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Toon_NoMatterWot

Toon_NoMatterWot

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We'll be getting drip fed the latest account sheet by Ashley's cohorts in the next couple of weeks and with that a watered down version of the BBC.

By that I mean what is on display is not necessarily the whole truth but more in how the club wants things to be portrayed.

The last accounts showed our last season in the premier league being tarnished with a warning that the next filing would see a considerable difference with being in a self inflicted less commercial division, so the reality should see the reverse come to the fore.

It wont though.

Sales that were forgotten in media driven dialogue and instead replaced by the white lies of the prospective spend last season cant be lied about on the finance sheet but the tone of it will do its best to deceive. The club may have emptied one pocket to allow Rafa a little spend last season but it stuffed the other to the brim. This one is the forgotten pawn in the bigger picture.

The potential loss of income surely offset by transfer profit and massive wage cuts. Let's also not forget the fact of a parachute payment being factored into the equation, whether the club ever received it in theory. it doesn't matter. The damage has already been inspected, the fall out dealt with and in the real world we're eighteen months or so on from that scenario.

The reality that is here surrounding the new accounts is that things are bright and positive with money there to spend for Rafa in the Summer. The message from it should be about what the ambitious target of 17th or above will prospectively create but like the aforementioned media company or the various versions of the gutter press, the negatives will be fed on and dragged out.

The self inflicted state of Newcastle United under Mike Ashley is a rhetorical statement that is borne out of the way it is run. Nothing more, nothing less.

The accounts would look a hell of a lot better with an intelligent sort running the show but then again, we know what the benefits of running the club are to Ashley and the club's true accounts dont show that so ultimately they will be yet another waste of time.

It wont stop us being fed the same story from last year.
 
I suspect our owner already had transfer prevention plans in place, and is eying windfalls from the few bright sparks of this campaign. Leopard and spots springs to mind. He has already been quoted as saying he is not interested in investing, and I can't see him agreeing to a sale at an attractive price for any potential buyer.
 
That's a pretty decent summary, Toony.

I come from a slightly different angle but agree with that.

One of the factors to be aware of is Financial Fair Play which relates to profits. Clubs have limits on what they are allowed to lose over a cycle. What could have been a loss will show as a profit because of player sales. Ashley did have to put some cash in because some of those transfers will be received in instalments. I have little doubt that he has grabbed it all back by now.

Aside from paper profit, we always have to consider cash flow. If reports are to be believed, we made a paper profit of almost £30 on Sissoko but £6-12m will go as cash into that accounting period.

We have seen the net spends of other promoted clubs; Brighton £70m and Huddersfield £44.5m, both with lower commercial and gate revenue potential than us with around £16m. The other two clubs have presumably taken advantage of overdrafts knowing that a big chunk of payments will come in at the end of this season. Ashley is widely reported as avoiding overdraft situations.

You are also quite right to highlight tat there is cash to spend in the summer, in theory at least. Ashley's own loans can be cashed in at any time.

Given the lack of spend, it is reasonable to assume that any decent owner would be able to invest at least £60m net in summer and a further £20m in Jan for 2018-19, without going into overdraft, maybe more depending on those instalments and more still if we are to buy on staged payment terms.

Whether Ashley is a decent owner is a subject for a debate. That debate would be easily won by one side of the argument.
 
That's a pretty decent summary, Toony.

I come from a slightly different angle but agree with that.

One of the factors to be aware of is Financial Fair Play which relates to profits. Clubs have limits on what they are allowed to lose over a cycle. What could have been a loss will show as a profit because of player sales. Ashley did have to put some cash in because some of those transfers will be received in instalments. I have little doubt that he has grabbed it all back by now.

Aside from paper profit, we always have to consider cash flow. If reports are to be believed, we made a paper profit of almost £30 on Sissoko but £6-12m will go as cash into that accounting period.

We have seen the net spends of other promoted clubs; Brighton £70m and Huddersfield £44.5m, both with lower commercial and gate revenue potential than us with around £16m. The other two clubs have presumably taken advantage of overdrafts knowing that a big chunk of payments will come in at the end of this season. Ashley is widely reported as avoiding overdraft situations.

You are also quite right to highlight tat there is cash to spend in the summer, in theory at least. Ashley's own loans can be cashed in at any time.

Given the lack of spend, it is reasonable to assume that any decent owner would be able to invest at least £60m net in summer and a further £20m in Jan for 2018-19, without going into overdraft, maybe more depending on those instalments and more still if we are to buy on staged payment terms.

Whether Ashley is a decent owner is a subject for a debate. That debate would be easily won by one side of the argument.
 
The away game at Everton now moved to Monday at the behest of Sky makes that eleven times this season that they have greased Ashley's palm with a million quid. He must love Sky.
 
Toon_NoMatterWot - 22/3/2018 20:16

cheers Rex. Im not in the camp that thinks Rafa is nailed on to walk so the accounts may also try to deceive his ambitions also.
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He might, he might not.

I become more and more impressed with him. I thought I knew how he worked but just looking at the progress of individuals is incredible, especially given perceived limitations. However, he is still working with a largely Championship squad that has seen net disinvestment since he arrived.

No, not destined to walk but he knows what he needs. Something tells me he was half expecting what Ashley has dished up, after all, we knew and Rafa's research is deep in many aspects. An article I never published goes into his holistic approach to management.

Summer is probably make or break for the long term though. He knows about LFF and what it means. He knows that Ashley needs him more than he needs Ashley.

I really hope that on this occasion, Rafa's political side will come to the fore, be that with Ashley or recognising his attraction to any party who could take the club over.
 
I don't believe for a second that Rafa didn't know exactly what he was getting into when deciding to work for Ashley.
 
keggy_keagal - 22/3/2018 22:42

I don't believe for a second that Rafa didn't know exactly what he was getting into when deciding to work for Ashley.
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This type of uncomfortable truth is viewed as a negative attack on rafa by the majority of our support.

Furthermore it's guaranteed to kill debate amongst those who refuse to see him for what he really is,a kryptonite enhanced pawn in Ashley's latest and best chess move to date,but instead more like a modern day El-Cid.


 
We must all have done it some time, gone for a job that looks to be the sort of challenge that only we can complete. We have also looked through rose tinted spectacles.

The season that Ashley backed McLaren leaves enough of a glimmer of light to think yes, if I play the boss right, I can have the funds to invest too.

Did he know what he was getting in to? Yes, probably but he is enough of a strategist and has sufficient self belief to think he might have been able to manipulate the club towards his own objectives.

If he gets his £80m net spend, he has done well. If he leaves, then at least he has tried and everyone can see he kept us up despite Ashley. His stock remains high and he should have respect for having a go at renovating a club that Ashley has torn apart.

OK, I might be biased, after all, I was the first to go live on the internet with a plea to sign Rafa only a few days (9th Jan 2016) after he left Real.
 
Mike Ashley for Rafa is like having a permanent excuse clause. Side not doing well , "we need players" , side doing well " don't get your hopes because we still need players and depth" . Rafa's absolutely benefiting from this as much as Ashley is . You'd almost think they were in it together......oh hang on
 
keggy_keagal - 22/3/2018 22:42

I don't believe for a second that Rafa didn't know exactly what he was getting into when deciding to work for Ashley.
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Agreed, Rafa clearly isn't stupid. Why would he not have worked out what the rest of the football world have known for years. Might he not have spoken to Keegan or Shearer?
 
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