Now I am not convinced that the increase in attendance is down to new fans. I think rather, that it is an increased level of attendance from existing fans. So lets play with some numbers. If pre-Cowley 2,000 of the crowd went nearly every week then between 1,000-1,500 of each gate was made up of existing supporters who went less regularly. If we go with 25 home games a season; if there are 25,000 dormant/occasional supporters and they averaged 1 game a season that would make up the 3-3,500 average attendance. If they got excited by the club and went to 2 games a season that would increase the average attendance to between 4-4,500 per season. 5 extra games would be 8,000 - 8,500 average attendances. Don't forget the spread here though, an average of one game per season will include those who go to 15 games or more down to those who go once every few seasons but an average increase of 5 games per season per person is all that is required to nearly treble the average attendance.
Now that clearly isn't everything that is happening. There was a massive spike in season ticket purchases, but again is this driven by 'newbies', or by 'regulars' thinking if I already go to 10-15 games per season it makes sense to get a season ticket if I find myself going to 15-20 games per season and anyway it is getting busier and I can't always sit where I want to. Then there are the regulars who add another seat for family and friends so that they can sit together.
I am not saying that there aren't converts or kids choosing to go local where their predecessors went Premier League, or students who get sucked along for the ride, but I just think we shouldn't underestimate the power and breadth of the base once it gets enthused. You only have to look into your own wardrobes to see if you have a shirt or two, or a scarf or two, or a programme that you have bought and tot up how many times you have done that over the years. I bet most Newbies haven't spent nearly as much.
There was an interesting article on how a relatively small number of super-fans attending games are worth massively more in income to Premier League teams than thousands of distant supporters in Asia.
* This is the point where Liam and/or Clive come on and shoot me down in flames because their fan survey suggests that all of the growth is from new support.