O/T housing market | Page 2 | Vital Football

O/T housing market

That is surprising to see. But I wonder how much of that is due to people who were planning on buying haven't been able to do so for the last few months so essentially 3 months worth of customers are all coming in at once.

Is the real concern with house prices not more on the 1 - 5 year outlook rather than the immediate post lock down? If the economy is struggling and there is high unemployment for an extend period of time, people start to struggle to pay for their mortgages and demand drops and with it the prices.

As somebody who doesn't own a house but planning on buying in the next few years, I can't figure out if I'm in a lucky position or a bad one...
 
That is surprising to see. But I wonder how much of that is due to people who were planning on buying haven't been able to do so for the last few months so essentially 3 months worth of customers are all coming in at once.

Is the real concern with house prices not more on the 1 - 5 year outlook rather than the immediate post lock down? If the economy is struggling and there is high unemployment for an extend period of time, people start to struggle to pay for their mortgages and demand drops and with it the prices.

As somebody who doesn't own a house but planning on buying in the next few years, I can't figure out if I'm in a lucky position or a bad one...


From what I'm hearing and reading, I'd say there a number of factors;

as you say, pent up demand, surprisingly the pandemic has had little effect on those who were thinking of buying pre-pandemic.

Secondly, there is a growing awareness that a house is for living and can't or shouldn't be viewed as a short -term investment - this 'influence' has been growing for some time since the new taxes around buy to let has come in along with higher stamp duties( taxation always changes behaviour).

It looks like our economy is going to shrink in the short term between 8-13% (depending on who you listen to), overall that means a 10% drop in sales with perhaps a 5-7% drop in values short term.

So to answer your question, I'd say you might find you can enter slightly cheaper, but it doesn't look like it's going to be a catastrophic drop.
 
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Interesting to see the predictions of what will happen to the housing market. My gut is that it'll potentially fall further than any of these predictions and they're perhaps trying not to create more panic around the economy.

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There will presumably be more houses on the market due to deaths among elderly who are more likely to own properties as well as sales from newly unemployed who can't keep up with mortgage payments. Plus in London/other major cities a lot of people will have left/be leaving due to Brexit. Also I know a lot of Londoners have adjusted to the slower pace of lockdown life and are now considering moving out at the earliest opportunity and with it seeming like many more companies are going to allow more regular working from home even post social distancing there will be more opportunities to live out of town whilst keeping your job.

Considering this recession is likely to hit much harder than the last one I don't see how anyone can predict a 3-7% drop with such a quick recovery.

Are there any property experts or economists who can put a more positive spin on it for me?

There is a free webinar on Rightmove this friday at 2p.m. - registration is on tehir websight it's being led by one of their founders and they'll be referencing/using all their data insights - I've signed up for it, maybe worth your while attending?
 
The world is returning to normal. The inability to travel, go out for dinner and various other activities has put more money in peoples bank accounts. Also, if you're going to be working from home do you want to do it in a flat in London?
 
So Rightmove's latest stats show that demand is outstripping supply, and the market is almost on fire - so few if any dips in selling prices!

Incredible.

And the outlook doesn't seem to me weakening at all, in fact the opposite.
 
So Rightmove's latest stats show that demand is outstripping supply, and the market is almost on fire - so few if any dips in selling prices!

Incredible.

And the outlook doesn't seem to me weakening at all, in fact the opposite.
It is incredible when you consider we are entering the worst recession in our lifetime, the threat of large-scale unemployment etc.

It will interesting to see whether the level of interest translates into transactions and at what prices the properties sell for.
 
It is incredible when you consider we are entering the worst recession in our lifetime, the threat of large-scale unemployment etc.

It will interesting to see whether the level of interest translates into transactions and at what prices the properties sell for.

60,000 transactions since release and climbing fast. Amazing.

a little evidence of discounting/price dropping in selling prices, but 97.8% of transactions met their asking price.
 
60,000 transactions since release and climbing fast. Amazing.

a little evidence of discounting/price dropping in selling prices, but 97.8% of transactions met their asking price.


Is there regional volume data available?
 
Funny thing about a half hour our ago, one of my Daughter's and I were discussing her first purchase, and it appears because of being furloughed, back now, and how tough it is for first time buyers, she has been advised by one of her finance friends to wait until about Xmas, then start looking.
 
60,000 transactions since release and climbing fast. Amazing.

a little evidence of discounting/price dropping in selling prices, but 97.8% of transactions met their asking price.

Out of them transactions how many were already on the brink of going through before lockdown happened?

I know 2 friends that were on the brink of exchanging contracts in March but then had to wait through lockdown so I'm guessing quite high.

A lot of people are still working, and many have realized how shit their neighbor's are. I would say a bit of boredom has played it's part.

Once it weans down the ladder the volume will drop massively as the money just isn't there for most people.
 
Out of them transactions how many were already on the brink of going through before lockdown happened?

I know 2 friends that were on the brink of exchanging contracts in March but then had to wait through lockdown so I'm guessing quite high.

A lot of people are still working, and many have realized how shit their neighbor's are. I would say a bit of boredom has played it's part.

Once it weans down the ladder the volume will drop massively as the money just isn't there for most people.

from the stats they provided post event, around 25% of those completions were 'ones that had been held up'.