital (Dan Burn/Schär are aerial threats).
- Pressing traps — if Forest play out from the back, Newcastle’s press can force rushed passes; Postecoglou will have to prepare quick release patterns.
6) Match officials for Newcastle v Nottingham Forest (today)
- Referee: Peter Bankes.
- Assistants: Eddie Smart, Blake Antrobus.
- Fourth official: Rob (or Robert) Jones.
- VAR: Chris Kavanagh (Assistant VAR Simon Bennett).
Has Peter Bankes ever given Forest a penalty? / his recent record refereeing Forest
- Bankes has officiated multiple Forest matches in recent seasons. Public match logs and referee-stat pages show he has awarded penalties in matches he’s refereed and has been involved in controversial VAR/penalty decisions affecting Forest (both awarded and overturned). In short: yes — he’s been on matches where penalties were awarded / not awarded involving Forest, and fans will remember at least one instance where a Forest penalty claim was overturned after VAR review.
- Stat/summary pages show a generally mixed but not hostile record with Forest: some Forest wins when he’s officiated historically, but also a number of contentious VAR moments.
VAR officer (Chris Kavanagh) has been part of VAR decisions that were controversial this season in the Premier League — he’s on the more experienced VAR panel. Expect VAR reviews on penalty/handball/clear-and-obvious errors.
7) How Ange Postecoglou will likely try to set Forest up to win this game
Ange’s general DNA: high tempo, aggressive press, wing emphasis, quick transitions — he’ll adapt those traits to the opponent.
How I expect Forest to set up & tactical plan
- Formation: likely 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 fitted to counter Newcastle’s wide threat — a double pivot to block Tonali/Bruno’s forward passing lanes. Postecoglou likes to use two midfielders to screen and a high line of pressure when appropriate.
- Exploit the channels: force Newcastle wide and isolate fullback spaces — if Newcastle push fullbacks high, Forest can use quick vertical switches and a mobile forward to exploit the gap between fullback and centre-back.
- Neutralise Tonali/Bruno: have a disciplined midfield runner (or two) stick close to Tonali and deny him clean turns — quick double-team triggers around him.
- Counter-press & quick transitions: when Newcastle lose the ball in advanced areas, Forest must counter quickly (Ange’s teams recover possession fast and attack vertical channels) — this is the best way to make SJP uncomfortable.
- Set-piece focus: be extra careful defending corners and crosses (use zonal + man markers for big targets) — try to limit Dan Burn/Schär’s half-turns and second balls.
Practical match tactics (for Forest coaching staff to consider):
- Low block early to absorb pressure, then press in blocks when Newcastle build from deep (flip triggers around back-passes).
- Use quick outlets (wide men) and route one forward to run in behind the centre-backs if Newcastle’s fullbacks are high.
- Make the refereeing/VAR environment work for you: avoid rash tackles in the area (gives Newcastle set pieces/penalties) and be ready to appeal if there’s a real foul — Bankes/Kavanagh are active in VAR checks.
