O/T Covid-19 - Discussion for the duration of this crisis. | Page 112 | Vital Football

O/T Covid-19 - Discussion for the duration of this crisis.

Spursex said:
I'm not sure what you're point is anymore - that we shouldn't have had a lockdown and we should have just let it rip, so had double, maybe even triple the deaths?

The lockdown has worked, but we now have a regional issue where some have and are still following social distancing rules and some aren't (mainly up 'north) and there the infection remains stubbornly higher than elsewhere.

If as some scientists are predicting it slows almost to a dead halt because of the measures taken by the end of June, then the lock down has been a success - the only arguable point then for me is that probably should have imposed it sooner.
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The point of this study, if the prediction is accurate, is that nowhere near enough people have been infected to produce herd immunity.

Lockdown may well have produced a large population of uninfected people but the virus isn’t going anywhere, so without a vaccine infections are bound to rise, but that doesn’t mean a doomsday pr3diction of hundreds of thousands of deaths as an estimated 95% of infected people survive and the IFR rate for the UK is yet to be accurately assessed. In many studies around the world the IFR rate is practically the same as for influenza...in some cases lower....so the issue will be has the flattening of the economy been justified....we will see.
 
Harry-Kari said:
The point of this study, if the prediction is accurate, is that nowhere near enough people have been infected to produce herd immunity.

Lockdown may well have produced a large population of uninfected people but the virus isn’t going anywhere, so without a vaccine infections are bound to rise, but that doesn’t mean a doomsday pr3diction of hundreds of thousands of deaths as an estimated 95% of infected people survive and the IFR rate for the UK is yet to be accurately assessed. In many studies around the world the IFR rate is practically the same as for influenza...in some cases lower....so the issue will be has the flattening of the economy been justified....we will see.
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So for you it's just a question of scale? You would have happily accepted a death score 2, 3, 4x as many and not had a lockdown so as to limit short term economic damage?
 
After that briefing I believe Boris has damaged his position and reputation. He refused to answer in detail and brushed aside most questions. He did not answer the one about when he knew of the trip from London to Durham. Boris blanket answered that after extensive discussion with Mr Cummings he accepted his explanation.
 
Nick Real Deal said:
After that briefing I believe Boris has damaged his position and reputation. He refused to answer in detail and brushed aside most questions. He did not answer the one about when he knew of the trip from London to Durham. Boris blanket answered that after extensive discussion with Mr Cummings he accepted his explanation.
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I agree. I think it was a very poor, almost insulting performance from Johnson. He must rate Cummings extremely highly because he's taken a massive political gamble. And he's taken a big risk in alienating the population many of whom may well tell the government to stick their social distancing guidelines.
 
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Gary Onedaysoon said:
I agree. I think it was a very poor, almost insulting performance from Johnson. He must rate Cummins extremely highly because he's taken a massive political gamble. And he's taken a big risk in alienating the population many of whom may well tell the government to stick their social distancing guidelines.
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Maybe Cummings has plenty dirt to dish on Boris if he gets forced out !!
 
Very interesting change to the COVID-19 tracking app today. The original questions were based on the COVID symptoms. A few weeks back, we were additionally asked whether we had been tested and what were the results. Today, we are being asked to confirm how many times we leave the house and for what reasons.

It will be interesting to see how truthful people are being in the app that feeds the big data. I hope they have algorithms that can factor in the inaccuracy of the inputs.

Having tested negative myself, I did talk to an occupational health nurse this week who had tested positive. She shared that she came out in red spots at the end of the cycle. She also said that 6 weeks after having it, her spyrology readings are about 90% of what they were. She fears her lung capacity may never return.
 
Hypocrisy comes to mind....but I know not the true facts and the media just want a juicy story....in the scheme of things it is pretty trivial...many people have broken the rules either deliberately or inadvertently...he happens to be in the public eye.
 
Greavswasthegreatest said:
Hypocrisy comes to mind....but I know not the true facts and the media just want a juicy story....in the scheme of things it is pretty trivial...many people have broken the rules either deliberately or inadvertently...he happens to be in the public eye.
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There have been some tough accounts of how elderly parents have died alone because family could not visit , a woman with a new diagnosis of breast cancer couldnt visit her mum for a cuddle to console her, a woman with Covid needed help to look after her child but didnt go to her mums because she didnt think she was allowed.
Cummings travelled 250 miles with his wife who was sympomatic and he may have been, the child was in the car. In the end no care was needed for the child.
Cummings did not know how bad he or his wife would be. The rules are clear, if infected stay at home. By travelling he endangered other people.
Even from the compassion point of view in acting out of protection for his child it doesn't make sense. Care for the child could have been provided in London, there is provision for it by the state of parents become incapacitated. I'm am sure Cummings could have found an alternative to state help though.
Boris Johnson addressed the public and said.....do not pass on childcare to elderly parents. Cummings parents apparently did not care for the child, his wife said her husband was quite ill and bedridden, she was also symptomatic so who did look after the kid ? Doesn't sound a safe environment to be looked after by 2 infected parents.

Cummings sneery attitude and disregard for the public offends me.
 
Harry-Kari said:
The point of this study, if the prediction is accurate, is that nowhere near enough people have been infected to produce herd immunity.

Lockdown may well have produced a large population of uninfected people but the virus isn’t going anywhere, so without a vaccine infections are bound to rise, but that doesn’t mean a doomsday pr3diction of hundreds of thousands of deaths as an estimated 95% of infected people survive and the IFR rate for the UK is yet to be accurately assessed. In many studies around the world the IFR rate is practically the same as for influenza...in some cases lower....so the issue will be has the flattening of the economy been justified....we will see.
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Australia have performed that very study. The induced coma of our economy has cost $360 Billion and rising, but without scratching the surface of the social and mental cost, and the upcoming Armageddon in Sept once the stimulus is cut off, who knows the full extent of the damage.
What we do know is that is appears the cost per death is too high. We've spent (borrowed) similar coin to the UK in terms of per capita, but with only 102 deaths, and approx 50 patients in hospital, 12 or so on non intrusive ventilators. With all due respect to friends an family of the deceased, this will take many years, if not decades to recover...if at all.

A depression will most surely follow, and I only just learned on Saturday, a friends mate started a new business in Feb 2020...a Gym of all things. Borrowed $300k only to be shut down within days. His funeral was last week, leaving behind a wife and two children.
 
Nick Real Deal said:
After that briefing I believe Boris has damaged his position and reputation. He refused to answer in detail and brushed aside most questions. He did not answer the one about when he knew of the trip from London to Durham. Boris blanket answered that after extensive discussion with Mr Cummings he accepted his explanation.
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He isn't a leader, simple as that. He is a joker always has been.
 
Spursex said:
So for you it's just a question of scale? You would have happily accepted a death score 2, 3, 4x as many and not had a lockdown so as to limit short term economic damage?
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EX, the problem of those type of predictions is that they are based upon the discredited Ferguson model.....it maybe that we would have had the same number of deaths without lockdown-down but with social distancing...we will never know......maybe we would have needed the Nightingale wards that were built when actually we didn’t.....given that it has been suggested that the peak infection rate occurred before lockdown is it lockdown itself that flattened the curve, eventually, or did it just delay the inevitable and leave us with a defenceless population....current estimates for daily infection rates are around 9-10,000 so I’m not sure where the statement about the virus vanishing is coming from.

Also, the impact of the lockdown measures and government propaganda on those vulnerable people who have died from non-Covid health issues due to lack of treatment because of the focus on Covid, plus those in the cancer community who have missed treatments or diagnosis.

Anyway, I guess these questions and many others will be debated long after the this mess has resolved itself, but given the performance of Boris over the last few days I remain unconvinced of the governmentability to make sensible decisions in the management of this situation.
 
Greavswasthegreatest said:
Hypocrisy comes to mind....but I know not the true facts and the media just want a juicy story....in the scheme of things it is pretty trivial...many people have broken the rules either deliberately or inadvertently...he happens to be in the public eye.
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He's more than just a public figure though. He's Johnson's henchman and architect behind every policy made since the election campaign. He's also unelected and therefore unaccountable.

The real issue was with Johnson yesterday though. At the briefing he said he held a thorough investigation and found Cummings to have acted reasonably and legally. Which is fine if it is true. But he should have been transparent about the investigation. A variety of valid questions were asked about Cummings and the wider implications of his actions, but Johnson stonewalled all of those questions.
 
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Greavswasthegreatest said:
Hypocrisy comes to mind....but I know not the true facts and the media just want a juicy story....in the scheme of things it is pretty trivial...many people have broken the rules either deliberately or inadvertently...he happens to be in the public eye.
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Disagree Greavsie....he is one of the elite ( god help us) group setting the rules....if he broke them then no one has broken the rules because they are meaningless.
 
Spursex said:
I'm as certain as I can be, that it was, but then hindsight is a wonderful thing.
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I think that is disingenuous to put it down to hindsight. This wasn't a niche viewpoint that just a few people were saying. The overwhelming advice at the time was to shut down. Boris decided not to.
 
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