O/T The Future | Vital Football

O/T The Future

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This should be a fairly spirited conversation when Spursex realizes I am right. And he is wrong. Watch for the "I hope you're right 80 but....." comments! Basing this on the response to NRD's post.

We're going to be fine. 3D printing, more politically secure supply chains and job creation will be the name of the game.

It's going to be good for everyone who wants to work. Nothing replaces hard work.
 
I don't share your optimism.

Hard work is a slogan out of context. People who worked hard all their lives will see good paying jobs cut and would be forced into manual labor and a lifestyle of survival.

There are always low paying jobs in abundance, but the middle class will shrink even further.

And the rich will get richer.
 
I think the future will be very different for different people...the impact on the business world in general as countries look at their global trading policies could lead to changes in the profiles of business sectors within each country perhaps moving more to manufacturing and away from services but any such change needs money to fuel it and that relies on domestic economies being active and that is likely to take some time.

Reading between the lines of the latest government announcements it seems that restrictions will not be lifted for the majority for at least another month and that us oldies will still be confined after that until such time as they deem the NHS capable of taking us in to die when we are released into the genpop.

So for me personally I don’t see a future anytime soon ( if that’s not an oxymoron)...I just see the current situation stretching on beyond the horizon of hope....
 
Apologies 80 maybe I've missed the conversation but are you talking about the future in relation to coronavirus or in general? Of course we, most of us anyway, will be fine after the coronavirus but are you expecting fundamental changes in the fabric of our society and economy set up? I can't say I share that view. There will be some sectors that will have to change or maybe change as a result of disaster capitalism (for better or for worse) but really once things stabilise people will go back to doing things the way they were before to make cheap money with an attitude of "that's a once in a lifetime event we won't have to worry about that again".

Unless you have a government who are willing to invest big in getting the economy kickstarted and with the purpose of chsnge (
knowing that it will likely take long time before benefits are seen...) I doubt we'll be sitting here next year seeing too much change.
 
There's definitely many variables going on. In the workplace, we have seen a grand effort to create equal opportunity and in some workplaces it has swung to positive bias. It will be interesting now to see whether a true level playing field is created with perhaps a small bias for homegrown people and homegrown products. That's down to government policy just like we see in other places in the world. I know it's been on Trump's agenda and how he wins votes.

Where I'm concerned is that we just wasted 3 to 4 years in the Brexit conversation here in the UK and have taken on significant burden on the economy with the Coronavirus pandemic. Common sense would say that the compound effect of the 2 things have to impact our country especially with no Brexit details being in play. It's mostly just words at this stage and a real threat of becoming the 51st state.

I think you will see a shift all the way through the workforce with salaries decreasing in the fairly / well paid jobs through to minimum wages workers even shifting to zero hours contract status. That will create a short term inequity between standard and cost of living. That was already happening anyway. Just ask a millennial trying to afford a house and start a family.

I think we're going to be in a very tough 3-5 year cycle regardless of how hard we work.
 
This should be a fairly spirited conversation when Spursex realizes I am right. And he is wrong. Watch for the "I hope you're right 80 but....." comments! Basing this on the response to NRD's post.

We're going to be fine. 3D printing, more politically secure supply chains and job creation will be the name of the game.

It's going to be good for everyone who wants to work. Nothing replaces hard work.

Also, kudos to you for starting this thread. With us all being so geographically dispersed and different backgrounds, it will be intriguing hearing everyone's view.
 
There's definitely many variables going on. In the workplace, we have seen a grand effort to create equal opportunity and in some workplaces it has swung to positive bias. It will be interesting now to see whether a true level playing field is created with perhaps a small bias for homegrown people and homegrown products. That's down to government policy just like we see in other places in the world. I know it's been on Trump's agenda and how he wins votes.

Where I'm concerned is that we just wasted 3 to 4 years in the Brexit conversation here in the UK and have taken on significant burden on the economy with the Coronavirus pandemic. Common sense would say that the compound effect of the 2 things have to impact our country especially with no Brexit details being in play. It's mostly just words at this stage and a real threat of becoming the 51st state.

I think you will see a shift all the way through the workforce with salaries decreasing in the fairly / well paid jobs through to minimum wages workers even shifting to zero hours contract status. That will create a short term inequity between standard and cost of living. That was already happening anyway. Just ask a millennial trying to afford a house and start a family.

I think we're going to be in a very tough 3-5 year cycle regardless of how hard we work.

At this point there is no way to gauge potential Brexit risk vs staying in the EU and taking the share risk of bailout via collateral debt, which would disproportionately fall on German/UK shoulders.

It's looking more likely that the latter is a much bigger threat.
 
At this point there is no way to gauge potential Brexit risk vs staying in the EU and taking the share risk of bailout via collateral debt, which would disproportionately fall on German/UK shoulders.

It's looking more likely that the latter is a much bigger threat.

I think you're right. Looking after number 1 is going to be easier now we're not saddled with the 22 or 23 members that were taking rather than putting in. It's not going to be easy either way and I have a feeling Mr Trump sees a business opportunity in the UK.

I've had a great living out of working for US companies, but not sure that is the best way to go.
 
I think you're right. Looking after number 1 is going to be easier now we're not saddled with the 22 or 23 members that were taking rather than putting in. It's not going to be easy either way and I have a feeling Mr Trump sees a business opportunity in the UK.

I've had a great living out of working for US companies, but not sure that is the best way to go.

The cynic in me thinks that the EU will be under more pressure to conclude a deal, which might play in everyone's favors.

With recession hitting globally, this might well hold true for all other countries we're negotiating with.

Trump will need to score some 'wins' before election and he too will make concessions.
 
The cynic in me thinks that the EU will be under more pressure to conclude a deal, which might play in everyone's favors.

With the recession hitting globally, this might well hold true for all other countries we're negotiating with.

Trump will need to score some 'wins' before election and he too will make concessions.

If fate plays a part in outcomes (which I believe is utterly random, but random events always influence outcomes) then our timing to remove ourselves from the EU was fateful.

The focus will remain on public funding to aid recovery; different sections of the economy will move at different speeds - globally. There will be a strong desire by the political elite to have a reckoning with China and a much bigger effort to fight China's global economic influences and policies.

Governments of all colours will now have to contend with being a borrow and spend government which will inevitably lead to taxation rises which will suppress the activities of the risk-takers, the do'ers, and the wealth creators - as always there will be those who see this as the perfect time for a socialist make-over (those calls are already being made as everyone now forgets the lessons of history) - moving forward governments will be indirectly nationalising all sorts of industries - and as they always do will make a horrendous pig's ear of them.

There are some serious thinkers who believe that one way or another China should be picking up the tab for what it's caused, whether that's directly or by a big increase in tariffs against Chinese made and Chinese owned imports. Trump was right to warn about China's behavior generally and now he has something to beat them with specifically. We must take heed and stop our slumbering walk into their complete domination - they cannot be trusted, on any level over anything.

The EU has concluded a 'coronobonds' type re-financing, but it's only 540 billion and will have to be much larger to get the Southern EU states (including France) back on their feet and into economic recovery and growth.

It almost once again tore the EU apart and ended the Euro (which will stop the EU countries from controlling their own destiny and recovery yet again).

There will be no quick painless rebound; how long recovery takes will all depend on how long this goes on for.
 
I also think about the end of career folks seeing their pension funds tank in these last couple of months. It's a well know fact that a high percentage of the population don't have the pension provisions in place to enjoy old age. It's of course hard for the millennials and Gen Z but at least they have the runway in their lives to achieve wealth. I couldn't imagine being a 66/67 year old planning for their retirement in mid 2020 and seeing what has just happened to their fund.
 
At this point there is no way to gauge potential Brexit risk vs staying in the EU and taking the share risk of bailout via collateral debt, which would disproportionately fall on German/UK shoulders.

It's looking more likely that the latter is a much bigger threat.


Always was with Italy et al in a tail spin.
 
Here are some stats for you, a couple of years old:

US Income tax payer structure

Top 5% is (adjusted gross income) $210.000+ pay 60% of all collected income tax

The top 1% pay 40% of all collected income tax

The bottom 90% pay 30% of all collected income tax
 
I also think about the end of career folks seeing their pension funds tank in these last couple of months. It's a well know fact that a high percentage of the population don't have the pension provisions in place to enjoy old age. It's of course hard for the millennials and Gen Z but at least they have the runway in their lives to achieve wealth. I couldn't imagine being a 66/67 year old planning for their retirement in mid 2020 and seeing what has just happened to their fund.

It will bounce back - it's only a problem if you have to cash in anytime in my view in the next 3 years, after that you will have a massive bull run imho for around 4-5v years as economies will have restructured taken the pain and move on.

This is not like the credit crunch were funds weren't readily available to invest, in fact if anything Central Banks will have to work hard to curb governments' desire to refloat the economy with non-stop cash.

The long term debt is where the innovation will have to come in.
 
Here are some stats for you, a couple of years old:

US Income tax payer structure

Top 5% is (adjusted gross income) $210.000+ pay 60% of all collected income tax

The top 1% pay 40% of all collected income tax

The bottom 90% pay 30% of all collected income tax

Pretty much on a par with the UK, the stats don't vary much from western Country to Country, so the 27% that pay most of the taxes in the UK will be the main target for tax pressures - but I think we'll go down the indirect and top end consumer tax routes unless we bring in a 5-10 years fix emergency tax to ease funding pressures - but under the conservatives, I think they'll try and resist that pressure.
 
Pretty much on a par with the UK, the stats don't vary much from western Country to Country, so the 27% that pay most of the taxes in the UK will be the main target for tax pressures - but I think we'll go down the indirect and top end consumer tax routes unless we bring in a 5-10 years fix emergency tax to ease funding pressures - but under the conservatives, I think they'll try and resist that pressure.


100 year bonds. You watch.
 
On an epoch basis this is a good thing. On a generational basis for the developed nations it is not.

The developed nations have to innovate and evolve and move on. We are only at the start of the upheavals that new technologies will bring, and when there is upheaval there is the opportunity to rapidly evolve.
 
Here are some stats for you, a couple of years old:

US Income tax payer structure

Top 5% is (adjusted gross income) $210.000+ pay 60% of all collected income tax

The top 1% pay 40% of all collected income tax

The bottom 90% pay 30% of all collected income tax

Top 5% in the UK is £80k, my god I need to move my ass to the US.