Just taxied back from our stunning city,cold & deserted,hopefully the homeless all have a bed for the night & looked at our remaining fixtures over a gin.
Can see us getting a maximum of 9 points.
Tubby sailing close to the wind.
Can't see this lot garnering more than 10 points out of the remaining games. Puts us on 34. We went down last time with 37 and there's a lot of teams on similar points this year. Only West Brom are a little adrift. Just hope Staveley comes back in and gets us for a song.
I think when we predict the Toon games, we generally understate things whilst ignoring the stats.
Out of our last 10 games played, we have gained 11 points. A similar number will just see us over the line in my opinion as I reckon 37 points will be the cut off this time.
Out of the last 10 games, we have played Man City twice, played Arsenal away when they weren't under much pressure and faced a Man Utd side that had already scored 4 away at the likes of Swansea and Watford plus won comfortably away at Arsenal and Everton amongst many places.
Our main blip this season aside from not finishing the many chances created, has been when Lascelles has been out injured, that 1 point out of 27 available has kept us in an interesting position for many because if the average had been kept with Lascelles not out then we could potentially have another 9 points on top of what we have now.
I know hindsight and other permutations come into it but the stats back up the importance of Lascelles to our season where he's like the cement in the brick work to keep it together.
Everyone is expecting a battering tomorrow but this isn't a Pardew or Carver team and a point would be an excellent result although with many winnable games still left, we're not under as much pressure this time compared to two years ago.
The telling thing is that phrase "Tubby sailing close to the wind".
We can all look back and ask what if Rafa had only been given £20m more to spend. What could we have got for Mitro + £10 and Gayle + £10m. Chances are that we could have been safe by now. Instead, the fat man will be looking at plenty of TV money in his bank account come the end of the season.
Personally, I feel the outcome will depend on how many games Slimani plays in. Rafa can set the team up well but it needs a bit of quality to finish.
Southampton becomes a big game psychologically before a 3 week break, then Huddersfield is winnable. West Brom makes it 9 points with Leicester, Watford and Everton having little to play for. Hopefully, Chelsea and Spurs may have other things on their mind and Arsenal can be vulnerable.
I reckon we have just enough to stay ahead of West Brom, Stoke, Palace, Swansea and Southampton.