Missing Malaysia Airlines plane

spursgirl_4_life

Vital Football Legend
No thread on this yet...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26510027

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26513077

How can a plane just disappear?!
 
spursgirl_4_life - 11/3/2014 09:33

No thread on this yet...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26510027

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26513077

How can a plane just disappear?!

There are many theories; but chief among them seems to be the most credible; i.e. it suffered a catastrophe explosion at altitude and fragmented to not very much (of course the explosion could have beena fault or a bomb).

Or, it could have simply nose dived at speed into the sea and again been so fragmented that the tiny pieces left simply (so far) have sunk to the bottom or been washed further away by currents (outside of the search pattern)...

Few realise that airplanes travel through 'dead zones' i.e. no ATC radar reaches that far and are only tracked by radio between radar control zones - what it doesn't explain is why military coverage doesn't have them (or at least why they haven't yet disclosed fully what they have) as they almost certainly would have recordings of data..

My guess is that soone or later clues will appear and that will allow them to narrow the search area, which on the radio this morning they said was the size of Belguim!
 
The 777 is an incredible bit of kit. I'd be absolutely amazed if there's been a problem, with the aircraft itself, catastrophic enough to cause a crash with no visible debris. The aircraft in question had it's maintenance checks recently as well.
 
The more I think about it, the more I come to believe that someone would have to make an effort to take a 777 down this hard, without trace.
 
This plane is down. It will be found and as EX says so badly fragmented we have simply missed it.
 
It is of course all an American plot:

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/iranian-lawmaker-dismisses-blame-attached-to-flight-370/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0
 
Obviously I've been keeping a very close eye on this because it's a 777 and an expert today said what i'd been thinking from the beginning; it would be incredible if this wasn't an act of sabotage.
 
ahx00 - 12/3/2014 18:44

Obviously I've been keeping a very close eye on this because it's a 777 and an expert today said what i'd been thinking from the beginning; it would be incredible if this wasn't an act of sabotage.

I understand why you'd say that, as almost certainly the event (whatever it was) was sudden and catastrophic.

Perhaps there can still be another explaination other than sabotage (I personally think now it isn't only because of the absence of claims from anyone/any group that are deemed to be credible)...


below, at the moment seems more credible to me:



Boeing 777 weak spot warning

American transport officials warned of a potential weak spot in Boeing 777s which could lead to the "loss of structural integrity of the aircraft" four months before the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.

The Federal Aviation Administration in Washington drew up an Airworthiness Directive in November. It was triggered by reports of cracking in the fuselage skin underneath a Boeing aircraft's satellite antennae.

In its directive, the FAA, which is responsible for supervising the safety of American-made aircraft such as Boeing, told airlines to look out for corrosion under the fuselage skin.

This, the FAA said, could lead to a situation where the fuselage was compromised leading to possible rapid decompression, as well as the plane breaking up.

"We received a report of cracking and corrosion in the fuselage skin underneath the SATCOM antenna adapter," the FAA said. "During a maintenance planning data inspection, one operator reported a 16-inch (40cm) crack under the three-bay SATCOM antenna adapter plate in the crown skin of the fuselage on an aeroplane that was 14 years old with approximately 14,000 total flight cycles.

"Subsequent to this crack finding, the same operator inspected 42 other aeroplanes that are between 6 and 16 years old and found some local corrosion, but no other cracking. Cracking and corrosion in the fuselage skin, if not corrected, could lead to rapid decompression and loss of structural integrity of the aeroplane."

The FAA directive in November called for additional checks to be incorporated into the routine maintenance schedule of the worldwide 777 Boeing fleet.

According to a Malaysia Airlines spokesman, the missing aircraft was serviced on February 23, with further maintenance scheduled for June 19.
 
This report seems to be a credible eye witness sighting...


Burning plane sighting not verified



Tweet on Twitter Share on Facebook

Vietnam says it has investigated a possible sighting of the missing Malaysian Airlines plane reported by a New Zealand oil rig worker but has so far not come up with anything.

Vietnam's air traffic management has confirmed it received an email from Mike McKay, who is working on an oil rig off Vung Tau in south-eastern Vietnam, saying he'd seen a burning object in the sky on the day flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing disappeared.

It's the second email sent by Mr Mackay. His first email, sent the morning after the plane went missing, gave a detailed account of seeing an aircraft in flames.

His latest message is as follows:

"Gentlemen. I believe I saw the Malaysian Airlines flight come down. The timing is right.

"I tried to contact Malaysian and Vietnamese officials several days ago. But I do not know if the message has been received.

"I am on the oil rig Songa-Mercur.

"I observed the plane burning at high altitude at a compass bearing of 265 to 275 degrees from our surface location.

"While I observed (the plane) it appeared to be in one piece.

"From when I first saw the burning (plane?) until the flames went out (at high altitude) was 10-15 seconds.

"There was no lateral movement so it was either coming toward our position stationary (falling) or going away from our location.

"The general position of the observation was perpendicular/south-west of the normal flight path and at a lower altitude than the normal flight paths.

Mr McKay ended by giving his full name and his New Zealand passport number.

Vietnam sent an aircraft to investigate the possible sighting.
Last communication normal

The Boeing 777 went missing on Saturday with 239 people on board. It vanished about an hour after taking off from Kuala Lumpur, as it flew over the South China Sea, south of Vietnam's Ca Mau peninsula. No distress signal or message was sent.

Malaysian authorities have revealed the plane's last communication at a news conference held in Beijing for relatives of the 154 Chinese who are among the missing passengers.

In reply to a radio message from Malaysian air control, flight MH370 radioed back "All right, roger that".

As the plane reached the boundary between Malaysian and Vietnamese airspace, Malaysian air control announced it was handing over to Ho Chi Minh City control. Minutes later, all contact with the plane was lost.

Several leads pursued so far have proven not to be linked to the plane and the BBC's correspondent in Kuala Lumpur says that after more than four days of fruitless searching, an element of desperation is creeping into the search operation.

The search, which involves 42 ships and 39 aircraft from 12 different countries, has been widened to waters off both sides of the Malayan peninsula but Malaysia's air force chief has denied reports the plane was tracked by military radar to the Malacca Strait in the west.
 
Spursex - 12/3/2014 18:52
Cracking and corrosion in the fuselage skin, if not corrected, could lead to rapid decompression and loss of structural integrity of the aeroplane."

That is standard terminology. That phrase appears in almost every structural service bulletin because it's required to write a worst-case-scenario for if the operator makes absolutely no attempt to fix the problem, at all.

The airplane had maintenance checks a week ago, I believe.

 
ahx00 - 12/3/2014 20:00

Spursex - 12/3/2014 18:52
Cracking and corrosion in the fuselage skin, if not corrected, could lead to rapid decompression and loss of structural integrity of the aeroplane."

That is standard terminology. That phrase appears in almost every structural service bulletin because we're required to write a worst-case-scenario for if the operator makes absolutely no attempt to fix the problem, at all.

I did already note that and I do understand the nature and dynamics of structural failure, but as you will know Components that fail by fatigue usually undergo three separate stages of crack growth, which are (as far as I know) still even when addressed could lead to catastrophic failure ( I get this from one of the companies I hold an exec position in that supplies aerospace metals/composites etc!)

• Initiation of a fatigue crack. This can be influenced by
stress concentrations such as material defects or design.

• Propagation of the fatigue crack. This is progressive cyclic
growth of the crack.

• Final sudden failure. Eventually, the propagating crack
reaches a critical size at which the remaining material
cannot support the applied loads and sudden rupture
occurs.

Fatigue failures generally leave characteristic markings on
the fracture surface of cracks from which the failure
investigator can deduce a great deal of information.

All I'm saying at the moment AX is that component failure that leads to complete obliteration of an aircraft/disperal of debris into small fragments is not unknown, it may even be that all the major heavy components that were left simply sunk to the bottom of the sea...

I just think it's too early too assume foul play.
 
I don't know if it IS foul play, I just believe that the most-likely scenario is caused by someone... either sabotage or severely, severely lax maintenance.

I genuinely, genuinely would be amazed if it was purely a sudden structural failure.
 
ahx00 - 12/3/2014 20:21

I don't know if it IS foul play, I just believe that the most-likely scenario is caused by someone... either sabotage or severely, severely lax maintenance.

I genuinely, genuinely would be amazed if it was purely a sudden structural failure.

I'd have to say I wouldn't be. As you know Rolls Royce get real time engine updates from planes in the sky, flying right now. The number of contained engine faults/failures is larger than most would think. Uncontained engine failures have been know to have fatal consequences.

If you monitor terrorist 'successes' as I once did for a number of years, they all follow a certain pattern, not least of which is that the perpetrators achieve nothing unless they can lay claim to the event.
 
ahx00 - 15/3/2014 09:18

Pretty much confirmed it's deliberate now.

So far it doesn't make sense though; unless whoever did this has opened up a back channel to authorities we're not aware of.

When terrorists take action or even an individual motivated to take action they do so with the clear intention of 'making a statement' or making a demand(s). It's normally fairly quick that a verifiable message is passed to authorities.

The absence of this (at least as far as we know) still leaves the field of possibilities open in my view, so whilst the balance of probaility is now swinging towards a deliberate action, from what we hear so far, I remain unconvinced.

Whilst the apparent change of direction and changes were in the area between national transport coverage radar, it could still have been caused by other events. We've had examples of auto flying after hypoxia caused by raid decompression has knocked out crew and passengers ....so just for these possibilities alone I remain not yet totally convinced that the dissappearnce was/is deliberate - as hiding one of these planes in any region - it could have flown to and not be detected- is from my sigint days almost an impossibility unless it had the capability to ground hug like a cruise missle.

If anyone is going to clear this up it will be the US, they have significant listening and monitoring bases in the area and the data tracks might well be the key to at least isolating the point at which it would have run out of fuel over the Indian ocean or made landfall in one of the two corridors that they think it could now have flown.

If they haven't aleady, once they confirm (and if recieved by more than one sat), and triangulate the pings from the onboard monitoring systems it should at least give some real idea of heading, speed and height.

IF they can establish that someone/some group has managed to take the plane and land it, it will be a fantastic shot in the arm for the relatives as they might then soon have hope of an eventual return.

Amazing how many times with aircraft security we think 'not possible'..and then we find that determined well prepared groups show us just how vunerable we remain...

Anyway, everything crossed that this jet isn't at the bottom of the sea.
 
Insurance or long-term ransom plans are still possibilities. For both of those the plane needs to thoroughly disappear.