O/T Covid-19 - Discussion for the duration of this crisis.

[Harry-Kari]

Is it a scientific estimation ?

There were 2 modelling based studies recently, one by the ONS which I think estimated around 6-7000 new infections daily and one by another group which estimated around 9000....neither figure tallies with the one published by the BBC which today was 1887.

 

[Harry-Kari]

I don’t think we should be surprised by these figures....as EX says above, and I have been predicting for some time, it is almost inevitable that without a vaccine, and given that the virus is still active, the huge number of unprotected people in the population due to lockdown is going to have the potential for an increase in infection rates just as would have happened without lockdown....the difference now is that we have social distancing awareness which will make a big difference but will not kill off the virus.

Having said that, the huge majority of infections will not result in death, but it remains a risk....the question for the government, and the people is whether they are prepared to take the risk to protect the economy and the social fabric of society....I think a George Osborne summed it up in a short quote in his weekend interview when he said “if everyone stays indoors we all go broke”.

 

[Nick Real Deal]

The Office for National Statistics are reporting that the latest weekly compiled figures show that just under 8,000 a day are being infected. This is in an article today in The Times which quotes the ONS.

If that is an accurate estimation that seems high to me. I guess there is a high number of cases that report symptoms and are self isolated but not officially tested.

 

[Nick Real Deal]

One of the 5 pillars of relaxing the lockdown was infection rate down. Down to what ? 9000 or 2000. Tested or untested infections. ? We are relaxing with infections far higher than other Countries like S Korea who have had to do a U turn.

 

[Gary Onedaysoon]

There were 2 modelling based studies recently, one by the ONS which I think estimated around 6-7000 new infections daily and one by another group which estimated around 9000....neither figure tallies with the one published by the BBC which today was 1887.

If that is an accurate estimation that seems high to me. I guess there is a high number of cases that report symptoms and are self isolated but not officially tested.

The BBC figure doesn't include unconfirmed cases, does it?

You also need to factor in the number of people who are carrying the virus but don't show symptoms, although how you calculate a realistic figure for that, I don't know.

But if you think there are around 2,000 new confirmed cases, 8,000-9,000 unconfirmed cases doesn't seem that high to me.

 

[SheringhamNo10]

Im back home in Ireland now, moved back in 2016 after 28 years in London. My mum and sister are still in the South East of England.

Ive been following the briefings in both countries. I know the population sizes are vastly different but the way in which the challenge is being dealt with are polars apart.

Our death rate now is in the 0-15 daily with infections avg 50 per day, with hardly any of those in the community. My local hospital has 0 confimed cases currently and 4 awating test results.

My brother in law is with border force in Dover, went to hospital yesterday with suspected appendix, only to be told after x-rays that it was suspected covid. No test just diagnosed due to image of lungs. Sent home to issolate for 7 days, his wife must issolate for 14 days. He hasnt been contacted regarding contacts as yet?

 

[Greavswasthegreatest]

Im back home in Ireland now, moved back in 2016 after 28 years in London. My mum and sister are still in the South East of England.

Ive been following the briefings in both countries. I know the population sizes are vastly different but the way in which the challenge is being dealt with are polars apart.

Our death rate now is in the 0-15 daily with infections avg 50 per day, with hardly any of those in the community. My local hospital has 0 confimed cases currently and 4 awating test results.

My brother in law is with border force in Dover, went to hospital yesterday with suspected appendix, only to be told after x-rays that it was suspected covid. No test just diagnosed due to image of lungs. Sent home to issolate for 7 days, his wife must issolate for 14 days. He hasnt been contacted regarding contacts as yet?

Welcome Sheringham....sorry to hear about your family.....hope all works out ok for them mate.

Weird an appendix is in a completely different part of the torso (lower) to the lungs (upper) ....are you implyingCorvid gave him the symptom of appendicitis or was it maybe a grumbling appendix and they xrayed his whole torso as a matter of course and saw the lungs?

Cheers keep posting

 

[Greavswasthegreatest]

Dilema of easing lockdown for mainly many of us over 60's...

I see great pressure looming
Wanting to see family
Family wanting to see us
Trying to get some normality back
Considering going out more
Deciding what is safe v risky things to do
Other people becoming complacent and letting distancing slip
Almost paranoia of 'going out' and preferring to stay in and safe until a vaccine (hopefully)
Will it evolve into a phobia/fear of mixing and leaving the safe house..almost agraphobic tendencies
Versus fear of new spike or catching a bad dose of the virus

Wow sad isn't it!

 

[Nick Real Deal]

Prof John Edmonds is a SAGE advisor and he has said today he and other scientists would like both deaths and infections at lower levels before any relaxation of the rules. There is also an issue with regional figures. The North East has the highest levels but comes under the same rules as London for example. How can it be blanket ruled ?

 

[Departed]

Dilema of easing lockdown for mainly many of us over 60's...

I see great pressure looming
Wanting to see family
Family wanting to see us
Trying to get some normality back
Considering going out more
Deciding what is safe v risky things to do
Other people becoming complacent and letting distancing slip
Almost paranoia of 'going out' and preferring to stay in and safe until a vaccine (hopefully)
Will it evolve into a phobia/fear of mixing and leaving the safe house..almost agraphobic tendencies
Versus fear of new spike or catching a bad dose of the virus

Wow sad isn't it!

Yes.

 

[Walthamstow wanderer]

Dilema of easing lockdown for mainly many of us over 60's...

I see great pressure looming
Wanting to see family
Family wanting to see us
Trying to get some normality back
Considering going out more
Deciding what is safe v risky things to do
Other people becoming complacent and letting distancing slip
Almost paranoia of 'going out' and preferring to stay in and safe until a vaccine (hopefully)
Will it evolve into a phobia/fear of mixing and leaving the safe house..almost agraphobic tendencies
Versus fear of new spike or catching a bad dose of the virus

Wow sad isn't it!

Spot on Greavsie . Couldn’t have put it better . I just know we are being saved for the second wave . I ain’t going to fall for it . Trouble is , exactly as you say , others will bring complacency and pressure on us and our own longing for our families will become overbearing . There are awful times ahead . Football will not be high on the awful list , for me to worry about .

 

[Harry-Kari]

Dilema of easing lockdown for mainly many of us over 60's...

I see great pressure looming
Wanting to see family
Family wanting to see us
Trying to get some normality back
Considering going out more
Deciding what is safe v risky things to do
Other people becoming complacent and letting distancing slip
Almost paranoia of 'going out' and preferring to stay in and safe until a vaccine (hopefully)
Will it evolve into a phobia/fear of mixing and leaving the safe house..almost agraphobic tendencies
Versus fear of new spike or catching a bad dose of the virus

Wow sad isn't it!

Get a grip Greavsie...live life how you want while respecting other’s boundaries...otherwise you’ll finish up worrying into an early grave without the help of the virus

 

[SheringhamNo10]

Welcome Sheringham....sorry to hear about your family.....hope all works out ok for them mate.

Weird an appendix is in a completely different part of the torso (lower) to the lungs (upper) ....are you implyingCorvid gave him the symptom of appendicitis or was it maybe a grumbling appendix and they xrayed his whole torso as a matter of course and saw the lungs?

Cheers keep posting[/QUO

Cheers Greavsie, I too was very surprised that what started out as a stomach ache overnight turned into suspected covid a day later. Whether his stomach ache was a symptom of covid I have no idea, no clear explanation at present. I will say however that I myself was ill around 6 weeks ago, no energy, no appetite, strange gastro symptoms. It lasted 2 1/2 weeks and it was closer to 4 weeks before i felt back to normal. I was interested reading RD's posts at the time describing his own symptoms.

 

[Greavswasthegreatest]

Get a grip Greavsie...live life how you want while respecting other’s boundaries...otherwise you’ll finish up worrying into an early grave without the help of the virus

I gave up worrying years ago mate...more like observations for discussion...which it has...however I do not see the point of much socialising at the moment e.g having a family barbeque and having to ask them to bring their own cutlery and plates and not allowing them to use the loo FFS and going to a restaurant or pub in due course and sitting on a remote table with weird or no atmosphere or a spectatored footie match sitting 3 seats apart i'll stick to the TV or go on a plane and share enclosed spaces and recycled air - no thanks! ...not for me mate! That will not be enjoyable ....but feel free to live your life and go for it! ...and bon chance...I do not want a feckin hosepipe pushed down my throat into my lungs personally so yep I think I'll hibernate for longer and see what the easing leads to (which is far too early IMO) and a decision driven by money not the country's health.

 

[Real Deal]

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks and months once the schools are back and other businesses open. No doubt we will get a big spike.

If I had kids I wouldn't let them go back to school yet. I would sit back and see what happens first. It's not worth the risk at this stage.

 

[Harry-Kari]

I gave up worrying years ago mate...more like observations for discussion...which it has...however I do not see the point of much socialising at the moment e.g having a family barbeque and having to ask them to bring their own cutlery and plates and not allowing them to use the loo FFS and going to a restaurant or pub in due course and sitting on a remote table with weird or no atmosphere or a spectatored footie match sitting 3 seats apart i'll stick to the TV or go on a plane and share enclosed spaces and recycled air - no thanks! ...not for me mate! That will not be enjoyable ....but feel free to live your life and go for it! ...and bon chance...I do not want a feckin hosepipe pushed down my throat into my lungs personally so yep I think I'll hibernate for longer and see what the easing leads to (which is far too early IMO) and a decision driven by money not the country's health.

Exactly Greavsie...life life the way you want in whatever circumstances prevail...one way or another we all fall down for ever....noone knows when or how.

 

[Gary Onedaysoon]

A friend of a friend's wife works as a receptionist at our local hospital. Apparently a lot of nurses are falling ill with respiratory symptoms. They've tested negative for Covid but they suspect that it's due to wearing masks and other PPE all shift. The theory is unproven yet though.

 

[Greavswasthegreatest]

A friend of a friend's wife works as a receptionist at our local hospital. Apparently a lot of nurses are falling ill with respiratory symptoms. They've tested negative for Covid but they suspect that it's due to wearing masks and other PPE all shift. The theory is unproven yet though.

i wear a mask when I know I am going into a supermarket/closed indoor space and it sometimes makes me cough after wearing it for 'not' too long, so I can imagine what you say has legs.

 

[Pompey Yid]

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks and months once the schools are back and other businesses open. No doubt we will get a big spike.

If I had kids I wouldn't let them go back to school yet. I would sit back and see what happens first. It's not worth the risk at this stage.

I couldn't agree more about having kids and not taking the risk by letting them go to school, also, I bet that you wouldn't take them to a packed beach either like some of them do.

 

[Spursex]

Prof John Edmonds is a SAGE advisor and he has said today he and other scientists would like both deaths and infections at lower levels before any relaxation of the rules. There is also an issue with regional figures. The North East has the highest levels but comes under the same rules as London for example. How can it be blanket ruled ?

It's the big debate the scientists I know and have worked with, are all opposed to the easying of the rules and thinks that isolation should have carried on until August/Sept/October - but my two doctor friends said they are now twiddling thumbs and getting ready for the next wave and now was the time to ease up and give people a break before the second (more deadly, in their view) wave comes at the start of the 'traditional' cold and flu season., they think a second lockdown will be inevitable unless the inoculation/vaccine is seen to work.